Statistical Determination of Data Requirements for Assessment of Lake Restoration Programs
To test the effectiveness of lake restoration programs, monitoring must be carried out both before and after any change is made. Statistical techniques are presented for calculation of these sampling requirements both for individual lakes and for groups of lakes analyzed collectively. Illustration of these techniques is made using data on productivity of New York State's Finger Lakes before and after the state ban on phosphate detergents. Existing pre-ban data on mean summer phytoplankton standing crop are shown to be insufficient for conclusive evidence of a post-ban productivity change in individual lakes no matter how many years of post-ban data could be obtained. When the lakes are analyzed as a group rather than individually, however, the conclusion is reached that there is a probability of only 0.7% that a chlorophyll drop at least as large as the one observed would have occurred without the effect of the phosphate detergent ban. Use of power calculations before sampling is begun will help to maximize the efficiency of data collection efforts in lake restoration programs.Key words: lake sampling design, statistical analysis, summer chlorophyll, data requirements, lake restoration, eutrophication