Developments in Reliability-Based Corrosion Management and the Significance of In-Line Inspection Uncertainties

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Stephens ◽  
Albert van Roodselaar
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Corrosion Failure ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty ◽  
Operational Characteristics ◽  
Inspection Process ◽  
Explicit Consideration ◽  
Inspection Data

The pipeline industry is moving to embrace more quantitative analysis methods for assessing pipeline integrity and demonstrating the benefits of integrity maintenance programs. Analysis based on structural reliability concepts is ideally suited to this purpose. In the context of corrosion management, the essence of this approach is to combine appropriate failure prediction models, in-line inspection data, the physical and operational characteristics of the pipeline, and corrosion growth rate projections, within a probabilistic analysis framework, to estimate the likelihood of corrosion failure as a function of time. A key element in this analysis approach is explicit consideration of all significant forms of uncertainty, including the uncertainties inherent in the data obtained from in-line inspection. This paper provides an overview of an ongoing research project, sponsored by the Pipeline Research Council International (PRCI), which is developing a reliability-based process that will form the basis for an industry-accepted approach to assessing and managing pipeline integrity with respect to corrosion. It also discusses the sources of uncertainty inherent in the in-line inspection process and their significance in the context of corrosion reliability analysis.

A Comprehensive Approach to Corrosion Management Based on Structural Reliability Methods

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Stephens ◽  
Maher Nessim
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Corrosion Damage ◽  
Metal Loss ◽  
Corrosion Failure ◽  
Probability Estimates ◽  
Reliability Methods ◽  
Inspection Data

Quantitative analysis approaches based on structural reliability methods are gaining wider acceptance as a basis for assessing pipeline integrity and these methods are ideally suited to managing metal loss corrosion damage as identified through in-line inspection. The essence of this approach is to combine deterministic failure prediction models with in-line inspection data, the physical and operational characteristics of the pipeline, corrosion growth rate projections, and the uncertainties inherent in this information, to estimate the probability of corrosion failure as a function of time. The probability estimates so obtained provide the basis for informed decisions on which defects to repair, when to repair them and when to re-inspect. While much has been written in recent years on these types of analyses, the authors are not aware of any published methods that address all of the factors that can significantly influence the probability estimates obtained from such an analysis. Of particular importance in this context are the uncertainties associated with the reported defect data, the uncertainties associated with the models used to predict failure from this defect data, and the approach used to discriminate between failure by leak and failure by burst. The correct discrimination of failure mode is important because tolerable failure probabilities should depend on the mode of failure, with lower limits being required for burst failures because the consequences of failure are typically orders of magnitude more severe than for leaks. This paper provides an overview of a probabilistic approach to corrosion defect management that addresses the key sources of uncertainty and discriminates between failure modes. This approach can be used to assess corrosion integrity based on in-line inspection data, schedule defect repairs and provide guidance in establishing re-inspection intervals.

Reliability-Based Corrosion Management: The Impact of Maintenance and Implications for the Time to Next Inspection

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Stephens ◽  
Maher Nessim ◽  
Albert van Roodselaar
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Metal Loss ◽  
Corrosion Failure ◽  
Remediation Strategies ◽  
Cost Effective Approach ◽  
Beneficial Impact ◽  
Inspection Data ◽  
The Impact

Quantitative analysis based on structural reliability methods is ideally suited to managing corrosion and cracking damage in pipelines as identified through in-line inspection. An ongoing industry-sponsored initiative has laid out a reliability-based process that is intended to form the basis for an industry-accepted approach to assessing and managing pipeline integrity with respect to these damage mechanisms, with an initial focus on metal-loss corrosion. The process combines appropriate failure prediction models, in-line inspection data, the physical and operational characteristics of the pipeline, and corrosion growth rate projections, within a probabilistic analysis framework, to estimate the likelihood of corrosion failure as a function of time. It also provides the means to assess the beneficial impact of selective and staged defect remediation and to evaluate candidate remediation strategies to determine the most cost-effective approach. This paper summarizes the reliability-based assessment and integrity management process. It also illustrates how the results provided can be used to determine the most cost-effective maintenance strategy in terms of the number of features to be remediated and the preferred time to next inspection.

CORRECTION OF PREDICTION MODEL OUTPUT–APPLICATION TO GENERAL CORROSION MODEL

2021 ◽  
Vol 156 (A4) ◽  
Author(s):  
N Hifi ◽  
N Barltrop
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
General Corrosion ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Reliability Models ◽  
Corrosion Model ◽  
Recorded Data

This paper applies a newly developed methodology to calibrate the corrosion model within a structural reliability analysis. The methodology combines data from experience (measurements and expert judgment) and prediction models to adjust the structural reliability models. Two corrosion models published in the literature have been used to demonstrate the technique used for the model calibration. One model is used as a prediction for a future degradation and a second one to represent the inspection recorded data. The results of the calibration process are presented and discussed.

Bridge Inspection and Management System Based on Smart Phone

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanbing Ding ◽  
Ruicong Han ◽  
Hao Liu ◽  
Shengyuan Li ◽  
Xuefeng Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Management System ◽  
Smart Phone ◽  
Mobile Network ◽  
Technical Condition ◽  
Bridge Inspection ◽  
Condition Rating ◽  
Inspection Process ◽  
Inspection Work ◽  
Inspection Data ◽  
User Friendly

For the traditional inspection methods, the visual inspection data is firstly recorded on the inspection forms and then input manually into computer, which is inefficient and creates errors frequently. This research aims at establishing a smartphone-based bridge inspection and management system that can avoid such inputting errors and facilitate the bridge inspection process. The system enables the inspector to complete the inspection information collection in a portable smart phone. The site photos that related to the investigated structures can be easily added and edited during the inspection work with the help of the smart phone. After the investigation, the inspection report and the technical condition rating of the inspected bridge can be automatically generated. The collected data and the GPS information can be uploaded to the terminal server directly via the mobile network. The interface of the mobile software is user-friendly and easy operation, which provides an opportunity for the public to take part in the bridge inspection work, especially for the bridges in rural and mountainous areas. Then, this paper puts forward the relevant ideas on public participation in bridges’ emergency assessment and disposal after the disaster, which can provide data support for the decision-making and disaster relief work.

Can we understand complex systems in terms of risk analysis?

2011 ◽  
Vol 226 (3) ◽  
pp. 346-358
Author(s):  
J Vatn
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Complexity Analysis ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Safety Critical ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Integrated Operations ◽  
Quantifying Uncertainty

The concept of integrated operations (IO) introduces new ways of operations in the offshore petroleum industry. IO is often characterized by virtual decision arenas where many safety critical decisions are supported and made by distributed actors with different rationalities and responsibilities. This will challenge more traditional decision processes in several ways and it has been questioned whether the risk analysis framework can handle what some authors denote as emerging and escaping risks. Complexity is often considered as a source of such risks. In this paper risk is defined as uncertainty regarding occurrence and severity of undesired events. Next a variety of techniques for structuring and quantifying uncertainty are listed. To approach complexity it is proposed to identify a set of complexity characteristics in relation to the accidental scenarios to be undertaken in the analysis. This enables uncertainty due to complexity to be approached within the same framework as that used to cope with other sources of uncertainty. The important steps in such an integrated risk and complexity analysis are listed, and some of these steps are discussed in the light of examples relevant to IO.

Calibration of Safety Factors for DNV RP-F105 Free Spanning Pipelines

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gudfinnur Sigurdsson ◽  
Kim Mo̸rk ◽  
Olav Fyrileiv
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Damage ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Uncertainty Modeling ◽  
Submarine Pipeline ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Sources Of Uncertainty ◽  
Fatigue Design ◽  
Vortex Induced Vibrations ◽  
Stochastic Parameters ◽  
Pipeline Design

Free spans often become a significant challenge in pipeline design and operation due to uneven seabed or seabed scouring effects. The trend towards deeper waters, harsher environment and installation of pipelines at very uneven seabed often implies a high number of free spans. High costs related to span intervention puts focus on minimizing these costs and still ensure integrity of the pipeline with respect to vortex induced vibrations (VIV) and associated fatigue damage. On the other hand the potential costs related to fatigue failure of a pipeline (recovery costs and economical loss) are enormous. Therefore it is essential to ensure that the probability of failure for free spans is within acceptable limits, e.g. as required by DNV-OS-F101 “Submarine Pipeline Systems”. This paper describes the structural reliability analysis performed to obtain the safety factors for free span fatigue design. Accumulation of fatigue damage due to VIV of free spans is associated with various sources of uncertainty. The important stochastic parameters are described, and the basis for the uncertainty modeling given. The calibration scope defined from a set of different pipeline cases, span scenarios, and environmental conditions is presented from which calibration results and sensitivities will be discussed.

Application of RAM Methods in the Structural Reliability Assessment of Corroded Offshore Pipelines

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kofi S. Inkabi ◽  
Robert G. Bea
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
State Model ◽  
Offshore Pipelines ◽  
Operational Characteristics ◽  
Comprehensive Reliability

A comprehensive reliability based formulation is proposed for the assessment of the integrity of corroded pipelines. In this formulation, the inspection technique, the pipeline geometric, material, and operational characteristics, and Limit State model for burst are combined in a general approach. This approach is illustrated with application to evaluation of an in-service gas pipeline.

Exploring the Effects of Vehicular and Operational Characteristics on Bus Roadworthiness: An Application of the Multilevel Modeling Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 2673 (4) ◽  
pp. 811-822 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianrong Qiu ◽  
David B. Logan ◽  
Jennifer Oxley ◽  
Christopher Lowe
Keyword(s):  
Data Structure ◽  
Multilevel Modeling ◽  
Multilevel Analysis ◽  
Hierarchical Structure ◽  
Research Evidence ◽  
Hierarchical Data ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Operational Characteristics ◽  
The Hierarchical Structure ◽  
Inspection Data

This paper examines the effects of vehicular and operational characteristics on bus roadworthiness. The analysis was based on annual bus inspection data in Victoria, Australia, between 2014 and 2017, consisting of 17,630 inspections of 6,447 vehicles run by 252 operators. A multilevel modeling approach was employed to account for the hierarchical data structure where inspections are nested within vehicles and vehicles within operators. The results offered insights into the effects on bus roadworthiness of characteristics attributable to inspections, vehicles, and operators. The probability of failing an inspection was found to be positively associated with vehicle age and odometer reading. Vehicle make played an important role in roadworthiness outcome, with the performance of different makes varying significantly. Small operators carried the highest risk of failure and large operators the lowest, irrespective of the location of operation. The multilevel analysis revealed that 28.9% of the variation in inspection outcomes occurred across operators and 5.2% across vehicles, which verified the presence of the hierarchical structure. The findings from this study provide safety regulators with solid research evidence to formulate policies aimed at enhancing bus roadworthiness.

scholarly journals How modern data management software and state of the art inspection gauges improve the efficiency of the pipeline coating inspection process

2019 ◽  
Vol 121 ◽  
pp. 05001
Author(s):  
David Barnes
Keyword(s):  
Data Management ◽  
Surface Profile ◽  
Test Methods ◽  
Data Management System ◽  
Pipeline Inspection ◽  
Inspection Process ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
Inspection Data ◽  
The Cost

The inspection of pipeline coating is crucial to the lifetime performance of the pipeline. Inspection during installation of the pipeline and as part of the routine maintenance programme is essential. It is often said that inspection processes save money by ensuring that relevant specifications are achieved but that writing reports for the inspection process cost money. One way to reduce the cost of inspection reporting and to speed up the inspection process is to use a data management system to present the inspection data in a consistent and organised manner. The automation of the reporting process is an important cost saving that allows more time to be allocated to the important task of inspection and the achievement of the coating specification. There have been recent developments in both the design of reporting software and inspection gauges which together make achieving a paperless quality assurance system a reality for all protective coating applications. This paper describes the latest design and operational features of coating thickness gauges, dewpoint meters, surface profile gauges and other related gauges and describes how data can be easily transferred from the memory of these gauges into personal computers and mobile devices by running a dedicated software program for coating inspection data management. The creation of reports combining test results from a broad range of both digital and non-digital test methods will be discussed with particular emphasis on the use of Standard reports and the preparation of pre-formatted report forms.

Associating 2D Sketch Information with 3D CAD Models for VR/AR Viewing During Bridge Maintenance Process

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 482-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fumiki Tanaka ◽  
Makoto Tsuchida ◽  
Masahiko Onosato ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Computer Aided Design ◽  
Mixed Reality ◽  
Industry Foundation Classes ◽  
3D Cad ◽  
Inspection Process ◽  
Cad Models ◽  
Maintenance And Inspection ◽  
Inspection Data ◽  
Aided Design ◽  
2D Sketches

Virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and mixed reality technologies are utilized at various stages of product lifecycle. For products with long lifecycles such as bridges and dams, the maintenance and inspection stages are very important to keep the product safe and well-functioning. One of the advantages of VR/AR is the ability to add important information such as past inspection data. Past inspection information is summarized in a document consisting of the 2D sketches of bridge degradation drawings. However, this degradation sketch is in 2D, and it has no correspondence with the 3D world. In this study, we propose a method to associate important information of 2D sketches with a 3D industry foundation classes (IFC) model, which is a standardized computer aided design model. To display a VR image of a bridge during the inspection process, the proposed method is applied to the 3D IFC model of the bridge and 2D degradation sketch of the inspection report.

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