Bayesian Analysis of Piping Leak Frequency Using OECD/NEA Data

2010 ◽  
Vol 132 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Wang ◽  
Mahesh D. Pandey ◽  
Jovica R. Riznic
Keyword(s):  
Failure Rate ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bayesian Procedure ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Nuclear Plants ◽  
Consistent Manner ◽  
Construction Operation

The estimation of piping failure frequency is an important task to support the probabilistic risk analysis and risk-informed in-service inspection of nuclear power plant systems. This paper describes a hierarchical or two-stage Poisson-gamma Bayesian procedure and applies this to estimate the failure frequency using the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency pipe leakage data for the United States nuclear plants. In the first stage, a generic distribution of failure rate is developed based on the failure observations from a group of similar plants. This distribution represents the interplant (plant-to-plant) variability arising from differences in construction, operation, and maintenance conditions. In the second stage, the generic prior obtained from the first stage is updated by using the data specific to a particular plant, and thus a posterior distribution of plan specific failure rate is derived. The two-stage Bayesian procedure is able to incorporate different levels of variability in a more consistent manner.

Bayesian Analysis of Piping Failure Frequency Using OECD/NEA Data

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Wang ◽  
M. D. Pandey ◽  
J. Riznic
Keyword(s):  
Failure Rate ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Bayesian Procedure ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Nuclear Plants ◽  
Consistent Manner ◽  
Construction Operation ◽  
Service Inspection

The estimation of piping failure frequency is an important task to support the probabilistic risk analysis and risk-informed in-service inspection of nuclear power plant systems (NPPs). Although various probabilistic models have been proposed in the literature, this paper describes a hierarchical or two-stage Poisson-gamma Bayesian procedure to analyze this problem. In the first stage, a generic distribution of failure rate is developed based on the failure observations from a group of similar plants. This distribution represents the interplant (plant-to-plant) variability arising from differences in construction, operation and maintenance conditions. In the second stage, the generic prior obtained from the first stage is updated by using the data specific to a particular plant, and thus a posterior distribution of plan specific failure rate is derived. The two-stage Bayesian procedure is able to incorporate different levels of variability in a more consistent manner. The proposed approach is applied to estimate the failure frequency using the OECD/NEA pipe leakage data for the U.S. nuclear plants.

Verification of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis Code Through Benchmark Analyses

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yinsheng Li ◽  
Shumpei Uno ◽  
Koichi Masaki ◽  
Jinya Katsuyama ◽  
Terry Dickson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fracture Mechanics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pressure Vessels ◽  
Irradiation Embrittlement ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Pressurized Thermal Shock ◽  
Great Confidence ◽  
Reactor Pressure

A probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) analysis code PASCAL has been developed by Japan Atomic Energy Agency based on Japanese methods and data to evaluate failure probabilities and failure frequencies of Japanese reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) considering pressurized thermal shock (PTS) events and neutron irradiation embrittlement. To verify PASCAL, we have been performing benchmark analyses by using a PFM code FAVOR which has been developed in the United States and utilized in nuclear regulation. Based on two-year activities, the applicability of PASCAL in failure probability and failure frequency evaluation of Japanese RPVs was confirmed with great confidence. The analysis conditions, approaches and results are given in this paper.

Global non-proliferation policies: retrospect and prospect

1982 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Simpson
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Nuclear Proliferation ◽  
The United States ◽  
United States Government ◽  
Nuclear Disarmament ◽  
Supply Contracts ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
States Government ◽  
The Relationship

The 1980 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference will chiefly be remembered for the inability of the delegates to agree on a final document. There were several visible reasons for this, some related to the immediate political concerns of the participants, some linked to the nature of the treaty itself. The statements of the participating states indicated that they held differing conceptions of the purposes of the treaty, and possessed very diverse views on the action that should be taken to achieve them. Four sets of assertions dominated the discussions: that the nuclear states had not fulfilled their obligation to negotiate measures of nuclear disarmament as specified in Article VI of the treaty; that the advanced industrial states had not fulfilled their obligations to assist and encourage the global development of peaceful uses of nuclear energy contained in both Articles IV and V of the treaty; that the attempts by the United States government to discharge its obligations under the 1978 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act by threatening to terminate fuel supply contracts to both treaty parties and non-parties, unless they accepted International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards on all their nuclear installations, was inequitable and improper (the same accusation was also directed at Canada); and that the major danger of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and Africa originated in the threats posed to the states in these regions by the regimes in Israel and South Africa. One issue on which there did appear to be agreement, however, was that the safeguards regime foreshadowed by Article III of the treaty had functioned satisfactorily, in that no Feaches of it had been reported to the Review Conference by the IAEA. Yet the differing interpretations of the balance of rights and obligations contained in the treaty masks a much deeper set of issues: what precisely is the problem of nuclear proliferation, to what extent is the predominant diplomatic rhetoric of nuclear non-proliferation discussions unrepresentative of the real concerns and interests of the participants, what was and is the relationship between nuclear weapons and nuclear power, and does the NPT itself address (or was it ever intended to address) the problem of nuclear proliferation in the form in which it seems likely to be encountered in the 1980s?

Research Concept of Decommissioning Knowledge Management for the Fugen NPP

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasuyoshi Taruta ◽  
Satoshi Yanagihara ◽  
Yukihiro Iguchi ◽  
Koichi Kitamura ◽  
Masashi Tezuka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Semantic Web ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Nuclear Reactor ◽  
Good Method ◽  
Nuclear Facilities ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
The World ◽  
Research Concept ◽  
Construction Operation

In 2002, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) mentioned the strengthening of nuclear knowledge, technology and application. This background has that there are aging of nuclear facility and nuclear power plant staffs. In addition, it would be difficult to succession a nuclear knowledge, technology, and skills. For example, undergraduate departments of nuclear energy and science are decreasing. The IAEA discussing those situations and pointed out the importance of a nuclear knowledge management. The nuclear knowledge management (NKM) is developing a database science as management on nuclear knowledge and information. In recent years, the IAEA has also advanced knowledge taxonomies on nuclear accidents as one of a nuclear knowledge management. In Japan, this achievements of nuclear knowledge taxonomy was using in the organization of information on accidents in Fukushima. A few studies are attempts to appropriately arrange and utilize huge amounts of information. Even in nuclear facilities in Japan, it is pointed out a veteran or expert staff retirement and loss of knowledge and skill caused by this retirement. This problem is common issue in the world. Then, we created a prototype database system to utilize past documentation of knowledge and information. The database made from semantic web technology. The semantic web is a method of preparing a frame of categorized knowledge and linking information related to it. The target is a nuclear reactor of ATR Fugen that is decommissioning from 2008. Until now, cases of decommissioning completion are 17 cases in the world. One case of JPDR in Japan. It is not enough to understand a good method of decommissioning. In general, the decommissioning project requires many information related to dismantling and decontamination. Particular, past information is important to know a past contamination situation and so on. This study focus on an access method for past data and information. However, we need to pay attention to other side of decommissioning project. Because of history of operating reactor has different tasks that are design, construction, operation and decommissioning. It is not appropriate to use the collected information as it is. For that reason, we will continue our research on the points pointed out above.

Technical hurdles may block China nuclear power plans

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
International Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Electricity Supply ◽  
Energy Capacity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nuclear Plants

Subject China's nuclear programme. Significance China has the world's largest fleet of new nuclear plants and plans to increase its nuclear energy capacity more than fivefold over the next 15 years. It is one of the few countries to be adding to capacity, while expansion has largely stalled in Europe, the United States and Japan. Chinese companies have also started to sign deals with other countries to build plants there. Impacts Nuclear energy will enhance security of electricity supply in the economically crucial coastal provinces. Success in its domestic programme would position China to rival Russia in the international market. Nuclear power will help China tackle air pollution, currently a greater political liability than concerns about nuclear safety. Public opinion seems unlikely to become a barrier to expansion unless there is a serious nuclear accident.

Incident Investigation and Root Cause Analysis Method and Technology Review

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guan Jianjun ◽  
Che Yinhui ◽  
Ma Lei
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Root Cause Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Cause Analysis ◽  
Root Cause ◽  
Incident Investigation ◽  
Analysis Methods ◽  
Methods And Techniques ◽  
Application Techniques

Incident investigation and root cause analysis (RCA) are widely used in nuclear power plant incident investigation and root cause confirmation. In this paper, based on the analysis literature reviews of root cause investigation of related incidents in IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), Europe and the United States, the analysis methods and techniques or tools of root causes in the world are studied, the incident investigation and analysis methods and techniques for root causes are analyzed and summarized. Through a comparison of various analysis methods and relevant application techniques and tools, differences between these root cause analysis techniques and tools are elaborated in terms of both concept and applicable application. In addition, application of RCA analysis methods and techniques is also briefed based on domestic RCA application practices.

A New Paradigm: Cycling Operations at Nuclear Power Plants in the United States

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas Hilleman ◽  
Nikhil Kumar ◽  
Steven Lefton
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Nuclear Power Plants ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nuclear Plant ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
Load Following ◽  
Nuclear Plants ◽  
Relative Damage

Nuclear power plants are no longer immune to cycling operation. While certain nuclear power plants in Europe have been performing load following operation, this type of operation has largely been avoided in the United States. Due to increasing contribution of nuclear generation in the mix, European operators were forced to make modifications to increase the maneuverability of their nuclear generation assets. However, in the United States, nuclear generation is still a relatively smaller contributor (19%). Still, with rapid increase in renewable generation, some nuclear plants are being asked to operate at reduced power and cycle to lower power levels. With most future renewable integration studies advocating for increased flexibility on the grid, nuclear generation maneuverability will allow system operators with another resource to mitigate system costs. This paper presents the results of a detailed study of a 1,150 MW boiling water reactor nuclear plant when cycled to low loads. The authors present the relative damage of cycling to various reduced power levels 80% to 15% power levels compared to a cold startup and shutdown of a nuclear plant. An assessment was made of the systems that had fatigue damage and costs. We also discuss some of the limitations of cycling that a nuclear plant has and present and discuss recommendations to reduce damage and costs.

scholarly journals Prospects for Nuclear Power

2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucas W Davis
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
The United States ◽  
Spent Fuel ◽  
Construction Costs ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Nuclear Plants ◽  
History Of ◽  
Cost Of Construction

Nuclear power has long been controversial because of concerns about nuclear accidents, storage of spent fuel, and how the spread of nuclear power might raise risks of the proliferation of nuclear weapons. These concerns are real and important. However, emphasizing these concerns implicitly suggests that unless these issues are taken into account, nuclear power would otherwise be cost effective compared to other forms of electricity generation. This implication is unwarranted. Throughout the history of nuclear power, a key challenge has been the high cost of construction for nuclear plants. Construction costs are high enough that it becomes difficult to make an economic argument for nuclear even before incorporating these external factors. This is particularly true in countries like the United States where recent technological advances have dramatically increased the availability of natural gas. The chairman of one of the largest U.S. nuclear companies recently said that his company would not break ground on a new nuclear plant until the price of natural gas was more than double today's level and carbon emissions cost $25 per ton. This comment summarizes the current economics of nuclear power pretty well. Yes, there is a certain confluence of factors that could make nuclear power a viable economic option. Otherwise, a nuclear power renaissance seems unlikely.

scholarly journals Remarks on Consistent Development of Plant Nodalizations: An Example of Application to the ROSA Integral Test Facility

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Freixa ◽  
A. Manera
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Nuclear Regulatory Commission ◽  
The United States ◽  
Test Facility ◽  
Integral Test ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Water Reactors ◽  
Regulatory Commission

Experimental results obtained at integral test facilities (ITFs) are used in the validation process of system codes for the transient analyses of light water reactors (LWRs). The expertise and guidelines derived from this work are later applied to transient analyses of nuclear power plants (NPPs). However, the boundary conditions at the NPPs will always differ from those at the ITF, and hence, the soundness of the ITF model needs to be maximized. An unaltered ITF nodalization should prove to be able to simulate as many tests as possible, before any conclusion is derived to NPP analyses. The STARS group at the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI) actively participates in several international programs, where ITFs are being used (e.g., ROSA, PKL). Several tests carried out at the ROSA large-scale test facility operated by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) have been simulated in recent years by using the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US-NRC) system code TRACE. In this paper, 5 different posttest analyses are presented, along with the evolution of the employed TRACE nodalization and the process followed to track the consistency of the nodalization modifications. The ROSA TRACE nodalization provided results in a reasonable agreement with all 5 experiments.

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