Current and Future Economics of Parabolic Trough Technology

Solar energy is the largest energy resource on the planet. Unfortunately, it is largely untapped at present, in part because sunlight is a very diffuse energy source. Concentrating solar power (CSP) systems use low cost reflectors to concentrate the sun’s energy to allow it to be used more effectively. Concentrating solar power systems are also well suited for large solar power plants that can be connected into the existing utility infrastructure. These two facts mean that CSP systems can be used to make a meaningful difference in energy supply in a relatively short period. CSP plants are best suited for the arid climates in the Southwestern United States, Northern Mexico, and many desert regions around the globe. A recent Western Governors’ Association siting study [1] found that the solar potential in the U.S. Southwest is at least 4 times the total U.S. electric demand even after eliminating urban areas, environmentally sensitive areas, and all regions with a ground slope greater than 1%.While it is currently not practical to power the whole county from the desert southwest, only a small portion of this area is needed to make a substantial contribution to future U.S. electric needs. Many of the best sites are near existing high-voltage transmission lines and close to major power load centers in the Southwest (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix). In addition, the power provided by CSP technologies has strong coincidence with peak electric demand, especially in the Southwest where peak demand corresponds in large part to air conditioning loads. Parabolic troughs currently represent the most cost-effective CSP technology for developing large utility-scale solar electric power systems. These systems are also one of the most mature solar technologies, with commercial utility-scale plants that have been operating for over 20 years. In addition, substantial improvements have been made to the technology in recent years including improved efficiency and the addition of thermal energy storage. The main issue for parabolic trough technology is that the cost of electricity is still higher than the cost of electricity from conventional natural gas-fired power plants. Although higher natural gas prices are helping to substantially reduce the difference between the cost of electricity from solar and natural gas plants, in the near-term increased incentives such as the 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) are needed to make CSP technology approach competitiveness with natural gas power on a financial basis. In the longer term, additional reductions in the cost of the technology will be necessary. This paper looks at the near-term potential for parabolic trough technology to compete with conventional fossil power resources in the firm, intermediate load power market and at the longer term potential to compete in the baseload power market. The paper will consider the potential impact of a reduced carbon emissions future.