Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century

Science ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 330 (6010) ◽  
pp. 1496-1501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrique M. Pereira ◽  
Paul W. Leadley ◽  
Vânia Proença ◽  
Rob Alkemade ◽  
Jörn P. W. Scharlemann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Coming Of Age ◽  
Species Abundance ◽  
Marine Biodiversity ◽  
Global Biodiversity ◽  
Distribution Shifts ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

scholarly journals Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 351-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mansur Ali Jisan ◽  
Shaowu Bao ◽  
Leonard J. Pietrafesa
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present-day inundation scenario, the tracks of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, a probable range of future change in the inundated area was calculated by taking into consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing. The model outputs showed that the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % larger than the present-day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred during the mid-21st-century climate scenario. Similarly to that, an increasing trend was found for the end-21st-century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 m, the inundated area would become 53 % larger than the present-day case. Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 14 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr at Barisal station if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred in the mid-21st century. Similarly to that, an increase of 29 % was found at storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 m in this location for the end-21st-century climate scenario. Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 m in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500 and 3750 km2, whereas for present-day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000–1250 km2. These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the projected changes in SLR will generate more severe threats in terms of surge height and the extent of the inundated area.

scholarly journals Ensemble Projection of the Sea Level Rise Impact on Storm Surge and Inundation in the Coastal Bangladesh

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mansur Ali Jisan ◽  
Shaowu Bao ◽  
Leonard J. Pietrafesa
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Coastal Bangladesh ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of Sea Level Rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present day inundation scenario, track of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, that’s why a probable range of future change in inundated area was calculated by taking in to consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing. The model outputs showed that, the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % higher than the present day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 meter occurs during the mid-21st century climate scenario. Similar to that, an increasing trend was found for the end of the 21st century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 meter, the inundated area would become 53 % higher than the present day case. Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for the changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 21 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr in Barisal station if a Sea Level Rise of 0.26 meter occurs at the middle of the 21st century. Similar to that, an increase of 37 % was found in storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 meter in this location for the end of the 21st century climate scenario. Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 meters in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500–3750 km2 whereas for present day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000–1250 km2. These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the projected changes in SLR will generate more severe threats in terms of surge height and extent of inundated area.

The impact of climate change on swell events significant wave heights from multiple origins

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gil Lemos ◽  
Alvaro Semedo ◽  
Mark Hemer ◽  
Melisa Menendez ◽  
Pedro Miranda
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Wave Generation ◽  
Wave Direction ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Global Dynamic ◽  
Multiple Origins ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

<p>Swell waves dominate the ocean surface, propagating across ocean basins, with minor attenuation. Here, a state-of-the-art swell tracking algorithm is applied to a global dynamic ensemble of CMIP5 wave climate simulations, isolating swell events from the remaining local sea state conditions based on the behavior of the peak wave period (Tp) and peak mean wave direction (MWDp). The swell events related significant wave height (Hs) projected changes for the late 21st century, as well as the overall contribution of swells from different origins to the total Hs projections, are then characterized. The propagation of the projected changes, from the overlaying winds (U10) at the wave generation areas, to the swell arrival locations, through swell waves, is also analyzed and quantified. Results indicate that the arriving swells’ Hs projected changes, along the tropical and subtropical latitudes, are highly dependent on the direction of the incoming waves, being mostly compatible with the Hs and U10 projections at the respective wave generation areas, especially when statistical significance is accounted for. Clear implications on sediment transport, coastal accretion and erosion, and offshore infrastructures and navigation arise from the disproportionate flux of energy carried by swell waves in each direction, increasing the need for adequate measures to mitigate its effects, towards the end of the 21st century.</p>

Coming-of-Age Cinema in New Zealand

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alistair Fox
Keyword(s):  
Coming Of Age ◽  
Belief Systems ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Art Cinema ◽  
Literary Sources ◽  
French New Wave ◽  
Significant Phenomenon ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Zealanders

This book investigates the coming-of-age genre as a significant phenomenon in New Zealand’s national cinema, tracing its development from the 1970s to the present day. A preliminary chapter identifies the characteristics of the coming-of-age film as a genre, tracing its evolution and the influence of the French New Wave and European Art Cinema, and speculating on the role of the genre in the output of national cinemas. Through case studies of fifteen significant films, including The God Boy, Sleeping Dogs, The Scarecrow, Vigil, Mauri, An Angel at My Table, Heavenly Creatures, Once Were Warriors, Rain, Whale Rider, In My Father’s Den, 50 Ways of Saying Fabulous, Boy, Mahana, and Hunt for the Wilderpeople, subsequent chapters examine thematic preoccupations of filmmakers such as the impact of repressive belief systems and social codes, the experience of cultural dislocation, the expression of a Māori perspective through an indigenous “Fourth Cinema,” bicultural relationships, and issues of sexual identity, arguing that these films provide a unique insight into the cultural formation of New Zealanders. Given that the majority of films are adaptations of literary sources, the book also explores the dialogue each film conducts with the nation’s literature, showing how the time frame of each film is updated in a way that allows these films to be considered as a register of important cultural shifts that have occurred as New Zealanders have sought to discover their emerging national identity.

Assessment of sensitivity of the efficiency of regional tax spending towards investment attractiveness of the types of economic activity carried out by the residents of advanced development territory

2020 ◽  
pp. 98-110
Author(s):  
Evgeniya Mikhailovna Popova ◽  
Guzel Mukhtarovna Guseinova ◽  
Sergei Borisovich Milov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Investment Process ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Advanced Development

The deficit of subnational budgets and deceleration capital investments in multiple Russian regions increase the relevance of research aimed at improvement of tax incentivizing practice of the regional investment process. The studies focused on determination of the impact of socioeconomic and institutional factors upon the efficiency of investment tax expenses obtained wide circulation within the foreign scientific literature. The subject of this article is the assessment of sensitivity of the efficiency of regional tax expanses towards investment attractiveness of the types of economic activity carried out by the residents of territories of advanced socioeconomic development, created in the subjects of Far Easter Federal District. The scientific novelty and practical values of this research consists in substantiation of the reasonableness of assessment of investment attractiveness of the types of economic activity that are stimulated by tax incentives. Methodology for assessing investment attractiveness is proposed and tested. The conclusion is made that in case of low investment attractiveness of the type of economic activity, which was planned to support by tax incentives, it is required to conduct and additional analysis to avoid unjustified tax expanses.

Assessment of the influence of the spatial environment on the socio-economic development of the municipality

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 148-155
Author(s):  
K. N. Yusupov ◽  
V. M. Timiryanova, ◽  
Iu. S. Toktamysheva ◽  
A. F. Zimin,
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
The State ◽  
Municipal District ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Spatial Environment ◽  
The Impact

The article presents a methodology for assessing the impact of spatial environment on the socioeconomic development of municipalities. It relies on existing tools for assessing the state and potential of the geographical location of municipalities. An integrated approach allows to determine the potential of the interaction of the municipality with the neighbors of the first and second order. The methodology was tested on statistical data on the Blagovarsky municipal district.

Projected changes in extreme precipitation over eastern Asia in the 21st century

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (8) ◽  
pp. 3701-3713
Author(s):  
Chenghai Wang ◽  
Danyang Cui ◽  
Jerasorn Santisirisomboon
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Eastern Asia ◽  
Projected Changes

scholarly journals Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century

PLoS Biology ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. e1001682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilo Mora ◽  
Chih-Lin Wei ◽  
Audrey Rollo ◽  
Teresa Amaro ◽  
Amy R. Baco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Human Vulnerability ◽  
Ocean Biogeochemistry ◽  
Projected Changes

scholarly journals The Role of Selected Ecosystem Services in Different Farming Systems in Poland Regarding the Differentiation of Agricultural Land Structure

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6673
Author(s):  
Lidia Luty ◽  
Kamila Musiał ◽  
Monika Zioło
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Soil Formation ◽  
Farming Systems ◽  
Agricultural System ◽  
Organic System ◽  
Supporting Soil ◽  
Management Method ◽  
The Impact

The functioning of various agroecosystems is nowadays shaped by different farming systems, which may impair their functions, as well as being beneficial to them. The benefits include ecosystem services, defined as economic and noneconomic values gained by humans from ecosystems, through supporting soil formation and nutrient circulation, and the impact of agriculture on climate and biodiversity. Their mutual flow and various disturbances depend on the agroecosystem’s management method, which is associated with the type of management of agricultural land (AL) in individual farms. This paper raises a problem of transformation in the structure of three main farming systems in Poland, in 2004–2018, in relation to the implementation of 16 selected ecosystem services and their scale. Special attention was given to organic farming, as the most environmentally friendly and sustainable. The analysis demonstrates the increase in ALs in that type of production during the analyzed period of time. Disparities of transformation associated with the type of agricultural system were noticeable at the regional level, which were presented in 16 Polish voivodeships. The results of the analysis confirm that the organic system, which is an important carrier of various ecosystem services, gained a stable position. Moreover, areas with integrated farming still do not exceed 0.5% of total agricultural lands in such voivodeships. The analysis of factors influencing the deterioration or disappearance of selected environmental services characterizing agricultural systems indicates the need to depart from an intensive conventional management system.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document