Role of vegetation and weather on fire behavior in the Canadian mixedwood boreal forest using two fire behavior prediction systems

2001 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 430-441 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christelle Hély ◽  
Mike Flannigan ◽  
Yves Bergeron ◽  
Douglas McRae
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Behavior Prediction ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Mixedwood Boreal Forest

Spring and summer simulations were carried out using the Canadian Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) and U.S. BEHAVE systems to study the role of vegetation and weather on fire behavior in the mixedwood boreal forest. Stands at Lake Duparquet (Quebec, Canada) were characterized as being deciduous, mixed-deciduous, mixed-coniferous, or coniferous, according to their conifer basal area percentage. Sampled fuel loads (litter, duff, woody debris, herbs, and shrubs) and local weather conditions (three different fire-risk classes) were used as inputs in the simulation. The predicted fire behavior variables were rate of spread (ROS), head fire intensity (HFI), and area burned. Results from ANOVA testing showed that both weather and vegetation are not always significant, and the two prediction systems qualitatively attribute the explained variance to these factors differently. The FBP System selects the weather factor as the most important factor for all fire behavior variables, whereas BEHAVE selects the vegetation factor. However, three research burns located in Ontario revealed that BEHAVE was not well adapted to the mixedwood boreal region, whereas FBP predictions were quantitatively close to observed prescribed values. Extreme fire weather is confirmed as producing large and intense fires, but differences in fire behavior among stand types exist across the full range of fire weather. Implications of climate change, vegetation, and seasonal effects on fire behavior and the forest mosaic are discussed.

Modelling logic and the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System

1998 ◽  
Vol 74 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. E. Van Wagner
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Research ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Behavior Prediction ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Fire Modelling ◽  
Semi Empirical

This article outlines the flexible semi-empirical philosophy used throughout six decades of fire research by the Canadian Forest Service, culminating in the development of the Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System. It then describes the principles involved when spread rate and fuel consumption are estimated separately to yield fire intensity, and the anomaly that has resulted from the omission of a foliar-moisture effect on crown-fire spread. Judged on its results so far, this Canadian approach has held its own against any other, and holds full promise for the future as well. Key words: forest fire behavior, Canadian FBP System, fire modelling, crown-fire theory, fire research philosophy

Fire Regime and the Abundance of Red Pine

1993 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 241 ◽  
Author(s):  
MD Flannigan
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Red Pine ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Forward Stepwise

Red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) is a fire-dependent species. This study examines the relationship between the fire regime and the abundance of red pine. The fire regime is represented by components of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System and outputs from the Canadian Fire Behavior Prediction System as well as the average area burned and the percentage of conifers of each forest section. Extreme as well as averages values were used in this analysis as a large forest fire is a rare event that can occur on only a few days of the year under extreme fire weather conditions. Results from a forward-stepwise regression explained about 70% of die variance in red pine volume (abundance) data. Variables selected in the regression analysis included extreme headfire intensity, area burned and average drought code. These results suggest that abundance of red pine and other fire affected tree species is directly related to the aspects of the fire regime such as fire intensity.

Fire behavior in immature jack pine

1987 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
B.J. Stocks
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Jack Pine ◽  
Quantitative Prediction ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Forest Fire Management

A series of experimental fires, each 0.4 ha in size, was conducted between 1975 and 1981 in an unthinned stand of immature jack pine (1948 origin) in central Ontario to gather quantitative fire behavior data for forest fire management purposes. Twelve fires were conducted over a broad range of burning conditions. Fire behavior and impact characteristics (i.e., rate of spread, fuel consumption, and frontal fire intensity) were found to be strongly correlated with fire weather severity as expressed through various component codes and indices of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System. This type of experimental fire information, along with wildfire data, is being used in the development of guidelines for quantitative prediction of fire behavior in major Canadian forest fuel types.

scholarly journals Moisture Sorption Models for Fuel Beds of Standing Dead Grass in Alaska

Fire ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Miller
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Content ◽  
Equilibrium Moisture Content ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Moisture Sorption ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Diurnal Changes ◽  
Behavior Prediction ◽  
Standing Dead ◽  
Prediction Systems

Sorption models were developed to predict the moisture content in fuelbeds of standing dead grass from ambient weather measurements. Intuition suggests that the response time of standing dead grass to diurnal changes in weather is negligible and that moisture content tracks the equilibrium moisture content under most field conditions. This assumption suggests that moisture content could be modelled by empirically fitting coefficients to equations of equilibrium moisture content using field measurements. Here, six equations commonly used in wildland fire management and other industries were fit using 293 measurements of weather and moisture content in standing dead grass from Alaska, U.S.A. Predictors were air temperature and either relative humidity or dewpoint depression. Mean absolute errors of the best three models were approximately 1.16% of moisture content. The models predicted well the moisture content of an independently collected dataset from Canada but less so a set from Australia. The models may be used in wildland fire danger rating and fire behavior prediction systems.

Heat Content Variation of Sierra Nevada Conifers

1998 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
JW Van Wagdendonk ◽  
WM Sydoriak ◽  
JM Benedict
Keyword(s):  
Developmental Stage ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Behavior Prediction ◽  
Fuel Component ◽  
Standard Values ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Fine Fuels ◽  
In Fire

A study of fuels of Siena Nevada conifer species showed that percent ash content, heat content with ash, and heat content without ash of needle and duff fuels significantly varied by species, fuel component, and developmental stage of the overstory. Ash and heat contents of woody fuels varied by species and fuel component but not by developmental stage. Bark fuels significantly differed by species, while no factor significantly affected cone fuels. Regional variation in ash and heat content was evident but small. However, the values reported here for heat content with ash for fine fuels averaged 2.50 MJ kg-1 higher than the standard values used in fire behavior prediction systems. Using standard values can result in significant under predictions of fireline intensity of an average of 16 percent for all species of up to 47 percent for Pinus albicaulis.

Fire behavior in mature jack pine

1989 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 783-790 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. J. Stocks
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Jack Pine ◽  
Quantitative Prediction ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Forest Fire Management

Between 1973 and 1983 a series of 12 experimental fires, each 0.4 ha in size, was conducted in a mature jack pine (Pinusbanksiana Lamb.) stand (1899 origin) in north central Ontario. The fires were carried out under a broad range of burning conditions to gather quantitative fire behavior data for forest fire management purposes. Fire weather severity, as expressed through the component codes and indices of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System, was strongly correlated with fire behavior and impact characteristics (i.e., rate of spread, depth of burn, fuel consumption, and frontal fire intensity). Guidelines for the quantitative prediction of the fire behavior in major Canadian forest fuel types are currently being developed, primarily on the basis of this type of experimental fire data combined with information gathered on selected wildfires.

scholarly journals Fire Behavior Prediction in Larch Forests of the Kazakhstan Altai

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 578
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Volokitina ◽  
Andrey Kalachev ◽  
Mikhail Korets ◽  
Tatiana Sofronova
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Behavior Prediction ◽  
Larch Forests

This paper considers automated fire behavior prediction in larch forests of the Kazakhstan Altai based on large-scale vegetation fuel maps (VF maps). First-time pyrological description of the Kazakhstan Altai larch forests was performed, thus facilitating VF maps’ creation using forest inventory information in a geographical information system (GIS). Based on the methodological developments of the Sukachev Institute of Forest, types of primary fire carriers were identified for larch forests and other categories of sites. On the example of the Markakol Forestry area (Kazakhstan Altai), our fire growth simulation modeling system was adapted for predicting fire behavior in the mountain terrain. The developed fire simulation software helped not only identify inventory plots ready to burn, but also assess spread rate for fire parts dependent upon weather conditions, predict fire intensity and fire development, and calculate the required manpower and resources for fire suppression. The effects of each specific fire were predicted in terms of percentage of tree mortality dependent upon fire intensity, tree species, and average tree diameter. Examples of VF maps were made for different periods of a fire season and analysis was given to behavior of a simulated surface fire in the Markakol Forestry area.

The Seasonal End of Human Coronavirus Hospital Admissions with Implications for SARS-CoV-2 (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan T Evangelista
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Influenza Viruses ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
Human Coronavirus ◽  
Enveloped Virus ◽  
Multiplex Pcr Assay ◽  
Contact Transmission ◽  
Human Coronaviruses

UNSTRUCTURED The seasonality of influenza viruses and endemic human coronaviruses was tracked over an 8-year period to assess key epidemiologic reduction points in disease incidence for an urban area in the northeast United States. Patients admitted to a pediatric hospital with worsening respiratory symptoms were tested using a multiplex PCR assay from nasopharyngeal swabs. The additive seasonal effects of outdoor temperatures and indoor relative humidity (RH) were evaluated. The 8-year average peak activity of human coronaviruses occurred in the first week of January, when droplet and contact transmission was enabled by the low indoor RH of 20-30%. Previous studies have shown that an increase in RH to 50% has been associated with markedly reduced viability and transmission of influenza virus and animal coronaviruses. As disease incidence was reduced by 50% in early March, to 75% in early April, to greater than 99% at the end of April, a relationship was observed from colder temperatures in January with a low indoor RH to a gradual increase in outdoor temperatures in April with an indoor RH of 45-50%. As a lipid-bound, enveloped virus with similar size characteristics to endemic human coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 should be subject to the same dynamics of reduced viability and transmission with increased humidity. In addition to the major role of social distancing, the transition from lower to higher indoor RH with increasing outdoor temperatures could have an additive effect on the decrease in SARS-CoV-2 cases in May. Over the 8-year period of this study, human coronavirus activity was either zero or >99% reduction in the months of June through September, and the implication would be that SARS-Cov-2 may follow a similar pattern. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT RR2-doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.15.20103416

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document