Seismic hazard analysis: a comparative study

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 1156-1171 ◽  
Author(s):  
H P Hong ◽  
K Goda ◽  
A G Davenport
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Historical Seismicity ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Uniform Hazard Spectra ◽  
Attenuation Relations ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
Cell Method ◽  
Thiessen Polygon ◽  
The Impact

The quantitative seismic hazard maps for the 1970s National Building Code of Canada were evaluated using the Davenport–Milne method. The Cornell–McGuire method is employed to develop recent seismic hazard maps of Canada. These methods incorporate the information on seismicity, magnitude-recurrence relations, and ground motion (or response) attenuation relations. The former preserves and depends completely on details of the historical seismicity; the latter smoothes the irregular spatial occurrence pattern of the historical seismicity into seismic source zones. Further, the Epicentral Cell method, which attempts to incorporate the preserving and smoothing aspect of these methods, has been developed. However, the impact of the adopted assumptions on the estimated quantitative seismic hazard has not been investigated. This study provides a comparative seismic hazard assessment using the above-mentioned methods and simulation-based algorithms. The analysis results show that overall the Davenport–Milne method gives quasi-circular seismic hazard contours near significant historical events, and the Cornell–McGuire method smoothes the transition of contours. The Epicentral Cell method provides estimates approximately within the former and the latter. Key words: epicentral cell method, probability, seismic hazard, Thiessen polygon, Voronoi, uniform hazard spectra.

scholarly journals Seismic hazard assessment in Eastern and Southern Africa

1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Midzi ◽  
D. J. Hlatywayo ◽  
L. S. Chapola ◽  
F. Kebede ◽  
K. Atakan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Rift System ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Attenuation Relations ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
Eastern And Southern Africa

Seismic hazard assessment for the Eastern and Southern Africa region was done using the probabilistic approach. Seismic hazard maps for 10% exceedance in 50 years, 10% exceedance in 100 years, as well as for 50 and 100 years return periods were prepared using the FRISK88M software. The area involved covers a wide region bounded by latitudes 40°S-25°N and longitudes 10°E and 55°E. Input parameters for the computations were obtained using the recent earthquake catalogue compiled by Turyomurugyendo. The catalogue which covers the time period 627-1994, contains earthquakes within the area bounded by 40°S-25°N and 10°E-55°E, with homogeneous magnitudes (M S ). Since a Poisson model of earthquake occurrence is assumed, dependent events were cleaned from the catalogue. Attenuation relations for the Eastern and Southern Africa region based on the strong motion data are virtually non-existent. However, attempts have been made recently by Jonathan and Twesigomwe to establish an average attenuation relation for the region. These relations were used in the computations. Possible uncertainties in the attenuation relations were accounted for using the logic-tree formalism. The results are presented in seismic hazard maps in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for the mean and the 85th percentile. The distribution of PGA values indicate relatively high hazard along the East African rift system. In the northern segments of the rift system, they exceed 250 gals for 10% probability of exceedence in 50 years.

A simple algorithm for tracing synthetic isoseismals

1996 ◽  
Vol 86 (4) ◽  
pp. 1019-1027 ◽  
Author(s):  
Livio Sirovich
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Simple Algorithm ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Attenuation Relations ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
Earthquake Sources ◽  
Modeling Techniques ◽  
San Fernando ◽  
Synthetic Isoseismals

Abstract Probabilistic calculation of regional seismic hazard maps also requires the use of the so-called “attenuation relations,” which give the reference “shake-ability” at certain distances from the earthquake sources. This article achieves progress in this area. In fact, the present tests on a series of earthquakes in California (San Fernando, 1971; Whittier Narrows, 1987; Northridge, 1994) suggest that in some regions the areal shapes of the territories damaged by past earthquakes may be synthetically traced—sometimes amazingly well—with a simple algorithm that considers some gross features of the sources, and this is compatible with theory. It seems that this algorithm gives rather stable results. Moreover, when the detailed modeling techniques available nowadays are inapplicable due to lack of data, or for purpose of saving time and money, it might be useable for improving seismic hazard calculations and, conversely, for retrieving information about sources of earthquakes from the preinstrumental era.

scholarly journals Development of seismic hazard maps for the proposed 2005 edition of the National Building Code of Canada

2003 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 255-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Adams ◽  
Gail Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Engineering ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Building Code ◽  
National Committee ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Uniform Hazard Spectra ◽  
Earthquake Probability ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
Strong Ground

A new seismic hazard model, the fourth national model for Canada, has been devised by the Geological Survey of Canada to update Canada's current (1985) seismic hazard maps. The model incorporates new knowledge from recent earthquakes (both Canadian and foreign), new strong ground motion relations to describe how shaking varies with magnitude and distance, the newly recognized hazard from Cascadia subduction earthquakes, and a more systematic approach to reference site conditions. Other new innovations are hazard computation at the 2% in 50 year probability level, the use of the median ground motions, the presentation of results as uniform hazard spectra, and the explicit incorporation of uncertainty via a logic-tree approach. These new results provide a more reliable basis for characterizing seismic hazard across Canada and have been approved by the Canadian National Committee on Earthquake Engineering (CANCEE) as the basis of the seismic loads in the proposed 2005 edition of the National Building Code of Canada.Key words: seismic hazard, earthquake, probability, uniform hazard spectrum, maps, Cascadia subduction, strong ground motions, uncertainty, CANCEE, National Building Code of Canada.

Seismic Hazard Assessment for Japan: Reconsiderations After the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 848-860 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroyuki Fujiwara ◽  
◽  
Nobuyuki Morikawa ◽  
Toshihiko Okumura ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
2011 Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps

Under the guidance of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion of Japan, we have been carrying out seismic hazard assessment for Japan since the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake and have made the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan to estimate strong motion caused by earthquakes that could occur in Japan in the future, and show estimated results on these maps. The Hazard Maps consist of two kinds of maps. One kind is a probabilistic seismic hazard map that shows the relation between seismic intensity value and its probability of exceedance within a certain period. The other kind is a scenario earthquake shaking map. In order to promote the use of the National Seismic Hazard Maps, we have developed an open Web system to provide information interactively, and have named this system the Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station (J-SHIS). The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0) was the largest such event in the recorded history of Japan. This megathrust earthquake was not considered in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan. Based on lessons learned from this earthquake disaster and on experience we have had in the seismic hazardmapping project of Japan, we consider problems and issues to be resolved for seismic hazard assessment and make proposals to improve seismic hazard assessment for Japan.

Comparing Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps with ShakeMap Footprints for Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (2A) ◽  
pp. 847-858
Author(s):  
Adrien Pothon ◽  
Philippe Gueguen ◽  
Sylvain Buisine ◽  
Pierre-Yves Bard
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
The Past

Abstract A number of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) maps have been released for Indonesia over the past few decades. This study proposes a method for testing PSHA maps using U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap catalog considered as historical seismicity for Indonesia. It consists in counting the number of sites on rock soil for which the independent maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the ShakeMap footprints between May 1968 and May 2018 exceeds the thresholds from the PSHA map studied and in comparing this number with the probability of exceedance given in the PSHA map. Although ShakeMap footprints are not as accurate and complete as continuous recorded ground motion, the spatially distributed ShakeMap covers 7,642,261 grid points, with a resolution of 1  km2, compensating the lack of instrumental data over this period. This data set is large enough for the statistical analysis of independent PGA values on rock sites only. To obtain the subdata set, we develop a new selection process and a new comparison method, considering the uncertainty of ShakeMap estimates. The method is applied to three PSHA maps (Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program [GSHAP], Global Assessment Report [GAR], and Standar Nasional Indonesia [SNI2017]) for a selection of sites first located in Indonesia and next only in the western part of the country. The results show that SNI2017 provides the best fit with seismicity over the past 50 yr for both sets of rock sites (whole country and western part only). At the opposite, the GAR and GSHAP seismic hazard maps only fit the seismicity observed for the set of rock sites in western Indonesia. This result indicates that this method can only conclude on the spatial scale of the analysis and cannot be extrapolated to any other spatial resolution.

Development of the 2017 national seismic hazard maps of Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 112-136
Author(s):  
Masyhur Irsyam ◽  
Phil R Cummins ◽  
M Asrurifak ◽  
Lutfi Faizal ◽  
Danny Hilman Natawidjaja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
National Standards ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps

Indonesia is one of the most seismically active countries in the world, and its large, vulnerable population makes reliable seismic hazard assessment an urgent priority. In 2016, the Indonesian Ministry of Public Works and Housing established a team of earthquake scientists and engineers tasked with improving the input data available for revising the national seismic hazard map. They compiled results of recent active fault studies using geological, geophysical, and geodetic observations, as well as a new comprehensive earthquake catalog including hypocenters relocated in a three-dimensional velocity model. Seismic hazard analysis was undertaken using recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), and logic trees for the inclusion of epistemic uncertainty associated with different choices for GMPEs and earthquake recurrence models. The new seismic hazard maps establish the importance of active faults and intraslab seismicity, as well as the subduction megathrust, in determining the level of seismic hazard, especially in onshore, populated areas. The new Indonesian hazard maps will be used to update national standards for design of earthquake-resilient buildings and infrastructure.

Seismic hazard and risks for social and infrastructure exposures adjacent to the Baikal–Amur Mainline

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Kossobokov ◽  
Anastasia Nekrasova
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Historical Evidence ◽  
Basic Part ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps

<p>Seismic hazard assessment requires an adequate understanding the earthquake distribution in magnitude, space, and time ranges. Laking data for a period of several thousand years makes probabilistic approach to estimating the recurrence time of hazardous ground shaking unreliable and misleading. In spite of theoretical flaws and actual failures on practice, the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) maps keep being actively used both at global and national scales. In recent decades, alternative methodologies have been developed to improve the reliability and accuracy of reproducible seismic hazard maps that pass intensive testing by historical evidence and realistic modelling of scenario earthquakes. In particular, the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA) confirms providing reliable and effective input for mitigating object-oriented earthquake risks. The unified scaling law for earthquakes (USLE) is a basic part of NDSHA that generalizes application of the Gutenberg-Richter law (G-RL). The USLE states that the logarithm of expected annual number of earthquakes of magnitude M in an area of linear size L within the magnitude range [M– , M+] follows the relationship log N(M, L) = A + B×(5 − M) + C×log L, where A, B, and C are constants.  Naturally, A and B are analogous to the classical a- and b-values, while C compliments to G-RL with the estimate of local fractal dimension of earthquake epicentres allowing for realistic rescaling seismic hazard to the size of exposure at risk. USLE implies that the maximum magnitude MX expected with p% chance in T years can be obtained from N(MX, L) = p%, then used for estimating and mapping ground shaking parameters by means of the NDSHA algorithms. So far, the reliable USLE based seismic hazard maps tested by historical evidence have been plotted for a number of regions worldwide. We present the USLE based maps of MX computed at earthquake-prone cells of a regular grid, as well as the adapted NDSHA estimates of seismic hazard and risks for social and infrastructure exposures in the regions adjacent to the Russian Federation Baikal–Amur Mainline. The study supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 20-17-00180.</p>

scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Hanoi city

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 321-338
Author(s):  
Pham The Truyen ◽  
Nguyen Hong Phuong
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
S Period

In this study, the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment proposed by Cornell and Esteva in 1968 was applied for Hanoi city, using an earthquake catalog updated until 2018 and a comprehensive seismotectonic model of the territory of Vietnam and adjacent sea areas. Statistical methods were applied for declustering the earthquake catalog, then the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the parameters of the Gutenberg–Richter Law and the maximum magnitude for each seismic source zone. Two GMPEs proposed by Campbell & Bozorgnia (2008) and Akkar et al., (2014) were selected for use in hazard analysis. Results of PSHA for Hanoi city are presented in the form of probabilistic seismic hazard maps, depicting peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) as well as 5-hertz (0.2 sec period) and 1-hertz (1.0 sec. period) spectral accelerations (SA) with 5-percent damping on a uniform firm rock site condition, with 10%, 5%, 2% and 0,5% probability of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to return times of 475; 975; 2,475 and 9,975 years, respectively. The results of PSHA show that, for the whole territory of Hanoi city, for all four return periods, the predicted PGA values correspond to the intensity of VII to IX degrees according to the MSK-64 scale. As for the SA maps, for all four return periods, the predicted SA values at 1.0 s period correspond to the intensity of VI to VII, while the predicted SA values at 0.2 s period correspond to the intensity of VIII to X according to the MSK-64 scale. This is the last updated version of the probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Hanoi city. The 2019 probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Hanoi city display earthquake ground motions for various probability levels and can be applied in seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and other public policy.

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