An applied framework for uncertainty treatment and key challenges in hydrological and hydraulic modelingThis article is one of a selection of papers published in this Special Issue on Hydrotechnical Engineering

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (7) ◽  
pp. 941-954 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. de Rocquigny
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
Uncertainty Modeling ◽  
Hydraulic Modeling ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Inverse Approach ◽  
Best Value ◽  
Risk Criterion ◽  
Considerable Impact ◽  
Selection Of

Within the larger domain of risk or environmental assessment, uncertainty treatment is gaining growing interest in the fields of hydrological and hydraulic modeling. A generic approach to quantitative uncertainty is suggested, putting together the applicable decision-making framework and associated probabilistic formulations involving uncertainty modeling (possibly through an inverse approach), uncertainty propagation, and the ranking of importance or sensitivity analysis. Accordingly, a number of generic statistical, physical, and numerical methods could be more largely disseminated in the water domain. Two axes of particular potential interest are outlined: the tricky choice of differentiating according to the epistemological nature of the uncertainty, with considerable impact on the formulation of the risk criterion and the associated level of complexity; the challenges posed by uncertainty modeling in the context of data scarcity, and the corresponding calibration and inverse probabilistic techniques, bound to be developed to best value hydro-monitoring and data acquisition systems under uncertainty.

Uncertainty in 2-D hydraulic modeling: a case study of an experiment in transcritical flowThis article is one of a selection of papers published in this Special Issue on Hydrotechnical Engineering.

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (7) ◽  
pp. 1014-1023 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Lewicki ◽  
A. Paquier ◽  
K. El kadi Abderrezzak ◽  
N. Rivière
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Hydraulic Modeling ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Numerical Predictions ◽  
Space Step ◽  
Dam Break Flow ◽  
Flow Propagation ◽  
Averaged Model ◽  
Selection Of

Change in flow regime from subcritical to supercritical flow or opposite can be met during a dam break flow propagation but also during floods in urban areas, particularly near crossroads. Detailed laboratory measurements of flow discharge distribution and flow depths are carried out for transcritical dividing flows in a 90° sharp-edged, rectangular junction formed by horizontal open-channels of equal width. These measurements are used to assess the uncertainty of numerical predictions obtained using a two-dimensional (2-D) depth-averaged model. A sensitivity analysis to four parameters, i.e., space step, friction coefficient, diffusion coefficient, and downstream boundary condition, is carried out. For the water depths in the vicinity of the intersection, uncertainty linked to the calibration of the four aforementioned parameters can be higher than 50% because of the difficulty in representing the location and amplitude of the hydraulic jumps while, for the flow ratio between the downstream branches, uncertainty is limited to 10%.

scholarly journals Uncertainty modeling using 929 intuitionistic fuzzy numbers

2021 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 905-929
Author(s):  
Vladimir Milovanović ◽  
Aleksandar Aleksić ◽  
Vlada Sokolović ◽  
Marjan Milenkov
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
Uncertainty Modeling ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Electre Method ◽  
Modeling Data ◽  
Method Of Assessment ◽  
Selection Of

Introduction/purpose: The paper discusses the selection of the most optimal supplier using the example of an unmanned aircraft when the decision maker has data of a qualitative nature. Problems that arise in practice in the selection of suppliers relate to the selection of adequate criteria as well as the way they are evaluated by the decision maker. One of the ways of assessing the criteria of a qualitative character is the usage of linguistic expressions, which gives decision makers the freedom to express their position and opinion through descriptive assessments. This method of assessment is not the most accurate and can introduce a certain amount of uncertainty for the decision maker. Methods: To solve the problem of uncertainty, the paper proposes a method of modeling data using intuitive phase numbers. Intuitive phase numbers are suitable for solving the problem of uncertainty in situations when it is necessary to review safety during the assessment. To rank suppliers, the ELECTRE method is used, which is adapted to intuitive phase numbers (IF ELECTRE). The IF ELECTRE method was chosen because it clearly presents the potential of all suppliers, i.e. their advantages and disadvantages in relation to the required criteria. Results: Using IF ELECTRE, the final results provide a shape of mutual preference or indifference between suppliers. The ranking clearly shows the potential of all suppliers, which in a future procurement can serve as a reference for decision making. Conclusion: The contribution of this paper is reflected in the proposed model that can be used in practice to solve not only the problem of supplier selection, but also similar problems where the decision is made based on inaccurate data. Using these models seeks to reduce indecision and subjectivity in decision making.

scholarly journals A Case Study Analysis on the Impact of a Hybrid Application of the Best Value Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-61
Author(s):  
Lars Claassen ◽  
Arjan Roodhorst ◽  
Isaac Kashiwagi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Case Study Research ◽  
Case Study Analysis ◽  
Best Value ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Selection Of

The Best Value Approach (BVA) has been used as a method to procure and manage services. As the BVA is further proliferated, there are applications of the BVA which deviate from the standard approach which are labeled as hybrid processes. This research focuses on better understanding BVA hybrid projects and the implications that may arise with such deviations. Using case study research, the BVA was used to procure services for the construction of ships. The research findings show the impact of hybrid applications of the BVA including (1) the selection of suppliers based on decision making instead of expertise (2) attempts to share and transfer risk, (3) incomplete clarification phase planning by expert suppliers, and (4) incomplete use of the Weekly Risk Report and Director’s report to track project deviation. The resulting hybrid application was found to have increased costs, increased decision making, and created a non-transparent environment. Suggestions have been made to improve upon these areas by applying the BVA structure including a selection process to identify expertise and a project management process which utilizes the supplier’s expertise to create a structure of transparency through performance metrics.

Introduction: Affixes and bases

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-168
Author(s):  
Stela Manova
Keyword(s):  
Special Issue ◽  
Affix Order ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Affix Ordering

This special issue includes a selection of papers presented at the 2nd Vienna Workshop on Affix Order held in Vienna, Austria on June 4–5, 2009. The workshop was in honor of Wolfgang U. Dressler on the occasion of his 70th birthday. However, this special issue differs from the classical Festschrift dedicated to a renowned scholar and is ‘more special’ in two respects at least: 1) not all authors are Dressler's friends and colleagues, some of them are only indirectly related to him, through his students; and 2) since the papers were presented at a topic-oriented workshop, they are thematically uniform. In other words, this special issue is a kind of scientific genealogy in terms of affix ordering. Thus, the title Affixes and bases should be understood in two ways: literally – affixes and bases as linguistic notions, and metaphorically – affixes and bases as linguists related directly and indirectly to a prominent base: Wolfgang U. Dressler.

Selection of Contractor Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Tools

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 139-142
Author(s):  
S.PUSHPARANI S.PUSHPARANI ◽  
◽  
Dr.S.SENTHAMILKUMAR Dr.S.SENTHAMILKUMAR
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Selection Of

Sistem Pendukung Keputusan SNMPTN Jalur Undangan Dengan Metode Electre

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Lidia K Simanjuntak ◽  
Tessa Y M Sihite ◽  
Mesran Mesran ◽  
Nuning Kurniasih ◽  
Yuhandri Yuhandri
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Action Selection ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Prospective Students ◽  
College Entrance ◽  
Electre Method ◽  
Selection Of

All colleges each year organize the selection of new admissions. Acceptance of prospective students in universities as education providers is done by selecting prospective students based on achievement in school and college entrance selection. To select the best student candidates based on predetermined criteria, then use Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) or commonly called decision support system. One method in MCDM is the Elimination Et Choix Traduisant la Reality (ELECTRE). The ELECTRE method is the best method of action selection. The ELECTRE method to obtain the best alternative by eliminating alternative that do not fit the criteria and can be applied to the decision SNMPTN invitation path.

PEMILIHAN KEPLING TELADAN MENERAPKAN METODE RANK ORDER CENTROID (ROC) DAN METODE ADDITIVE RATIO ASSESSMENT (ARAS) DI KECAMATAN MEDAN AREA

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Liza Handayani ◽  
Muhammad Syahrizal ◽  
Kennedi Tampubolon
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Priority Level ◽  
The Village ◽  
Field Area ◽  
Selection Of

The head of the environment is an extension of the head of the village head in assisting or providing services to the community both in the administration of administration in the village and to other problems. It is natural for a kepling to be appreciated for their performance during their special tenure in the kecamatan field area. Previously, the selection of a dipling in a sub-district was very inefficient and seemed unfair for this exemplary selection to use a system to produce an accurate value, and no intentional element. To overcome the process of selecting an exemplary kepling that experiences these obstacles by using an application called a Decision Support System. Decision Support System (SPK) is a system that can solve a problem, and this system is also assisted with several methods, namely the Rank Order Centroid (ROC) method that can assign weight values to each of the criteria based on their priority level. And to do the ranking or determine an exemplary set using the Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) method, this method provides decision making that takes decisions based on ranking or the highest value.Keywords: Head of Medan Area Subdistrict, SPK, Centroid Rank Order, Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS).

SISTEM PENDUKUNG KEPUTUSAN PEMILIHAN GURU BERPRESTASI KOTA MEDAN MENERAPKAN METODE PREFERENCES SELECTION INDEX (STUDI KASUS : DINAS PENDIDIKAN KOTA MEDAN)

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fajar Syahputra ◽  
Mesran Mesran ◽  
Ikhwan Lubis ◽  
Agus Perdana Windarto
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
Formal Education ◽  
Basic Education ◽  
Selection Index ◽  
Main Task ◽  
Selection Of

The teacher is a major milestone in the world of education, the ability and achievement of students cannot be separated from the role of a teacher in teaching and guiding students. Based on the Law of the Republic of Indonesia No. 14 of 2005 concerning Teachers and Lecturers, in Article 1 explained that teachers are professional educators with the main task of educating, teaching, guiding, directing, training, evaluating, and evaluating students in early childhood education through formal education, basic education and education medium. Whereas in Article 4 of the Act, it is explained that the position of teachers as professionals serves to enhance the dignity and role of teachers as learning agents to function to improve the quality of national education.Decision making is an election process, among various alternatives that aim to meet one or several targets. The decision-making system has 4 phases, namely intelligence, design, choice and implementation. These phases are the basis for decision making, which ends with a recommendation.The Preferences Selection Index (PSI) method is a rarely used decision support system method. This method is a method developed by stevanie and Bhatt (2010) to solve the Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM). With the right consideration, this method can be one of the tools to determine policies in decision-making systems, especially the selection of outstanding teachers. Determination of policies taken as a basis for decision making, must use criteria that can be defined clearly and objectively.Keywords: Decision Support System, PSI, Selection of Achieving Teachers

Artikel Strategi tentang Pengambilan Keputusan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Winda Safitri Caniago ◽  
Hade Afriansyah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Optimization Model ◽  
Heuristic Model ◽  
Selection Of

Decision making is an action with determine the result in solving problem with choose a rule action between alternative through a mental of process, logic of process and etc. This purpose article is to help make it easier to solve a problem. This article explain some strategy decision making such as optimization model, satisfying model, mixed scanning model, heuristic model, and last the selection of certain model.

Pengembangan Aplikasi Pendukung Keputusan Pemilihan Program Studi dengan Metode Fuzzy Logic (Studi Kasus: Universitas Multimedia Nusantara)

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-18
Author(s):  
Joko Haryanto ◽  
Seng Hansun
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Support System ◽  
System Application ◽  
Prospective Students ◽  
Fuzzy Logic Method ◽  
Index Terms ◽  
Selection Of

This paper describes the development of decision support system application to assist students who want to enter college so that no one choose the majors incorrectly. This application uses fuzzy logic method because fuzzy logic is very flexible in data which are vague and can be represented as a linguistic variable. The purpose of this application is to assist students to choose available majors at University Multimedia Nusantara which are appropriate with his/her capabilities. This application accepts five kinds of input values i.e. Mathematics, Indonesian, English, Physics, and TIK. Received input will be processed by the calculation of the system for decision-making and the application will generate output that shows how great a match for each majors. With this application, prospective students can find out where the majors that match his/her capabilities. This application has ninety nine percentage of match result accuracy. Index Terms—fuzzy logic, decision support system, UMN, selection of major

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