Bayesian Analysis of Piping Failure Frequency Using OECD/NEA Data

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Wang ◽  
M. D. Pandey ◽  
J. Riznic
Keyword(s):  
Failure Rate ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Bayesian Procedure ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Nuclear Plants ◽  
Consistent Manner ◽  
Construction Operation ◽  
Service Inspection

The estimation of piping failure frequency is an important task to support the probabilistic risk analysis and risk-informed in-service inspection of nuclear power plant systems (NPPs). Although various probabilistic models have been proposed in the literature, this paper describes a hierarchical or two-stage Poisson-gamma Bayesian procedure to analyze this problem. In the first stage, a generic distribution of failure rate is developed based on the failure observations from a group of similar plants. This distribution represents the interplant (plant-to-plant) variability arising from differences in construction, operation and maintenance conditions. In the second stage, the generic prior obtained from the first stage is updated by using the data specific to a particular plant, and thus a posterior distribution of plan specific failure rate is derived. The two-stage Bayesian procedure is able to incorporate different levels of variability in a more consistent manner. The proposed approach is applied to estimate the failure frequency using the OECD/NEA pipe leakage data for the U.S. nuclear plants.

Bayesian Analysis of Piping Leak Frequency Using OECD/NEA Data

2010 ◽  
Vol 132 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Wang ◽  
Mahesh D. Pandey ◽  
Jovica R. Riznic
Keyword(s):  
Failure Rate ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bayesian Procedure ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Nuclear Plants ◽  
Consistent Manner ◽  
Construction Operation

The estimation of piping failure frequency is an important task to support the probabilistic risk analysis and risk-informed in-service inspection of nuclear power plant systems. This paper describes a hierarchical or two-stage Poisson-gamma Bayesian procedure and applies this to estimate the failure frequency using the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency pipe leakage data for the United States nuclear plants. In the first stage, a generic distribution of failure rate is developed based on the failure observations from a group of similar plants. This distribution represents the interplant (plant-to-plant) variability arising from differences in construction, operation, and maintenance conditions. In the second stage, the generic prior obtained from the first stage is updated by using the data specific to a particular plant, and thus a posterior distribution of plan specific failure rate is derived. The two-stage Bayesian procedure is able to incorporate different levels of variability in a more consistent manner.

A Stochastic Model for Piping Failure Frequency Analysis Using OPDE Data

2009 ◽  
Vol 131 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
X.-X. Yuan ◽  
M. D. Pandey ◽  
J. Riznic
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Pipe Failure ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Class 1

The accurate estimation of piping failure frequency is an important task to support the probabilistic risk assessment and risk-informed in-service inspection of nuclear power plants. Although probabilistic models have been reported in the literature to analyze the piping failure frequency, this paper proposes a stochastic point process model that incorporates both a time dependent trend and plant-specific (or cohort) effects on the failure rate. A likelihood based statistical method is proposed for estimating the model parameters. A case study is presented to analyze the Class 1 pipe failure data given in the OPDE Database.

Optimization of Maintenance Strategy for Sea Water Pumps in Nuclear Plants

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ling Zhao ◽  
Deyi Liu ◽  
Ming Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Safety Analysis ◽  
Calculation Model ◽  
Water Pump ◽  
Initial Event ◽  
Maintenance Program ◽  
Nuclear Plants ◽  
Water Pumps ◽  
Service Inspection

Abstract Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) methodology is a significant supplement to the deterministic safety analysis in the nuclear power plant. PSA can be used to evaluate the NPP device change, equipment maintenance, in service inspection. The practicability of modifying sea water pump maintenance programme is evaluated in this paper by determining the initial event probability in fault-tree and modifying the PSA calculation model. Based on the evaluation results, the preventive maintenance of sea water pump and 6kv switch can be changed from executed in the plant overhaul to executed in the routine maintenance. This could make a great contribution in optimizing the NPP sea water pump maintenance program.

A Point Process Model for Piping Failure Frequency Analysis Using OPDE Data

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
X.-X. Yuan ◽  
M. D. Pandey ◽  
J. Riznic
Keyword(s):  
Point Process ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Pipe Failure ◽  
Point Process Model ◽  
Failure Frequency

The accurate estimation of piping failure frequency is an important task to support the probabilistic risk assessment and risk-informed in-service inspection of nuclear power plants. Although probabilistic models have been reported in the literature to analyze the piping failure frequency, this paper proposes a stochastic point process model that incorporates both a time dependent trend and plant specific (or cohort) effects on the failure rate. A likelihood based statistical method is proposed for estimating the model parameters. A case study is presented to analyze the Class 1 pipe failure data given in the OPDE Database.

In-Service Inspection and On-Line Monitoring of Inaccessible Components in Nuclear Power Plants Using Guided Wave Technology

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florin Turcu ◽  
Mauro Cappelli ◽  
Davide Mazzini ◽  
Sergio Pistelli ◽  
Marco Raugi
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Guided Waves ◽  
Guided Wave ◽  
Ultrasonic Guided Waves ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
Nuclear Plants ◽  
On Line ◽  
Service Inspection

One of the most challenging problems in the on-line monitoring of critical parameters of nuclear plants is the inspection of components that result inaccessible or difficult to reach. In this context, there is an increasing interest of the scientific community and industry for the use of Ultrasonic Guided Waves (UGW) for addressing this issue. In this work, the problem of the applicability of the UGW technique with magnetostrictive sensors to NPP structures is described, together with the outline of the related advantages as well as the main technical concerns that may arise from such applications. This methodology has been tested on experimental activities concerning high temperature applications. Results show the effectiveness of such an approach.

scholarly journals Application of Explosion-Proof RFID Technology in Nuclear Power Plants

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-132
Author(s):  
Namjin Cho ◽  
Dongsu Im ◽  
Jungdon Kwon ◽  
Teayeon Cho ◽  
Junglim Lee
Keyword(s):  
Radio Frequency ◽  
Radio Frequency Identification ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Nuclear Power Plants ◽  
Ignition Source ◽  
Rfid Technology ◽  
Nuclear Plants ◽  
Frequency Identification

Nuclear power plants store and use flammable gases and liquids and consequently risk explosions. Therefore, nuclear plants employ explosion-proof equipment; however, this equipment is not always sufficiently maintained. This lack of maintenance can affect the safety-related equipment intended to shut down the reactor, because the explosion-proof equipment itself can act as an ignition source. Radio-frequency identification (RFID) technology should be explored as a tool to improve both the convenience and efficiency of maintenance. We analyzed and compared explosion-proof RFID technology that can be used in nuclear power plants.

An Advanced Method for Evaluating Risk From Seismically-Induced Internal Fires and Floods

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul J. Amico ◽  
Pierre Macheret ◽  
Robert P. Kassawara
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Advanced Method ◽  
Plant Safety ◽  
Nuclear Plants ◽  
Significant Interest ◽  
Realistic Representation ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant Safety ◽  
Technical Guidance

It has been traditional in assessment of nuclear power plant safety that both deterministic safety analyses and probabilistic safety analyses treat the potential effects of various hazards individually. That is, the safety implications of internal events (e.g., randomly occurring transients and LOCAs), internal hazards (e.g., internal fire and flood), and external hazards (e.g., earthquakes, tornados) are treated as independent occurrences. With the occurrence of the Great Tohoku earthquake and the effects observed at nuclear plants in Japan, it was realized that this approach failed to provide a realistic representation of risk, and now there is a significant interest in correlated hazards. As a result, EPRI embarked on the development of an improved methodology focusing on seismically-induced internal fires and internal floods. All the technical work on the methodology has been completed and draft technical guidance developed. This guidance has been provided to some plants that are interested in piloting the methodology. As of the date of paper submittal, two pilots are underway and three more are under consideration. Upon completion of the pilots, the methodology will be updated to incorporate the lessons-learned and published.

Integration Options for Nuclear Steam Cycle Using Liquid Air Energy Storage

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin Young Heo ◽  
Won Woong Lee ◽  
Jung Hwan Park ◽  
Jeong Ik Lee
Keyword(s):  
Energy Storage ◽  
Steam Turbine ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Storage Systems ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Packed Bed ◽  
Round Trip ◽  
Energy Storage Systems ◽  
Nuclear Plants ◽  
Steam Cycle

Abstract To facilitate the energy transition, the conventional baseload nuclear power must be equipped with flexibility. By integrating grid-scale energy storage systems to the existing nuclear plants, they can curtail their load to avoid surplus generation. Liquid air energy storage (LAES) has been steadily investigated for their advantages, and this paper suggests an integrated layout using mechanical drive steam turbine and packed bed energy storage systems. Possible options for integration of LAES to the existing nuclear steam cycle are considered. The performance of packed bed storage systems is analyzed using transient modeling, and the results are fed into the overall cycle design using an in-house code. The results of the analysis suggests that the concept can reach up to 45.7–59.8% in round-trip efficiency, under much simplified cycle layout than the reference LAES layouts.

The organisation & the costs of the decommissioning nuclear plants in the UK

2009 ◽  
pp. 63-82
Author(s):  
Steve Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Key Words ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Nuclear Fuels ◽  
Nuclear Facilities ◽  
Nuclear Decommissioning ◽  
Nuclear Plants ◽  
New Public ◽  
Public Body ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Jel Classifications

- UK electricity consumers have paid provisions for decommissioning since before 1980 but by 2002, there were still negligible funds available to pay for decommissioning civil nuclear facilities. By then, the two major UK nuclear companies, British Energy and British Nuclear Fuels Limited (BNFL), were both effectively bankrupt. This paper examines: the pre-2002 provisions for decommissioning and how they were lost; the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority, a new public body which took over ownership of BNFL's facilities including the duty to manage their decommissioning and how it expects to carry out and fund decommissioning of its sites; how the re-launched British Energy will contribute to decommissioning its eight plants; and government plans for collecting decommissioning provisions for any new plants.JEL classifications: L50, L38, H23, H44, L71Key words: Nuclear power, decommissioning cost, funding and polluter pays.

scholarly journals MARSplines method as a tool for failure frequency modelling

2018 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 00086
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Kutyłowska
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Failure Rate ◽  
Basis Function ◽  
Adaptive Algorithm ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Water Utility ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Rate Prediction ◽  
Operational Data

The paper presents the results of failure rate prediction using adaptive algorithm MARSplines. This method could be defined as segmental and multiple linear regression. The range of segments defines the range of applicability of that methodology. On the basis of operational data received from Water Utility two separate models were created for distribution pipes and house connections. The calculations were carried out in the programme Statistica 13.1. Maximal number of basis function was equalled to 30; so-called pruning was used. Interaction level equalled to 1, the penalty for adding basis function amounted to 2, and the threshold – 0.0005. GCV error equalled to 0.0018 and 0.0253 as well as 0.0738 and 0.1058 for distribution pipes and house connections in learning and prognosis process, respectively. The prediction results in validation step were not satisfactory in relation to distribution pipes, because constant value of failure rate was observed. Concerning house connections, the forecasting was slightly better, but still the overestimation seems to be unacceptable from engineering point of view.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document