Guidelines for Quantitative Risk Model Development

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Smitha D. Koduru ◽  
Jason B. Skow
Keyword(s):  
Critical Review ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Hazardous Materials ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Department Of Transportation ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
The U.S

A critical review of quantitative risk analysis (QRA) models used in the pipeline industry was conducted as part of a project titled “Critical Review of Candidate Pipeline Risk Models”, which was carried out for the U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). Guidelines for the development and application of pipeline QRA models were developed as a part of this project, following an extensive literature review and an industry survey. The guidelines provide a framework for performing QRA for natural gas and hazardous liquids transmission pipelines, and address risk estimation, which involves estimating the failure frequency and failure consequences. They are intended to assist operators in developing new QRA models, and in identifying and addressing gaps in their existing models. They are also intended to help regulators evaluate the accuracy, completeness, and effectiveness of the QRA models developed by operators.

Composite Sleeve Repair in the North American Regulatory Environment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier Ortiz ◽  
Dan Jungwirth ◽  
Yashar Behnamian ◽  
Hossein Jiryaei Sharahi
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Stress ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Hazardous Materials ◽  
Regulatory Environment ◽  
Department Of Transportation ◽  
Regulatory Requirements ◽  
The North ◽  
Industry Standards ◽  
American Society ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Composite sleeve repairs have been used in the pipeline industry for the last 25+ years. Fiberglass sleeves (e.g., Clock Spring®) were initially introduced in the market and are still being used as a proven pipeline repair method. For the last 15+ years, new composite materials have been introduced in the industry to provide a wider variety of repair options depending on the type of imperfections being repaired. Regulations in the U.S.A. and Canada share some requirements regarding design, installation, testing, and assessment of composite sleeve repairs. The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) through the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) recommends the use of repair methods consistent with industry standards. The 2019 version of the Canadian CSA Z662 Oil and Gas Pipeline Standard includes requirements for testing and qualification according to the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) regulation PCC-2 or ISO/TS 24817, and requirements for conducting an engineering assessment to determine the subsequent maximum stress on the pipe sleeve. This paper compares the regulatory requirements for pipeline composite sleeve repairs in the U.S.A. and Canada; it describes some of the options for composite sleeve repair, and reviews engineering assessments of methodologies for composite sleeve repair.

The promises and challenges of using gene mutations for patient stratification in follicular lymphoma

Blood ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 130 (13) ◽  
pp. 1491-1498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Weigert ◽  
David M. Weinstock
Keyword(s):  
Follicular Lymphoma ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Gene Mutations ◽  
Predictive Biomarkers ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Patient Stratification ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract Follicular lymphoma (FL) is a clinically and molecularly highly heterogeneous disease. Most patients achieve long-lasting remissions and have excellent overall survival (OS) with current treatment. However, ∼20% of patients have early progression of disease and short OS. At present, therapies are not guided by individual risk or disease biology. Reliable tools for patient stratification are urgently needed to avoid overtreatment of low-risk patients and to prioritize alternative approaches in high-risk patients. A rapidly expanding repertoire of promising therapeutic options is available for clinical evaluation; however, the numbers of patients with FL and the resources to conduct adequately powered trials are limited. Recent studies have shown that gene mutations can serve as prognostic and/or predictive biomarkers, in particular when integrated into composite risk models. Before translating these findings into routine clinical practice, however, several challenges loom. We review aspects of “clinicogenetic” risk model development and validation that apply to FL and more generally to other cancers. Finally, we propose a crowdsourcing effort that could expedite the development, validation, refinement, and selection of risk models. A new era of collaboration and harmonization is required if we hope to transition from empiric selection of therapeutics to risk-based, biology-guided treatment of patients with FL.

Comparing Strategy Risk Models on the Taiwanese Stock Market

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Model ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Active Management ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Information Coefficient ◽  
Fundamental Law ◽  
Risk Estimator ◽  
Over Time

Since the first appearance of the fundamental law of active management, researchers have proposed several directions for its improvement. One important area is in active risk. As the authors explain, instead of using unconditional active risk as a risk estimator, a new source of active risk, strategy risk, has been added to risk models. This is of interest in models for strategy risk estimation and their application in specific conditions of emerging markets. The authors test three models proposed by Qian and Hua, Ye, and Ding and Martin and prove the theoretical consistency of Ding and Martin’s model, as it involves errors from cross-sectional forecasting. For the case of Taiwan, strategy risk presents an important share of all active risk. Here, the team proves that the main source of strategy risk remains the volatility of the information coefficient over time and note that errors from the cross-sectional forecasting model must be addressed in managers’ risk model.

Revision of Industrial Effluent Regulations in Israel

1993 ◽  
Vol 27 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 71-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Weber ◽  
G. Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Clean Water Act ◽  
Industrial Effluent ◽  
Hazardous Materials ◽  
Clean Water ◽  
Legal Situation ◽  
Per Se ◽  
The U.S

Industrial effluent regulations in Israel can be promulgated pursuant to four statutory sources. No clear boundaries delineating the scope of these laws exist, and some of them are neither environmental nor water laws per se. The resulting legal situation is one of confusion, duality and even contradiction both institutionally and substantively. A revision in the Israeli approach towards the regulation of industrial effluent is proposed, taking into consideration some elements of the U.S. Clean Water Act. Ideas are presented for setting up jurisdictional boundaries between the local and central government authorities to differentiate between organic loads and hazardous materials. In addition, the paper calls for criteria and discretionary limits on the setting up of permit conditions and enactment of regulations as well as the need for improvement of existing effluent criteria.

scholarly journals 4494 Predictors of Reintubation After Cardiac Surgery

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (s1) ◽  
pp. 50-50
Author(s):  
Robert Edward Freundlich ◽  
Gen Li ◽  
Jonathan P Wanderer ◽  
Frederic T Billings ◽  
Henry Domenico ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Cardiac Surgery ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Query Language ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Clinical Care ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Calibration Plot ◽  
Iterative Model ◽  
Strong Candidate

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: We modeled risk of reintubation within 48 hours of cardiac surgery using variables available in the electronic health record (EHR). This model will guide recruitment for a prospective, pragmatic clinical trial entirely embedded within the EHR among those at high risk of reintubation. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: All adult patients admitted to the cardiac intensive care unit following cardiac surgery involving thoracotomy or sternotomy were eligible for inclusion. Data were obtained from operational and analytical databases integrated into the Epic EHR, as well as institutional and departmental-derived data warehouses, using structured query language. Variables were screened for inclusion in the model based on clinical relevance, availability in the EHR as structured data, and likelihood of timely documentation during routine clinical care, in the hopes of obtaining a maximally-pragmatic model. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: A total of 2325 patients met inclusion criteria between November 2, 2017 and November 2, 2019. Of these patients, 68.4% were male. Median age was 63.0. The primary outcome of reintubation occurred in 112/2325 (4.8%) of patients within 48 hours and 177/2325 (7.6%) at any point in the subsequent hospital encounter. Univariate screening and iterative model development revealed numerous strong candidate predictors (ANOVA plot, figure 1), resulting in a model with acceptable calibration (calibration plot, figure 2), c = 0.666. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Reintubation is common after cardiac surgery. Risk factors are available in the EHR. We are integrating this model into the EHR to support real-time risk estimation and to recruit and randomize high-risk patients into a clinical trial comparing post-extubation high flow nasal cannula with usual care. CONFLICT OF INTEREST DESCRIPTION: REF has received grant funding and consulting fees from Medtronic for research on inpatient monitoring.

scholarly journals Ruin problems in Markov-modulated risk models

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
David C.M. Dickson ◽  
Marjan Qazvini
Keyword(s):  
Continuous Time ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Numerical Algorithms ◽  
Binomial Model ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Time Of Ruin ◽  
Compound Binomial ◽  
Compound Binomial Model ◽  
Markov Modulated ◽  
The Time Of Ruin

AbstractChen et al. (2014), studied a discrete semi-Markov risk model that covers existing risk models such as the compound binomial model and the compound Markov binomial model. We consider their model and build numerical algorithms that provide approximations to the probability of ultimate ruin and the probability and severity of ruin in a continuous time two-state Markov-modulated risk model. We then study the finite time ruin probability for a discrete m-state model and show how we can approximate the density of the time of ruin in a continuous time Markov-modulated model with more than two states.

scholarly journals On a Class of Semi-Markov Risk Models Obtained as Classical Risk Models in a Markovian Environment

1984 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Marie Reinhard
Keyword(s):  
Risk Model ◽  
Risk Process ◽  
Ruin Probabilities ◽  
Sufficient Condition ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient Condition ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Markovian Environment ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
Natural Way ◽  
Quantities Of Interest

AbstractWe consider a risk model in which the claim inter-arrivals and amounts depend on a markovian environment process. Semi-Markov risk models are so introduced in a quite natural way. We derive some quantities of interest for the risk process and obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for the fairness of the risk (positive asymptotic non-ruin probabilities). These probabilities are explicitly calculated in a particular case (two possible states for the environment, exponential claim amounts distributions).

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document