Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (12) ◽  
pp. 3063-3074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce G Marcot ◽  
J Douglas Steventon ◽  
Glenn D Sutherland ◽  
Robert K McCann
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Belief Networks ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Belief Networks ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Expert Review ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Practical Guidelines ◽  
Level Model

Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) are useful tools for modeling ecological predictions and aiding resource-management decision-making. We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising BBNs. Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized "causal web" of key factors affecting a species or ecological outcome of interest; developing a first, alpha-level BBN model from the influence diagram; revising the model after expert review; testing and calibrating the model with case files to create a beta-level model; and updating the model structure and conditional probabilities with new validation data, creating the final-application gamma-level model. We illustrate and discuss these steps with an empirically based BBN model of factors influencing probability of capture of northern flying squirrels (Glaucomys sabrinus (Shaw)). Testing and updating BBNs, especially with peer review and calibration, are essential to ensure their credibility and reduce bias. Our guidelines provide modelers with insights that allow them to avoid potentially spurious or unreliable models.

scholarly journals MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING USING AUTOMATED SYSTEM OF OPTIMUM STRUCTURE CHOICE FOR GROUND-SURFACE PUBLIC CONVEYANCES

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 (3) ◽  
pp. 224-232
Author(s):  
Наталия Кузнецова ◽  
Nataliya Kuznetsova ◽  
Татьяна Карлова ◽  
Tatyana Karlova ◽  
Александр Бекмешов ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Surface ◽  
Automated System ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Optimum Structure ◽  
Database Queries ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Software Complex ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Motion Speed ◽  
Definition Of

The article is devoted to the application of a special software complex for the definition of an opti-mum set of means of urban public groundsurface conveyances. In the paper are presented the existing software solutions meant for the definition of an optimum route, their basic merits and demerits are revealed, the methods for the solution of a problem in search of an op-timum set of means of ground surface public conveyance taking into account a maximum amount of factors affecting a motion speed are offered. The authors have presented a structure of an automated system for a choice of an optimum structure in ground surface public conveyances and also there are shown fragments of a corresponding program code and database queries. In the paper particular attention is paid to the working modes of an appendix presented, in particular, for the situation in the absence of customer’s device connection to the basic computer system.

Bayesian Belief Networks in IT Investment Decision Making

2017 ◽  
pp. 75-107 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Bayesian Belief Networks ◽  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Belief Networks ◽  
It Investment ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Availability Modeling

This section aims at describing the concept of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN), building principles and application of BBN and influence diagrams, as well as the reasons why BBN are considered an adequate tool for IS availability modeling.

scholarly journals Factors Affecting Management Accounting Practices in Malaysia

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudhashini Nair ◽  
Yee Soon Nian
Keyword(s):  
Production Technology ◽  
Management Accounting ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Organization Size ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Advanced Production ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Affect Management

Management accounting is the process of preparing management reports and accounts that provide accurate and timely, financial and statistical information to assist in management decision making. It is also known as the process of identifying, measuring, accumulating, analyzing, preparing, interpreting and communicating information to help managers fulfill the organization’s objectives. Management accounting practices are used by organizational managers at various levels and at the same time, it gives managers the freedom of choice as there are no constraints, other than the cost of information collected relative to benefits of improved management decisions. Studies have found that there are factors that may affect management accounting practices. Literature has indicated that factors such as--organization size, intensity of market competition, level of qualification of accounting staff and advanced production technology--may affect management accounting practices. The objective of this research is to study the impact of these factors on management accounting practices in Malaysia. A total of 200 respondents from Klang Valley, Malaysia were involved in the survey using purposive sampling. The results of the study revealed that organization size and advanced production technology have significant relationships with management accounting practices.

scholarly journals CASH FLOW FORECASTING WITH RISK CONSIDERATION USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS (BBNS)

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 1045-1059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostafa KHANZADI ◽  
Ehsan ESHTEHARDIAN ◽  
Mahdiyar MOKHLESPOUR ESFAHANI
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Bayesian Belief Networks ◽  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Belief Networks ◽  
Cash Flow Management ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasting

Cash-flow management is very important for contractors given that inadequate cash resources typically are the main causes for bankruptcy of construction companies. In comparison to most other industries, the construction industry is severely plagued by risk, and the success of construction projects usually depends on valuating all risks. However, conventional methods suggested by extant research on cash flow forecasting do not consider comprehensive identifica­tion of risk factors, interactions between the factors, and simultaneous occurrences of the factors. This study introduced a simple and appropriate probabilistic cash flow forecasting model using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to avoid bankruptcy of contractors by considering influence diagrams and risk factors that affect a project. Workability and reli­ability of the proposed approach was tested on an important building construction project in Iran as a real case study, and the results indicated that the model performed well.

scholarly journals Priority selection of agro-meteorological parameters for integrated plant diseases management through analytical hierarchy process

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 649
Author(s):  
Rutuja Rajendra Patil ◽  
Sumit Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Disease Management ◽  
Plant Disease ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Plant Diseases ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Plant Disease Management

To understand the influence of agro-meteorological parameters to take decisions related to various factors in an integrated plant disease management, it becomes vital to carry out scientific studies on the factors affecting it. The different agro-meteorological parameters namely temperature, humidity, moisture, rain, phenological week, cropping season, soil type, location, precipitation, heat index, and cloud coverage have been considered for this study. Each parameter has been allocated the ranking by using a technique called analytical hierarchical process (AHP). The parameter priorities are determined by calculating the Eigenvalues. This helps to make decisions related to integrated plant disease management where the prediction of plant disease occurrence, yield prediction, irrigation requirements, and fertilization recommendations can be taken. To take these decisions which parameters are good indicators can be identified using this method. The parameters majorly contribute to plant diseases and pest management decision making while delivers minor contribution in irrigation and fertilizer management related decision making. The manual results are compared with software generated results which indicates that both the results correlate with each other. Therefore, AHP technique can be successfully implemented for prioritizing agro-meteorological parameters for integrated plant diseases management as the results for both levels are consistent (consistency ratio < 0.1).

A Critical Literature Analysis of the Relationships of Marketing and Strategic Planning Under Project Environments

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Brian J. Galli ◽  
Miriam F. Bongo ◽  
Kafferine D. Yamagishi ◽  
Lanndon A. Ocampo
Keyword(s):  
Project Management ◽  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Research Fields ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Operational Factors ◽  
Structured Literature Review ◽  
Critical Literature

This paper investigates marketing and strategic planning issues, its relationship to project management, and the factors affecting these relationships. The authors perform an unstructured and structured literature review, which identified 83 articles that explore the critical variables in this paper. Factors are often seen as operational factors that are directed towards personnel tasked with daily operations. Notably, project management, when tasked with marketing and strategic planning, is challenged to cope with evolving situational alterations that require a different set of skills. Particularly, they contribute to several bodies of knowledge, including project management, decision-making, strategic planning, marketing, and leadership. The study builds on these bodies of knowledge and also addresses gaps identified in these research fields. They contribute to research on factors through various avenues for future research.

Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (12) ◽  
pp. 3104-3116 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Brian Nyberg ◽  
Bruce G Marcot ◽  
Randy Sulyma
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Management ◽  
Bayesian Belief Networks ◽  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Belief Networks ◽  
Alternative Management ◽  
Time Dynamic ◽  
Decision Networks ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
Management Policies

Bayesian belief and decision networks are modelling techniques that are well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes, from illustrating a conceptual understanding of system relations to calculating joint probabilities for decision options and predicting outcomes of management policies. We describe the nature and capabilities of BBNs, discuss their applications to the adaptive-management process, and present a case example of adaptive management of forests and terrestrial lichens in north-central British Columbia. We recommend that those unfamiliar with BBNs should begin by first developing influence diagrams with relatively simple structures that represent the system under management. Such basic models can then be elaborated to include more variables, the mathematical relations among them, and features that allow assessment of the utility of alternative management actions or strategies. Users of BBNs should be aware of several important limitations, including problems in representing feedback and time–dynamic functions. Nevertheless, when properly used, Bayesian networks can benefit most adaptive-management teams by promoting a shared understanding of the system being managed and encouraging the rigorous examination of alternative management policies.

Development and Realization of Contaminated Sites Information and Remediation Decision System Based on GIS

2013 ◽  
Vol 726-731 ◽  
pp. 4660-4663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Na Zhang ◽  
Hui Liu ◽  
Lin Jiang ◽  
Xiao Ying Zhu ◽  
Dan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Contaminated Sites ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Site Management ◽  
Expert Review ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making System ◽  
Database Technology ◽  
Set Up

Based on the geographic information systems and database technology, this study set up a contaminated sites information and remediation management decision-making system using Beijing sites data, which include a web portal interface and three major modules: site management, risk assessment and remediation decision. People can inter the system to browse and inquiry the information concerned, zoom in and zoom out the map, statistics and analysis the data. This system provided tools for risk assessment, remediation decision and expert review. This system will provide technical support for government departments and technical institutions.

scholarly journals The relevance of development of critical initiatives in meat packing industry for the purpose of implementation of a new Food Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation

2020 ◽  
pp. 104-118
Author(s):  
Aleksandr Emel'yanovich Solomennikov
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
National Security ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Functional Dependencies ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Meat Packing ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Meat Packing Industry ◽  
Method Of Assessment

The goal of this article consists in carrying out comparative characteristics of the Russian Food Security Doctrines adopted in 2010 and 2020; specification of their role, purpose, relevance, and flaws in the national security development strategy, as well as setting priorities, tasks and objectives of the new Food Security Doctrine and its meaning for the development of Russian meat packing industry. The author reveals a multifactor (multicriteria) method of assessment of the development of food production markets for ensuring food security. Using such tools as the balance method, logical, comparative and economic-statistical analysis, the author examines uncertainty factor in the meat packing industry in management decision-making with regards to its sustainable development, as well as functional dependencies of factors affecting fluctuation in stability and planning of the situations that define importance of the development of meat packing companies. It is concluded that the objectives of national security of the country, described in the new Food Security Doctrine, require a comprehensive solution of multifactor and multilevel tasks, including the establishment of centralized management of administrative and financial resources as an integrated and effective tool for the development of meat packing industry, as well as creation of nationally-oriented centralized food industry with a unified operation office and human resource reserve.

scholarly journals Factors affecting the development and decision of flood reduction solution – case study in Can Tho city

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (X3) ◽  
pp. 55-64
Author(s):  
Tran Gia Pham
Keyword(s):  
Policy Development ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Policy Tool ◽  
Management Decision Making ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Can Tho City ◽  
Environmental Policy Analysis

To date, there have been many studies on flooding and flood reduction measures in Can Tho city being carried out by the national and international researchers. However, there are virtually no studies that address the factors affecting the development and decision on the flood reduction solutions. Management decision making is one of the important policy tool in environmental management. Therefore, this study was undertaken to produce the suggestions to enhance the effectiveness of development of flood reduction solution of organizations and functional agencies as well as to contribute more the understanding to research topic of environmental policy analysis in Vietnam. The method used in this study is a social survey with a sample size of 45 officials and experts working in the field of design of flood reduction measures in the functional Departments, People's Committees at all levels and related social organizations. The research findings show that the main factors affecting the development and decision of reduction solutions are professional knowledge and the context of policy development. To enhance the effectiveness of decision of flood reduction solutions, suggestions include capacity building, co-operation strengthening, improvement of data source and increase of capital for flood reduction activities.

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