scholarly journals Pervasive ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 368 (6496) ◽  
pp. 1239-1242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Smith ◽  
Helen A. Fricker ◽  
Alex S. Gardner ◽  
Brooke Medley ◽  
Johan Nilsson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Response ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Mass Change ◽  
Laser Altimetry ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Ice Cloud

Quantifying changes in Earth’s ice sheets and identifying the climate drivers are central to improving sea level projections. We provide unified estimates of grounded and floating ice mass change from 2003 to 2019 using NASA’s Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and ICESat-2 satellite laser altimetry. Our data reveal patterns likely linked to competing climate processes: Ice loss from coastal Greenland (increased surface melt), Antarctic ice shelves (increased ocean melting), and Greenland and Antarctic outlet glaciers (dynamic response to ocean melting) was partially compensated by mass gains over ice sheet interiors (increased snow accumulation). Losses outpaced gains, with grounded-ice loss from Greenland (200 billion tonnes per year) and Antarctica (118 billion tonnes per year) contributing 14 millimeters to sea level. Mass lost from West Antarctica’s ice shelves accounted for more than 30% of that region’s total.

scholarly journals Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 5705-5715
Author(s):  
Andy Aschwanden ◽  
Timothy C. Bartholomaus ◽  
Douglas J. Brinkerhoff ◽  
Martin Truffer
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Mass Change ◽  
Recent Effort ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Formal Process ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Accurately projecting mass loss from ice sheets is of critical societal importance. However, despite recent improvements in ice sheet models, our analysis of a recent effort to project ice sheet contribution to future sea level suggests that few models reproduce historical mass loss accurately and that they appear much too confident in the spread of predicted outcomes. The inability of models to reproduce historical observations raises concerns about the models' skill at projecting mass loss. Here we suggest that uncertainties in the future sea level contribution from Greenland and Antarctica may well be significantly higher than reported in that study. We propose a roadmap to enable a more realistic accounting of uncertainties associated with such forecasts and a formal process by which observations of mass change should be used to refine projections of mass change. Finally, we note that tremendous government investment and planning affecting tens to hundreds of millions of people is founded on the work of just a few tens of scientists. To achieve the goal of credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level, we strongly believe that investment in research must be commensurate with the scale of the challenge.

scholarly journals Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea-level

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andy Aschwanden ◽  
Timothy C. Bartholomaus ◽  
Douglas J. Brinkerhoff ◽  
Martin Truffer
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Mass Change ◽  
Recent Effort ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Formal Process ◽  
The Future ◽  
Volunteer Effort

Abstract. Accurately projecting mass loss from ice sheets is of critical societal importance. However, despite recent improvements in ice sheet models, our analysis of a recent effort to project Greenland's contribution to future sea-level suggests that few models reproduce historical mass loss accurately, and that they appear much too confident in the spread of predicted outcomes. The inability of models to reproduce historical observations raises concerns about the models' skill at projecting mass loss. Here we suggest that the future sea level contribution from Greenland may well be significantly higher than reported in that study. We propose a roadmap to enable a more realistic accounting of uncertainties associated with such forecasts, and a formal process by which observations of mass change be used to refine projections of mass change. Finally, we note that tremendous government investment and planning affecting 10s to 100s of millions of people is founded on the work of several tens of scientists involved in a significantly volunteer effort. To achieve the goal of credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea-level, we strongly believe that investment in research must be commensurate with the scale of the challenge.

scholarly journals Dynamic influence of pinning points on marine ice-sheet stability: a numerical study in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 2623-2635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lionel Favier ◽  
Frank Pattyn ◽  
Sophie Berger ◽  
Reinhard Drews
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Dronning Maud Land

Abstract. The East Antarctic ice sheet is likely more stable than its West Antarctic counterpart because its bed is largely lying above sea level. However, the ice sheet in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, contains marine sectors that are in contact with the ocean through overdeepened marine basins interspersed by grounded ice promontories and ice rises, pinning and stabilising the ice shelves. In this paper, we use the ice-sheet model BISICLES to investigate the effect of sub-ice-shelf melting, using a series of scenarios compliant with current values, on the ice-dynamic stability of the outlet glaciers between the Lazarev and Roi Baudouin ice shelves over the next millennium. Overall, the sub-ice-shelf melting substantially impacts the sea-level contribution. Locally, we predict a short-term rapid grounding-line retreat of the overdeepened outlet glacier Hansenbreen, which further induces the transition of the bordering ice promontories into ice rises. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrated that the onset of the marine ice-sheet retreat and subsequent promontory transition into ice rise is controlled by small pinning points, mostly uncharted in pan-Antarctic datasets. Pinning points have a twofold impact on marine ice sheets. They decrease the ice discharge by buttressing effect, and they play a crucial role in initialising marine ice sheets through data assimilation, leading to errors in ice-shelf rheology when omitted. Our results show that unpinning increases the sea-level rise by 10 %, while omitting the same pinning point in data assimilation decreases it by 10 %, but the more striking effect is in the promontory transition time, advanced by two centuries for unpinning and delayed by almost half a millennium when the pinning point is missing in data assimilation. Pinning points exert a subtle influence on ice dynamics at the kilometre scale, which calls for a better knowledge of the Antarctic margins.

scholarly journals The Dynamics of Marine Ice Sheets

1979 ◽  
Vol 24 (90) ◽  
pp. 167-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert H. Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The North ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Ice Sheet Dynamics

AbstractMarine ice sheets rest on land that, for the most part, is below sea-level. Ice that flows across the grounding line, where the ice sheet becomes afloat, either calves into icebergs or forms a floating ice shelf joined to the ice sheet. At the grounding line there is a transition from ice-sheet dynamics to ice-shelf dynamics, and the creep-thinning rate in this region is very sensitive to sea depth; rising sea-level causes increased thinning-rates and grounding-line retreat, falling sea-level has the reverse effect. If the bedrock slopes down towards the centre of the ice sheet there may be only two stable modes: a freely-floating ice shelf or a marine ice sheet that extends to the edge of the continental shelf. Once started, collapse of such an ice sheet to form an ice shelf may take place extremely rapidly. Ice shelves which form in embayments of a marine ice sheet, or which are partially grounded, have a stabilizing influence since ice flowing across the grounding line has to push the ice shelf past its sides. Retreat of the grounding line tends to enlarge the ice shelf, which ultimately may become large enough to prevent excessive outflow from the ice sheet so that a new equilibrium grounding line is established; removal of the ice shelf would allow retreat to continue. During the late-Wisconsin glacial maximum there may have been marine ice sheets in the northern hemisphere but the only current example is the West Antarctic ice sheet. This is buttressed by the Ross and Ronne Ice Shelves, and if climatic warming were to prohibit the existence of these ice shelves then the ice sheet would collapse. Field observations suggest that, at present, the ice sheet may be advancing into parts of the Ross Ice Shelf. Such advance, however, would not ensure the security of the ice sheet since ice streams that drain to the north appear to flow directly into the sea with little or no ice shelf to buttress them. If these ice streams do not flow over a sufficiently high bedrock sill then they provide the most likely avenues for ice-sheet retreat.

scholarly journals The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea-level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronja Reese ◽  
Anders Levermann ◽  
Torsten Albrecht ◽  
Hélène Seroussi ◽  
Ricarda Winkelmann
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Median Response ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams is the major reason for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica and is expected to become more important in the future. Here we show that for projections of future mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it is essential (1) to better constrain the sensitivity of sub-shelf melt rates to ocean warming, and (2) to include the historic trajectory of the ice sheet. In particular, we find that while the ice-sheet response in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model is comparable to the median response of models in three Antarctic Ice Sheet Intercomparison projects – initMIP, LARMIP-2 and ISMIP6 – conducted with a range of ice-sheet models, the projected 21st century sea-level contribution differs significantly depending on these two factors. For the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, this leads to projected ice loss ranging from 1.4 to 4.3 cm of sea-level equivalent in the ISMIP6 simulations where the sub-shelf melt sensitivity is comparably low, opposed to a likely range of 9.2 to 35.9 cm using the exact same initial setup, but emulated from the LARMIP-2 experiments with a higher melt sensitivity based on oceanographic studies. Furthermore, using two initial states, one with and one without a previous historic simulation from 1850 to 2014, we show that while differences between the ice-sheet configurations in 2015 are marginal, the historic simulation increases the susceptibility of the ice sheet to ocean warming, thereby increasing mass loss from 2015 to 2100 by about 50%. Our results emphasize that the uncertainty that arises from the forcing is of the same order of magnitude as the ice-dynamic response for future sea-level projections.</p>

scholarly journals The Dynamics of Marine Ice Sheets

1979 ◽  
Vol 24 (90) ◽  
pp. 167-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert H. Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The North ◽  
West Antarctic ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Ice Sheet Dynamics

AbstractMarine ice sheets rest on land that, for the most part, is below sea-level. Ice that flows across the grounding line, where the ice sheet becomes afloat, either calves into icebergs or forms a floating ice shelf joined to the ice sheet. At the grounding line there is a transition from ice-sheet dynamics to ice-shelf dynamics, and the creep-thinning rate in this region is very sensitive to sea depth; rising sea-level causes increased thinning-rates and grounding-line retreat, falling sea-level has the reverse effect. If the bedrock slopes down towards the centre of the ice sheet there may be only two stable modes: a freely-floating ice shelf or a marine ice sheet that extends to the edge of the continental shelf. Once started, collapse of such an ice sheet to form an ice shelf may take place extremely rapidly. Ice shelves which form in embayments of a marine ice sheet, or which are partially grounded, have a stabilizing influence since ice flowing across the grounding line has to push the ice shelf past its sides. Retreat of the grounding line tends to enlarge the ice shelf, which ultimately may become large enough to prevent excessive outflow from the ice sheet so that a new equilibrium grounding line is established; removal of the ice shelf would allow retreat to continue. During the late-Wisconsin glacial maximum there may have been marine ice sheets in the northern hemisphere but the only current example is the West Antarctic ice sheet. This is buttressed by the Ross and Ronne Ice Shelves, and if climatic warming were to prohibit the existence of these ice shelves then the ice sheet would collapse. Field observations suggest that, at present, the ice sheet may be advancing into parts of the Ross Ice Shelf. Such advance, however, would not ensure the security of the ice sheet since ice streams that drain to the north appear to flow directly into the sea with little or no ice shelf to buttress them. If these ice streams do not flow over a sufficiently high bedrock sill then they provide the most likely avenues for ice-sheet retreat.

scholarly journals Modelling the Antarctic and Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet changes with global climate through the Glacial cycle

1998 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 153-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. F. Budd ◽  
B. Coutts ◽  
Roland C. Warner
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Past History ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Antarctic Region ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The Antarctic

The future behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet depends to some extent on its current state of balance and its past history. The past history is primarily influenced by global climate changes, with some small amount of local feedback, and by sea-level changes generated primarily by the Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet changes, again with a small amount of feedback from the Antarctic ice sheet. An ice-sheet model which includes ice shelves has been used to model the Antarctic region and the whole Northern Hemisphere high-latitude region through the last ice-age cycle. For the climate forcing, the results from the global energy-balance model of Budd and Rayner (1990) are used. These are based on the Earth's orbital radiation changes with ice-sheet albedo feedback. Additional sensitivity studies are carried out for the amplitudes of the derived temperature changes and for changes in precipitation over the ice-sheets. For the Antarctic snow-accumulation changes, the results from the Voslok ice core are used with proportional changes over the rest of the ice sheet. For the sea-level variations, the results generated by the Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet changes provide the primary forcing, but account is also taken of the feedback effects from bed response under changing ice and ocean loading and from the Antarctic changes. The results of the modelling provide a wide range of features for comparison with observations, such as the margins of maximum ice extent. For the Northern Hemisphere the results indicate that the peak mean temperature shift required for the ice-edge region is about -12°C, whereas outside the ice-sheet region this change is smaller but over the ice sheets it is larger. For the Antarctic region during the ice age the interior region decreases in thickness, due to lower accumulation, while the grounding-edge region expands and thickens due to the sea-level lowering. As a result, the derived present state of balance shows a positive region over most of inland East Antarctica, whereas coastal regions tend to be nearer to balance, with some slightly negative regions around some of the large ice shelves and coastal ice streams which are still adjusting slowly to the post-ice-age changes of sea level and accumulation rates.

scholarly journals Impact of ice-shelf basal melting on inland ice-sheet thickness: a model study

2012 ◽  
Vol 53 (60) ◽  
pp. 129-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jürgen Determann ◽  
Malte Thoma ◽  
Klaus Grosfeld ◽  
Sylvia Massmann
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Sheet Thickness ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Basal Melting ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIce flow from the ice sheets to the ocean contains the maximum potential contributing to future eustatic sea-level rise. In Antarctica most mass fluxes occur via the extended ice-shelf regions covering more than half the Antarctic coastline. The most extended ice shelves are the Filchner–Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves, which contribute ~30% to the total mass loss caused by basal melting. Basal melt rates here show small to moderate average amplitudes of <0.5ma–1. By comparison, the smaller but most vulnerable ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellinghausen Seas show much higher melt rates (up to 30 ma–1), but overall basal mass loss is comparably small due to the small size of the ice shelves. The pivotal question for both characteristic ice-shelf regions, however, is the impact of ocean melting, and, coevally, change in ice-shelf thickness, on the flow dynamics of the hinterland ice masses. In theory, ice-shelf back-pressure acts to stabilize the ice sheet, and thus the ice volume stored above sea level. We use the three-dimensional (3-D) thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY to investigate the ice flow in a regularly shaped model domain, including ice-sheet, ice-shelf and open-ocean regions. By using melting scenarios for perturbation studies, we find a hysteresis-like behaviour. The experiments show that the system regains its initial state when perturbations are switched off. Average basal melt rates of up to 2 ma–1 as well as spatially variable melting calculated by our 3-D ocean model ROMBAX act as basal boundary conditions in time-dependent model studies. Changes in ice volume and grounding-line position are monitored after 1000 years of modelling and reveal mass losses of up to 40 Gt a–1.

Thermodynamics of the interaction between ice shelves and the sea

Polar Record ◽  
1976 ◽  
Vol 18 (112) ◽  
pp. 37-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. S. M. Doake
Keyword(s):  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Ross Ice Shelf ◽  
Surface Snow ◽  
Seaward Edge ◽  
The Antarctic

An ice shelf is a floating ice sheet, attached to land where ice is grounded along the coastline. Nourished both by surface snow accumulation and by glaciers and ice sheets flowing off the land, ice shelves can reach a considerable thickness, varying from up to 1 300 m when the ice starts to float to 200 m or less at the seaward edge (known as the ice front). Nearly all the world's ice shelves are found in Antarctica, where they cover an area of about one and a half million square kilometres. The two largest are the Ross Ice Shelf and the Filchner-Ronne ice shelf, each with an area of about half a million square kilometres. Smaller ice shelves fringe other parts of the Antarctic coastline.

scholarly journals The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea-level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronja Reese ◽  
Anders Levermann ◽  
Torsten Albrecht ◽  
Hélène Seroussi ◽  
Ricarda Winkelmann
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Median Response ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent acceleration of the inland ice streams is the major reason for currently observed mass loss from Antarctica and is expected to become more important in the future. Here we show that for projections of future mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it is essential (1) to better constrain the sensitivity of sub-shelf melt rates to ocean warming, and (2) to include the historic trajectory of the ice sheet. In particular, we find that while the ice-sheet response in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model is comparable to the median response of models in three Antarctic Ice Sheet Intercomparison projects – initMIP, LARMIP-2 and ISMIP6 – conducted with a range of ice-sheet models, the projected 21st century sea-level contribution differs significantly depending on these two factors. For the highest emission scenario RCP8.5, this leads to projected ice loss ranging from 1.4 to 4.0 cm of sea-level equivalent in the ISMIP6 simulations where the sub-shelf melt sensitivity is comparably low, opposed to a likely range of 9.2 to 35.9 cm using the exact same initial setup, but emulated from the LARMIP-2 experiments with a higher melt sensitivity based on oceanographic studies. Furthermore, using two initial states, one with and one without a previous historic simulation from 1850 to 2014, we show that while differences between the ice-sheet configurations in 2015 are marginal, the historic simulation increases the susceptibility of the ice sheet to ocean warming, thereby increasing mass loss from 2015 to 2100 by about 50 %. Our results emphasize that the uncertainty that arises from the forcing is of the same order of magnitude as the ice-dynamic response for future sea-level projections.

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