scholarly journals System Reliability Estimation With Input Data From Deterministic Simulations

Author(s):  
Jonas Pavasson ◽  
Magnus Karlberg

The possibility of estimating reliability of hardware, both for components and systems, is important in engineering design, since many failures result in substantial impact on safety or functional requirements. Existing reliability estimation methods require measured or estimated input data which can be difficult to retrieve. The objective of this paper is therefore to derive a simulation-driven method, including variation management, for combining deterministic simulations with Fault Tree Analysis, to estimate system reliability when measured data is not available. The research work started with a literature survey followed by description of a typical as-is situation and definition of a to-be scenario. Then, a simulation-driven method was derived and verified by a case study. In particular, the system used for the case study was modeled and simulated as a transient dynamical system to derive information about loads on components. It was found that deterministic simulations can be used to produce relevant input data for fault tree analysis. The derived simulation-driven system reliability estimation method includes variation management and can be used for evaluation of concepts in the early stages of product development when limited measurement data is available.

2013 ◽  
Vol 325-326 ◽  
pp. 590-593
Author(s):  
Fei Xiang Wei ◽  
Yang Song ◽  
Xiao Xu Ma ◽  
Ying Qian

The transmission line is an important part of the power system, its reliability will directly affect the reliability of the power system. The reliability of the overhead line plays a crucial role for the power system reliability. This paper analyze the reasons of the falling of the overhead lines, establish a fault tree, and make qualitative and quantitative analysis of the fault tree.


Author(s):  
Frank H. Johnson ◽  
DeWitt William E.

Analytical Tools, Like Fault Tree Analysis, Have A Proven Track Record In The Aviation And Nuclear Industries. A Positive Tree Is Used To Insure That A Complex Engineered System Operates Correctly. A Negative Tree (Or Fault Tree) Is Used To Investigate Failures Of Complex Engineered Systems. Boeings Use Of Fault Tree Analysis To Investigate The Apollo Launch Pad Fire In 1967 Brought National Attention To The Technique. The 2002 Edition Of Nfpa 921, Guide For Fire And Explosion Investigations, Contains A New Chapter Entitled Failure Analysis And Analytical Tools. That Chapter Addresses Fault Tree Analysis With Respect To Fire And Explosion Investigation. This Paper Will Review The Fundamentals Of Fault Tree Analysis, List Recent Peer Reviewed Papers About The Forensic Engineering Use Of Fault Tree Analysis, Present A Relevant Forensic Engineering Case Study, And Conclude With The Results Of A Recent University Study On The Subject.


Author(s):  
MARY ANN LUNDTEIGEN ◽  
MARVIN RAUSAND

This article presents a practical approach to reliability assessment of a complex safety instrumented system that is susceptible to common cause failures. The approach is based on fault tree analysis where the common cause failures are included by post-processing the minimal cut sets. The approach is illustrated by a case study of a safety instrumented function of a workover control system that is used during maintenance interventions into subsea oil and gas wells. The case study shows that the approach is well suited for identifying potential failures in complex systems and for including design engineers in the verification of the reliability analyses. Unlike many software tools for fault tree analysis, the approach gives conservative estimates for reliability. The suggested approach represents a useful extension to current reliability analysis methods.


Author(s):  
Rajkumar B. Patil ◽  
Digvijay A. Mhamane ◽  
Pruthwiraj B Kothavale ◽  
Basavraj Kothavale

1977 ◽  
Vol 72 (358) ◽  
pp. 482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert G. Easterling ◽  
R. E. Barlow ◽  
J. B. Fussel ◽  
N. D. Singpurwalla

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (01) ◽  
pp. 107-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Fazlollahtabar ◽  
Seyed Taghi Akhavan Niaki

In this paper, minimal paths and cuts technique is developed to handle fault tree analysis (FTA) on the critical components of industrial robots. This analysis is integrated with the reliability block diagram (RBD) approach in order to investigate the robot system reliability. The model is implemented in a complex advanced manufacturing system having autonomous guided vehicles (AGVs) as material handling devices. FTA grants cause and effects and hierarchical properties to the model. On the other hand, RBD simplifies the complex system of the AGVs for reliability evaluation. The results show that due to the filtering of the paths in a manufacturing system for AGVs, the reliability is highly dependent on the mostly occupied paths by AGVs. The failure probability for the AGV is considered to follow the exponential probability distribution and thus the whole system reliability using minimal paths and cuts method is obtained 0.8741.


2013 ◽  
Vol 779-780 ◽  
pp. 1711-1714
Author(s):  
Yuan Liang Huang ◽  
Jia Qi Zhong

A novel fault tree analysis theory is introduced for the ambiguity in complex systems. In the theory, the frequency grey number, which can express the events subjective ambiguity and objective ambiguity, is introduced to express the degree and probability that the components go wrong, dynamic envelope is applied to score the relation among components, and a new logic gate, Grey-gate, is advanced for expressing the effect of system reliability when the components go wrong. Finally, the theory is applied to analyze the fault effect of the system with software and hardware.


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