Gaining local accuracy while not losing generality — extending the range of gap model applications

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (6) ◽  
pp. 1092-1107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Didion ◽  
Andrea D. Kupferschmid ◽  
Andreas Zingg ◽  
Lorenz Fahse ◽  
Harald Bugmann
Keyword(s):  
Leaf Area ◽  
Forest Succession ◽  
Light Availability ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Model Complexity ◽  
Gap Model ◽  
Local Accuracy ◽  
Gap Models

For the study of long-term processes in forests, gap models generally sacrifice accuracy (i.e., simulating system behavior in a quantitatively accurate manner) for generality (i.e., representing a broad range of systems’ behaviors with the same model). We selected the gap model ForClim to evaluate whether the local accuracy of forest succession models can be increased based on a parsimonious modeling approach that avoids the additional complexity of a 3D crown model, thus keeping parameter requirements low. We improved the representation of tree crowns by introducing feedbacks between (i) light availability and leaf area per tree and (ii) leaf area per tree and diameter growth rate to account for the self-pruning in real stands. The local accuracy of the new model, ForClim v2.9.5, was considerably improved in simulations at three long-term forest research sites in the Swiss Alps, while its generality was maintained as shown in simulations of potential natural vegetation along a broad environmental gradient in Central Europe. We conclude that the predictive ability of a model does not depend on its complexity, but on the reproduction of patterns. Most importantly, model complexity should be consistent with the objectives of the study and the level of system understanding.

scholarly journals Using forest gap models and experimental data to explore long-term effects of tree diversity on the productivity of mixed planted forests

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier Morin ◽  
Thomas Damestoy ◽  
Maude Toigo ◽  
Bastien Castagneyrol ◽  
Hervé Jactel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rotation Period ◽  
Tree Diversity ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Forest Gap ◽  
Gap Model ◽  
Mixing Effect ◽  
Full Rotation ◽  
New Forest ◽  
Gap Models

Abstract Key message In this exploratory study, we show how combining the strength of tree diversity experiment with the long-term perspective offered by forest gap models allows testing the mixture yielding behavior across a full rotation period. Our results on a SW France example illustrate how mixing maritime pine with birch may produce an overyielding (i.e., a positive net biodiversity effect). Context Understanding the link between tree diversity and stand productivity is a key issue at a time when new forest management methods are investigated to improve carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation. Well-controlled tree diversity experiments have been set up over the last decades, but they are still too young to yield relevant results from a long-term perspective. Alternatively, forest gap models appear as appropriate tools to study the link between diversity and productivity as they can simulate mixed forest growth over an entire forestry cycle. Aims We aimed at testing whether a forest gap model could first reproduce the results from a tree diversity experiment, using its plantation design as input, and then predict the species mixing effect on productivity and biomass in the long term. Methods Here, we used data from different forest experimental networks to calibrate the gap model ForCEEPS for young pine (Pinus pinaster) and birch (Betula pendula) stands. Then, we used the refined model to compare the productivity of pure and mixed pine and birch stands over a 50-year cycle. The mixing effect was tested for two plantation designs, i.e., species substitution and species addition, and at two tree densities. Results Regarding the comparison with the experiment ORPHEE (thus on the short term), the model well reproduced the species interactions observed in the mixed stands. Simulations showed an overyielding (i.e., a positive net biodiversity effect) in pine-birch mixtures in all cases and during the full rotation period. A transgressive overyielding was detected in mixtures resulting from birch addition to pine stands at low density. These results were mainly due to a positive mixing effect on pine growth being larger than the negative effect on birch growth. Conclusion Although this study remains explorative, calibrating gap models with data from monospecific stands and validating with data from the manipulative tree diversity experiment (ORPHEE) offers a powerful tool for further investigation of the productivity of forest mixtures. Improving our understanding of how abiotic and biotic factors, including diversity, influence the functioning of forest ecosystems should help to reconsider new forest managements optimizing ecosystem services.

Modeling the long-term effects of disturbances on forest succession, Olympic Peninsula, Washington

1986 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virginia H. Dale ◽  
Miles Hemstrom ◽  
Jerry Franklin
Keyword(s):  
Leaf Area ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Forest Succession ◽  
Douglas Fir ◽  
Western Hemlock ◽  
Forest Composition ◽  
Silver Fir ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Olympic Peninsula

A model of forest development has been adapted for the Pacific Northwest. The regeneration, growth, and death of individual trees are tracked for simulated 0.2 ha plots and tree attributes are aggregated to provide stand measures. The model includes the influence of temperature, soil moisture, light tolerance, and competition on tree growth. Long-term simulations for Douglas-fir dominated forests on the western Olympic Peninsula show that the stand is eventually dominated by western hemlock with silver fir being codominant. Even after 1200 years of subsequent stand development, silver fir fails to replace western hemlock indicating that this is a self-replicating and stable community. Fire, windthrows, insect disturbance, and clear-cut logging followed by replanting are incorporated into the model as single-event disturbances to a 500-year-old forest. For those cases where large Douglas-fir survive the disturbance, stand biomass and leaf area patterns are not significantly impacted until the death of the last large Douglas-fir. The projections were all carried out to the time when the forest is dominated by western hemlock and silver fir. At that time, the differential effect of the earlier disturbance is not apparent from the forest composition, biomass, or leaf area patterns except for the insect disturbance. Following the removal of all Douglas-fir by an insect, leaf area fluctuates regularly with a period of 600 years.

scholarly journals Beyond forest succession: a gap model to study ecosystem functioning and tree community composition under climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier Morin ◽  
François de Coligny ◽  
Nicolas Martin-StPaul ◽  
Harald Bugmann ◽  
Maxime Cailleret ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Composition ◽  
Community Composition ◽  
Ecosystem Functioning ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Gap Model ◽  
Forest Stands ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Gap Models

ABSTRACTClimate change impacts forest functioning and dynamics, and large uncertainties remain regarding the interactions between species composition, demographic processes, and environmental drivers. There are few robust tools available to link these processes, which precludes accurate projections and recommendations for long-term forest management. Forest gap-models present a balance between complexity and generality and are widely used in predictive forest ecology. However, their relevance to tackle questions about the links between species composition, climate and forest functioning is unclear. In this regard, demonstrating the ability of gap-models to predict the growth of forest stands at the annual time scale – representing a sensitive and integrated signal of tree functioning and mortality risk - appears as a fundamental step.In this study, we aimed at assessing the ability of a gap-model to accurately predict forest growth in the short-term and potential community composition in the long-term, across a wide range of species and environmental conditions. To do so, we present the gap-model ForCEEPS, calibrated using an original parameterization procedure for the main tree species in France. ForCEEPS was shown to satisfactorily predict forest annual growth (averaged over a few years) at the plot level from mountain to Mediterranean climates, regardless the species. Such an accuracy was not gained at the cost of losing precision for long-term predictions, as the model showed a strong ability to predict potential community composition along a gradient of sites with contrasted conditions. The mechanistic relevance of ForCEEPS parameterization was explored by showing the congruence between the values of key model parameter and species functional traits. We further showed that accounting for the spatial configuration of crowns within forest stands, the effects of climatic constraints and the variability of shade tolerances in the species community are all crucial to better predict short-term productivity with gap-models.The dual ability of predicting short-term functioning and long-term community composition, as well as the balance between generality and realism (i.e., predicting accuracy) of the new generation of gap-models may open great perspectives for the exploration of the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships, species coexistence mechanisms, and the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems.

scholarly journals Comparison of numerical and standard sarnat grading using the NICHD and SIBEN methods

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian H. Walsh ◽  
Chelsea Munster ◽  
Hoda El-Shibiny ◽  
Edward Yang ◽  
Terrie E. Inder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Cerebral Injury ◽  
Neonatal Encephalopathy ◽  
Minimum Threshold ◽  
Term Outcome ◽  
Long Term Outcome ◽  
Grading Systems ◽  
Good Agreement

Abstract Objective The NICHD and SIBEN assessments are adapted from the Sarnat grade, and used to determine severity of neonatal encephalopathy (NE). We compare NICHD and SIBEN methods, and their ability to define a minimum threshold associated with significant cerebral injury. Study design Between 2016 and 2019, 145 infants with NE (77-mild; 65-moderate; 3-severe) were included. NICHD and SIBEN grade and numerical scores were assigned. Kappa scores described agreement between methods, and ROC curves their ability to predict MR injury. Results Good agreement existed between grading systems (K = 0.86). SIBEN defined more infants as moderate, and less as mild, than NICHD (p < 0.001). Both numerical scores were superior to standard grades in predicting MR injury. Conclusion Despite good agreement between methods, SIBEN defines more infants as moderate NE. Both numerical scores were superior to standard grade, and comparable to each other, in defining a minimum threshold for cerebral injury. Further assessment contrasting their predictive ability for long-term outcome is required.

Dispersal of Goeppertia marantifolia clonal offspring increases with greater canopy openness and larger plant size

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
David P. Matlaga ◽  
Rachel K. Snyder ◽  
Carol C. Horvitz
Keyword(s):  
Leaf Area ◽  
Light Availability ◽  
Plant Size ◽  
Dispersal Distance ◽  
Permanent Plots ◽  
Canopy Openness ◽  
Parent Plant ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Corcovado National Park ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract:Many plants within the neotropical understorey produce both seeds and clonal offspring. Plant attributes (i.e. size) and variability in light can influence seed dispersal but it is not known if these factors influence the dispersal of clonal offspring. Our goal was to determine if canopy openness and plant size influence clonal-offspring dispersal of the herb Goeppertia marantifolia, which produces clonal bulbils on above-ground shoots. We monitored plants in permanent plots with varying levels of canopy openness in Corcovado National Park, Costa Rica. We recorded canopy openness, leaf area and the distance clonal offspring travelled from their parent plant (N = 283). Our path analysis model demonstrated that canopy openness had a strong positive effect on dispersal distance, while the association between clonal-offspring dispersal distance and parent plant leaf area was only weakly positive. On average, plants experiencing high canopy openness dispersed their clonal offspring further than plants under low canopy openness (124 cm vs. 79 cm, respectively). Contrary to studies on species that utilize rhizomes and stolons for clonal reproduction, we found that in this bulbil-producing species light availability is positively associated with clonal dispersal distance. Therefore, the influence of resource availability on spatial population dynamics of clonal species may be influenced by the species’ growth-form.

scholarly journals On the effect of short-term climate variability on mountain glaciers: insights from a case study

2013 ◽  
Vol 59 (217) ◽  
pp. 992-1006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Farinotti
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Mountain Glaciers ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Glacier Ice ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Set Up

AbstractStudies addressing the response of glaciers to climate change have so far analyzed the effect of long-term trends in a particular set of meteorological variables only, implicitly assuming an unaltered climatic variability. Here a framework for distinguishing between year-to-year, month-to-month and day-to-day variability is proposed. Synthetically generated temperature and precipitation time series following the same long-term trend but with altered variability are then used to force an ice-dynamics model set up for Rhonegletscher, Swiss Alps. In the case of temperature, variations in the day-to-day variability are shown to have a larger effect than changes at the yearly scale, while in the case of precipitation, variability changes are assessed as having negligible impact. A first set of scenarios is used to show that compared to reference, doubling the temperature variability can reduce glacier ice volume by up to 64% within half a decade. A second set derived from the results of the European ENSEMBLES project, however, shows that such changes are expected to remain below 8% even for extreme scenarios. Although the latter results relativize the importance of the effect in the near future, the analyses indicate that at least caution is required when assuming ‘unchanged variability’.

Predictive value of short-term migration in determining long-term stable fixation in cemented and cementless total knee arthroplasties

2019 ◽  
Vol 101-B (7_Supple_C) ◽  
pp. 55-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. K. Laende ◽  
C. G. Richardson ◽  
M. J. Dunbar
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Value ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Porous Metal ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Term Follow Up ◽  
Total Knee ◽  
Total Point ◽  
Cementless Components

Aims Early implant migration measured with radiostereometric analysis (RSA) has been proposed as a useful predictor of long-term fixation of tibial components in total knee arthroplasty. Evaluation of actual long-term fixation is of interest for cemented components, as well as for cementless fixation, which may offer long-term advantages once osseointegration has occurred. The objective of this study was to compare the long-term migration with one- and two-year migration to evaluate the predictive ability of short-term migration data and to compare migration and inducible displacement between cemented and cementless (porous metal monoblock) components at least ten years postoperatively. Patients and Methods Patients who had participated in RSA migration studies with two-year follow-up were recruited to return for a long-term follow-up, at least ten years from surgery. Two cemented tibial designs from two manufacturers and one porous metal monoblock cementless tibial design were studied. At the long-term follow-up, patients had supine RSA examinations to determine migration and loaded examinations (single leg stance) to determine inducible displacement. In total, 79 patients (54 female) returned, with mean time since surgery of 12 years (10 to 14). There were 58 cemented and 21 cementless tibial components. Results Migration at one year and two years was significantly correlated with long-term migration (p < 0.001). Median migration at the long-term follow-up was 0.6 mm (maximum total point motion; interquartile range (IQR) 0.4 to 0.9) for the cemented group and 0.6 mm (IQR 0.3 to 1.1) for the cementless group with no difference between groups (p = 0.99). Inducible displacement was significantly lower for the cementless components (p < 0.001). Conclusion Long-term migration was strongly correlated with two-year migration. Although long-term migration was not different for cemented or cementless tibial components, inducible displacement at the long-term visit was significantly lower for these cementless components, suggesting superior fixation. These findings support the predictive value of short-term migration in determining long-term fixation. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B(7 Supple C):55–60

Long-term investigation of a deep-seated creeping landslide in crystalline rock. Part I. Geological and hydromechanical factors controlling the Campo Vallemaggia landslide

2007 ◽  
Vol 44 (10) ◽  
pp. 1157-1180 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Bonzanigo ◽  
E. Eberhardt ◽  
S. Loew
Keyword(s):  
Complex Structure ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Crystalline Rock ◽  
Fault Zones ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Metamorphic Rocks ◽  
Artesian Water ◽  
Creep Deformations

Slope movements of the deep-seated Campo Vallemaggia landslide in the southern Swiss Alps have been reported for over 200 years. Surface and borehole investigations of the unstable mass reveal an up to 300 m deep complex structure incorporating 800 million cubic metres of disturbed metamorphic rocks divided into blocks along primary fault zones. An average slide velocity of approximately 5 cm/year can be calculated from various monitoring data recorded between 1892 and 1995. Block movements primarily involve mechanisms relating to multiple shear surfaces, but in cases where slide blocks are constrained by other blocks, creep deformations are observed. Borehole investigations revealed the presence of artesian water pressures, which when integrated with inclinometer and surface geodetic data, helped to provide key insights into the underlying instability mechanisms. This paper reports the findings of an extensive mapping, geophysical, and monitoring investigation carried out over a 20 year period. Results from the analysis are presented with respect to the hydromechanical factors controlling the unstable mass, the significance of which were instrumental in resolving conflicts with regards to the slope mitigation measures required to stabilize the slope. In Part II (see companion paper, this issue), the stabilization works performed at Campo Vallemaggia and their effectiveness are presented.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Performance of a Forest Succession Model to Predict the Long-Term Dynamics of Tree Species in Mixed Boreal Forests Using Historical Data in Northern Ontario, Canada

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1181
Author(s):  
Guy R. Larocque ◽  
F. Wayne Bell
Keyword(s):  
Populus Tremuloides ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Forest Succession ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Abies Balsamea ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Northern Ontario ◽  
Phase Dynamics

Environmental concerns and economic pressures on forest ecosystems have led to the development of sustainable forest management practices. As a consequence, forest managers must evaluate the long-term effects of their management decisions on potential forest successional pathways. As changes in forest ecosystems occur very slowly, simulation models are logical and efficient tools to predict the patterns of forest growth and succession. However, as models are an imperfect representation of reality, it is desirable to evaluate them with historical long-term forest data. Using remeasured tree and stand data from three data sets from two ecoregions in northern Ontario, the succession gap model ZELIG-CFS was evaluated for mixed boreal forests composed of black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.), balsam fir (Abies balsamea [L.] Mill.), jack pine (Pinus banksiana L.), white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss), trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), white birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.), northern white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.), American larch (Larix laricina [Du Roi] K. Koch), and balsam poplar (Populus balsamefera L.). The comparison of observed and predicted basal areas and stand densities indicated that ZELIG-CFS predicted the dynamics of most species consistently for periods varying between 5 and 57 simulation years. The patterns of forest succession observed in this study support gap phase dynamics at the plot scale and shade-tolerance complementarity hypotheses at the regional scale.

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