Mapping environmental conditions in the St. Lawrence River onto ice parameters using artificial neural networks to predict ice jams
This paper evaluates the potential of using artificial neural networks to model ice parameters related to ice jams in the St. Lawrence River navigation channel through Lake St. Pierre. The artificial neural networks mapped environmental conditions onto ice parameters through multilayer feed-forward networks. The ice parameters include velocity, thickness, concentration, and unit discharge. The input to the network is based on two meteorological parameters: wind velocity and air temperature. The LevenbergMarquardt algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to train the feed-forward network. The artificial neural networks adequately modelled the ice parameters. The predicted ice velocity, thickness, and unit discharge were very satisfactory, but ice concentration was not. Methods to improve forecasting (particularly of ice concentration) are suggested.Key words: ice parameters, ice jam, artificial neural network, ADCP, IPS.