scholarly journals Impact of ice-shelf basal melting on inland ice-sheet thickness: a model study

2012 ◽  
Vol 53 (60) ◽  
pp. 129-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jürgen Determann ◽  
Malte Thoma ◽  
Klaus Grosfeld ◽  
Sylvia Massmann
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Sheet Thickness ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Basal Melting ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIce flow from the ice sheets to the ocean contains the maximum potential contributing to future eustatic sea-level rise. In Antarctica most mass fluxes occur via the extended ice-shelf regions covering more than half the Antarctic coastline. The most extended ice shelves are the Filchner–Ronne and Ross Ice Shelves, which contribute ~30% to the total mass loss caused by basal melting. Basal melt rates here show small to moderate average amplitudes of <0.5ma–1. By comparison, the smaller but most vulnerable ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellinghausen Seas show much higher melt rates (up to 30 ma–1), but overall basal mass loss is comparably small due to the small size of the ice shelves. The pivotal question for both characteristic ice-shelf regions, however, is the impact of ocean melting, and, coevally, change in ice-shelf thickness, on the flow dynamics of the hinterland ice masses. In theory, ice-shelf back-pressure acts to stabilize the ice sheet, and thus the ice volume stored above sea level. We use the three-dimensional (3-D) thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY to investigate the ice flow in a regularly shaped model domain, including ice-sheet, ice-shelf and open-ocean regions. By using melting scenarios for perturbation studies, we find a hysteresis-like behaviour. The experiments show that the system regains its initial state when perturbations are switched off. Average basal melt rates of up to 2 ma–1 as well as spatially variable melting calculated by our 3-D ocean model ROMBAX act as basal boundary conditions in time-dependent model studies. Changes in ice volume and grounding-line position are monitored after 1000 years of modelling and reveal mass losses of up to 40 Gt a–1.

scholarly journals Modelling the long-term response of the Antarctic ice sheet to global warming

1998 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 161-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roland C. Warner ◽  
W.Κ. Budd
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Mass Loss ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Basal Melting ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Term Response

The primary effects of global warming on the Antarctic ice sheet can involve increases in surface melt for limited areas at lower elevations, increases in net accumulation, and increased basal melting under floating ice. For moderate global wanning, resulting in ocean temperature increases of a few °C, the large- increase in basal melting can become the dominant factor in the long-term response of the ice sheet. The results from ice-sheet modelling show that the increased basal melt rates lead to a reduction of the ice shelves, increased strain rates and flow at the grounding lines, then thinning and floating of the marine ice sheets, with consequential further basal melting. The mass loss from basal melting is counteracted to some extent by the increased accumulation, but in the long term the area of ice cover decreases, particularly in West Antarctica, and the mass loss can dominate. The ice-sheet ice-shelf model of Budd and others (1994) with 20 km resolution has been modified and used to carry out a number of sensitivity studies of the long-term response of the ice sheet to prescribed amounts of global warming. The changes in the ice sheet are computed out to near-equilibrium, but most of the changes take place with in the first lew thousand years. For a global mean temperature increase of 3°C with an ice-shelf basal melt rate of 5 m a−1 the ice shelves disappear with in the first few hundred years, and the marine-based parts of the ice sheet thin and retreat. By 2000 years the West Antarctic region is reduced to a number of small, isolated ice caps based on the bedrock regions which are near or above sea level. This allows the warmer surface ocean water to circulate through the archipelago in summer, causing a large change to the local climate of the region.

scholarly journals Viscous and elastic buoyancy stresses as drivers of ice-shelf calving

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (258) ◽  
pp. 643-657 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cyrille Mosbeux ◽  
Till J. W. Wagner ◽  
Maya K. Becker ◽  
Helen A. Fricker
Keyword(s):  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Elastic Model ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Bending Stresses ◽  
Iceberg Calving ◽  
Basal Melting ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Maximum Stresses

AbstractThe Antarctic Ice Sheet loses mass via its ice shelves predominantly through two processes: basal melting and iceberg calving. Iceberg calving is episodic and infrequent, and not well parameterized in ice-sheet models. Here, we investigate the impact of hydrostatic forces on calving. We develop two-dimensional elastic and viscous numerical frameworks to model the ‘footloose’ calving mechanism. This mechanism is triggered by submerged ice protrusions at the ice front, which induce unbalanced buoyancy forces that can lead to fracturing. We compare the results to identify the different roles that viscous and elastic deformations play in setting the rate and magnitude of calving events. Our results show that, although the bending stresses in both frameworks share some characteristics, their differences have important implications for modeling the calving process. In particular, the elastic model predicts that maximum stresses arise farther from the ice front than in the viscous model, leading to larger calving events. We also find that the elastic model would likely lead to more frequent events than the viscous one. Our work provides a theoretical framework for the development of a better understanding of the physical processes that govern glacier and ice-shelf calving cycles.

scholarly journals Modelled response of the volume and thickness of the Antarctic ice sheet to the advance of the grounded area

2010 ◽  
Vol 51 (55) ◽  
pp. 41-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fuyuki Saito ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Volume Change ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
The Antarctic

AbstractNumerical experiments are performed for the Antarctic ice sheet to study the sensitivity of the ice volume to variations in the area of grounded ice and to changes in the climate during the most recent deglaciation. The effect of the variations in the grounded area is found to be the major source of changes in the ice volume, while the effect of climate change was minor. The maximum possible contribution of the ice-volume change to sea-level rise during the deglaciation is estimated to be 36 m, which covers most values estimated in previous studies. The effect of the advance of the ice-sheet margin over those regions not connected to the major ice shelves contributes one-third of the total ice-volume change, which is comparable to the effect of the grounding of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf and the contribution of the Ross and Amery Ice Shelves together.

scholarly journals ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 3033-3070 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hélène Seroussi ◽  
Sophie Nowicki ◽  
Antony J. Payne ◽  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
William H. Lipscomb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

scholarly journals The Antarctic contribution to 21st century sea-level rise predicted by the UK Earth System Model with an interactive ice sheet

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antony Siahaan ◽  
Robin Smith ◽  
Paul Holland ◽  
Adrian Jenkins ◽  
Jonathan M. Gregory ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
System Model ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Basal Melting ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet will play a crucial role in the evolution of global mean sea-level as the climate warms. An interactively coupled climate and ice sheet model is needed to understand the impacts of ice—climate feedbacks during this evolution. Here we use a two-way coupling between the U.K. Earth System Model and the BISICLES dynamic ice sheet model to investigate Antarctic ice—climate interactions under two climate change scenarios. We perform ensembles of SSP1-1.9 and SSP5-8.5 scenario simulations to 2100, which we believe are the first such simulations with a climate model with two-way coupling between both atmosphere and ocean models to dynamic models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In SSP1-1.9 simulations, ice shelf basal melting and grounded ice mass loss are generally lower than present rates during the entire simulation period. In contrast, the responses to SSP5-8.5 forcing are strong. By the end of 21st century, these simulations feature order-of-magnitude increases in basal melting of the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves, caused by intrusions of warm ocean water masses. Due to the slow response of ice sheet drawdown, this strong melting does not cause a substantial increase in ice discharge during the simulations. The surface mass balance in SSP5-8.5 simulations shows a pattern of strong decrease on ice shelves, caused by increased melting, and strong increase on grounded ice, caused by increased snowfall. Despite strong surface and basal melting of the ice shelves, increased snowfall dominates the mass budget of the grounded ice, leading to an ensemble-mean Antarctic contribution to global mean sea level of a fall of 22 mm by 2100 in the SSP5-8.5 scenario. We hypothesise that this signal would revert to sea-level rise on longer timescales, caused by the ice sheet dynamic response to ice shelf thinning. These results demonstrate the need for fully coupled ice—climate models in reducing the substantial uncertainty in sea-level rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Antarctic ice sheet response to upper-bound scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sainan Sun ◽  
Frank Pattyn
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Upper Bound ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Basal Sliding ◽  
The Antarctic

&lt;p&gt;Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet contributes the largest uncertainty of future sea-level rise projections. Ice-sheet model predictions are limited by uncertainties in climate forcing and poor understanding of processes such as ice viscosity. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) has investigated the 'end-member' scenario, i.e., a total and sustained removal of buttressing from all Antarctic ice shelves, which can be regarded as the upper-bound physical possible, but implausible contribution of sea-level rise due to ice-shelf loss. In this study, we add successive layers of &amp;#8216;realism&amp;#8217; to the ABUMIP scenario by considering sustained regional ice-shelf collapse and by introducing ice-shelf regrowth after collapse with the inclusion of ice-sheet and ice-shelf damage (Sun et al., 2017). Ice shelf regrowth has the ability to stabilize grounding lines, while ice shelf damage may reinforce ice loss. In combination with uncertainties from basal sliding and ice rheology, a more realistic physical upperbound to ice loss is sought. Results are compared in the light of other proposed mechanisms, such as MICI due to ice cliff collapse.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Melting and freezing under Antarctic ice shelves from a combination of ice-sheet modelling and observations

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (240) ◽  
pp. 731-744 ◽  
Author(s):  
JORGE BERNALES ◽  
IRINA ROGOZHINA ◽  
MAIK THOMAS
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Basal Melting ◽  
The Antarctic

ABSTRACTIce-shelf basal melting is the largest contributor to the negative mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. However, current implementations of ice/ocean interactions in ice-sheet models disagree with the distribution of sub-shelf melt and freezing rates revealed by recent observational studies. Here we present a novel combination of a continental-scale ice flow model and a calibration technique to derive the spatial distribution of basal melting and freezing rates for the whole Antarctic ice-shelf system. The modelled ice-sheet equilibrium state is evaluated against topographic and velocity observations. Our high-resolution (10-km spacing) simulation predicts an equilibrium ice-shelf basal mass balance of −1648.7 Gt a−1 that increases to −1917.0 Gt a−1 when the observed ice-shelf thinning rates are taken into account. Our estimates reproduce the complexity of the basal mass balance of Antarctic ice shelves, providing a reference for parameterisations of sub-shelf ocean/ice interactions in continental ice-sheet models. We perform a sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of variations in the model set-up, showing that the retrieved estimates of basal melting and freezing rates are largely insensitive to changes in the internal model parameters, but respond strongly to a reduction of model resolution and the uncertainty in the input datasets.

scholarly journals Significant submarine ice loss from the Getz Ice Shelf, Antarctica

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Rippin
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Direct Measurements ◽  
Radio Echo Sounding ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We present the first direct measurements of changes taking place at the base of the Getz Ice Shelf (GzIS) in West Antarctica. Our analysis is based on repeated airborne radio-echo sounding (RES) survey lines gathered in 2010 and 2014. We reveal that while there is significant variability in ice shelf behaviour, the vast majority of the ice shelf (where data is available) is undergoing basal thinning at a mean rate of nearly 13 m a−1, which is several times greater than recent modelling estimates. In regions of faster flowing ice close to where ice streams and outlet glaciers join the ice shelf, significantly greater rates of mass loss occurred. Since thinning is more pronounced close to faster-flowing ice, we propose that dynamic thinning processes may also contribute to mass loss here. Intricate sub-ice circulation patterns exist beneath the GzIS because of its complex sub-ice topography and the fact that it is fed by numerous ice streams and outlet glaciers. It is this complexity which we suggest is also responsible for the spatially variable patterns of ice-shelf change that we observe. The large changes observed here are also important when considering the likelihood and timing of any potential future collapse of the ice shelf, and the impact this would have on the flow rates of feeder ice streams and glaciers, that transmit ice from inland Antarctica to the coast. We propose that as the ice shelf continues to thin in response to warming ocean waters and climate, the response of the ice shelf will be spatially diverse. Given that these measurements represent changes that are significantly greater than modelling outputs, it is also clear that we still do not fully understand how ice shelves respond to warming ocean waters. As a result, ongoing direct measurements of ice shelf change are vital for understanding the future response of ice shelves under a warming climate.

scholarly journals An improved bathymetry compilation for the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica, to inform ice-sheet and ocean models

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 2079-2101 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. G. C. Graham ◽  
F. O. Nitsche ◽  
R. D. Larter
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Sea Floor ◽  
Bellingshausen Sea ◽  
Warm Deep Water ◽  
Basal Melting

Abstract. The southern Bellingshausen Sea (SBS) is a rapidly-changing part of West Antarctica, where oceanic and atmospheric warming has led to the recent basal melting and break-up of the Wilkins ice shelf, the dynamic thinning of fringing glaciers, and sea-ice reduction. Accurate sea-floor morphology is vital for understanding the continued effects of each process upon changes within Antarctica's ice sheets. Here we present a new bathymetric grid for the SBS compiled from shipborne echo-sounder, spot-sounding and sub-ice measurements. The 1-km grid is the most detailed compilation for the SBS to-date, revealing large cross-shelf troughs, shallow banks, and deep inner-shelf basins that continue inland of coastal ice shelves. The troughs now serve as pathways which allow warm deep water to access the ice fronts in the SBS. Our dataset highlights areas still lacking bathymetric constraint, as well as regions for further investigation, including the likely routes of palaeo-ice streams. The new compilation is a major improvement upon previous grids and will be a key dataset for incorporating into simulations of ocean circulation, ice-sheet change and history. It will also serve forecasts of ice stability and future sea-level contributions from ice loss in West Antarctica, required for the next IPCC assessment report in 2013.

Constraining ice shelf basalt melting rates from isochrone data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vjeran Visnjevic ◽  
Reinhard Drews ◽  
Clemens Schannwell ◽  
Inka Koch
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Inverse Approach ◽  
History Of ◽  
Forward And Inverse Modeling ◽  
Basal Melting

&lt;p&gt;Ice shelves buttress ice flow from the continent towards the ocean, and their disintegration results in increased ice discharge.&amp;#160; Ice-shelf evolution and integrity is influenced by surface accumulation, basal melting, and ice dynamics. We find signals of all of these processes imprinted in the ice-shelf stratigraphy that can be mapped using isochrones imaged with radar.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Our aim is to develop an inverse approach to infer ice shelf basal melt rates using radar isochrones as observational constraints. Here, we investigate the influence of basalt melt rates on the shape of isochrones using combined insights from both forward and inverse modeling. We use the 3D full Stokes model Elmer/Ice in our forward simulations, aiming to reproduce isochrone patterns observed in our data. Moreover we develop an inverse approach based on the shallow shelf approximating, aiming to constrain basal melt rates using isochronal radar data and surface velocities. Insights obtained from our simulations can also guide the collection of new radar data (e.g., profile lines along vs. across-flow) in a way that ambiguities in interpreting the ice-shelf stratigraphy can be minimized. Eventually, combining these approaches will enable us to better constrain the magnitude and history of basal melting, which will give valuable input for ocean circulation and sea level rise projections.&lt;/p&gt;

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