An Assessment of the Impact of the 2003 EPRI Ground-Motion Prediction Models on the USGS National Seismic-Hazard Maps

2006 ◽  
Vol 96 (3) ◽  
pp. 1159-1169 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Cramer
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals What is the impact of the August 24, 2016 Amatrice earthquake on the seismic hazard assessment in central Italy?

2016 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maura Murru ◽  
Matteo Taroni ◽  
Aybige Akinci ◽  
Giuseppe Falcone
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction Equations ◽  
Prediction Equations ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction ◽  
The Impact

<p>The recent Amatrice strong event (M<sub>w</sub>6.0) occurred on August 24, 2016 in Central Apennines (Italy) in a seismic gap zone, motivated us to study and provide better understanding of the seismic hazard assessment in the macro area defined as “Central Italy”. The area affected by the sequence is placed between the M<sub>w</sub>6.0 1997 Colfiorito sequence to the north (Umbria-Marche region) the Campotosto area hit by the 2009 L’Aquila sequence M<sub>w</sub>6.3 (Abruzzo region) to the south. The Amatrice earthquake occurred while there was an ongoing effort to update the 2004 seismic hazard map (MPS04) for the Italian territory, requested in 2015 by the Italian Civil Protection Agency to the Center for Seismic Hazard (CPS) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia INGV. Therefore, in this study we brought to our attention new earthquake source data and recently developed ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Our aim was to validate whether the seismic hazard assessment in this area has changed with respect to 2004, year in which the MPS04 map was released. In order to understand the impact of the recent earthquakes on the seismic hazard assessment in central Italy we compared the annual seismic rates calculated using a smoothed seismicity approach over two different periods; the Parametric Catalog of the Historical Italian earthquakes (CPTI15) from 1871 to 2003 and the historical and instrumental catalogs from 1871 up to 31 August 2016. Results are presented also in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), using the recent ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) at Amatrice, interested by the 2016 sequence.</p>

Ground-motion prediction models evoked by seismicity in the Upper Silesia Coal Basin, Poland, the review with case studies

2020 ◽  
Vol 224 (2) ◽  
pp. 1381-1403
Author(s):  
Maciej J Mendecki ◽  
Judyta Odrobińska ◽  
Renata Patyńśka ◽  
Adam F Idziak
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction ◽  
Coal Basin ◽  
Upper Silesia ◽  
Regression Parameters ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARY This paper presents the results of new research on ground-motion relations from three areas in the Upper Silesia Coal Basin (USCB) in Poland and compares them with of ground-motion relations. These three mining areas of the USCB were investigated in order to better predict ground motion caused by seismic events. The study focused on variations in regression parameters and predicted PGA (peak ground acceleration) for different areas to better understand the influence of geology. To compare our results to previous models we had to unify the known ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE). Then, we used various regression models to predict the corresponding PGA values of a relatively strong USCB seismic event with an energy level of 108 J (ML = 3.3) and compared their results. The regression model parameters were compared to each other, particularly those related to energy and distance, which corresponds to a geometrical scattering (attenuation) of seismic waves as well as the influence of wave type (body or surface). Finally, building upon several established regression models, our analysis showed a strong linear correlation between two regression parameters corresponding to energy and distance. However, an open question remains whether this relation can be explained by physics, or, from a mathematical point of view, it is the effect of linear dependence of matrix vectors logE and logR. A comparison of different GMPEs allows for better verification of knowledge about the impact of tremors on ground motion in the USCB.

On the Forecasting of Ground-Motion Parameters for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danny Arroyo ◽  
Mario Ordaz
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction ◽  
Data Set

It is well understood that the range of application for an empirical ground-motion prediction model is constrained by the range of predictor variables covered in the data used in the analysis. However, in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), the limits in the application of ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) are often ignored, and the empirical relationships are extrapolated. In this paper, we show that this extrapolation leads to a quantifiable increment in the uncertainty of a GMPM when it is used to forecast a future value of a given intensity parameter. This increment, which is clearly of epistemic nature, depends on the adopted functional form, on the covariance matrix of the regression coefficients, on the used regression technique, and on the quality of the data set. In addition, through some examples using the database of the Next Generation of Ground-Motion Attenuation Models project and some currently favored functional forms we study the increment in the seismic hazard produced by the extrapolation of GMPMs.

scholarly journals Site Specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Model for Isfahan, Iran: Estimates and Uncertainties

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Kohrangi ◽  
Homayon Safaei ◽  
Laurentiu Danciu ◽  
Hossein Tajmir-Riahi ◽  
Rassoul Ajalloeian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Site Specific

Abstract We present a seismic source characterization model for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) of the Isfahan urban area, Iran. We compiled the required datasets including the earthquake catalogue and the geological and seismotectonic structure and faults systems within the study region to delineate and characterize seismic source models. We identified seven relatively large zones that bound each region with similar seismotectonic characteristics and catalogue completeness periods. These regions were used for calculating the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude recurrence relationship and for estimating the maximum magnitude value within each region. The recurrence parameters were then used to build a spatially varying distributed seismic source model using a smoothed kernel. Additionally, based on a fault database developed in this study and on a local expert’s opinion about their slip velocity, an active faults based model is also created. We further performed sets of sensitivity analyses to find stable estimates of the ground motion intensity and to define alternative branches for both the seismogenic source and ground motion prediction models. Site amplification is considered based on a Vs30 map for Isfahan compiled within this study. The alternative source and ground motion prediction models considered in the logic tree of this study are then implemented in the software Open Quake to generate hazard maps and uniform hazard spectra for return periods of interest. Finally, we provide a detailed comparison of the PSHA outcomes of the current study both with those presented in the 2014 Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME14) and with the national seismic design spectrum to further discuss the discrepancies between hazard estimates from site-specific and regional PSHA studies.

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