Failure Prediction Model and ESR Modeling of Electrolytic Capacitor With Application to Predictive Maintenance

Author(s):  
Hadi Malek ◽  
Sara Dadras ◽  
YangQuan Chen

Being one of the most used passive components in power electronics, electrolytic capacitors have the shortest life span due to their wear-out failure which is mainly caused by vaporization and deterioration of capacitor electrolyte. Knowing these two phenomena increase Equivalent Series Resistance (ESR) of the capacitor, tracking ESR value over the system operating time can be a good indicator for state of health of an electrolytic capacitor. In order to set the maintenance schedule, various ESR monitoring algorithms computing remaining time before failure have been investigated in literature. These real-time algorithms use classical models for ESR and life-time estimation which are not precise enough and leads the maintenance program to be either risky if the prediction is more than the actual life-time or more expensive if it is much less than the actual life span. This paper presents a generalized equivalent model using fractional order element for electrolytic capacitor to estimate the ESR and impedance of faultless running capacitor. Unlike other existing fractional order models, proposed model considers a fractional order dynamic only in the dielectric losses and the terminal capacitor remains integer order as observed in actual capacitor’s behavior. Furthermore, a novel failure predictive model using Mittage-Leffler function is proposed to track the ESR increment due to aging of the capacitor and estimate the failure time based on the information which are provided through ESR monitoring system. Using this model increase the life-time prediction accuracy. Hence the predictive maintenance of the system with capacitors nearing their failure time can be set more precisely. These two fractional order models are compared against classical ESR and life-time prediction models to illustrate the enhanced performances of the proposed models.

Author(s):  
Ehtesham Husain ◽  
Masood ul Haq

<p><span>The reliability (unreliability) and life testing are important topics in the field of engineering, electronic, <span>medicine, economic and many more, where we are interested in, life of components, human organs, <span>subsystem and system. Statistically, a probability distribution failure time (life time) of a certain form is <span>usually assumed to give reliability of a component for a system for each time t. Some well known <span>parametric life time models (T ≥ 0) are Exponential, Weibull, Inverse Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal, <span>normal ( T&gt;0 ; left truncated ) etc. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>In this paper we consider a system that, has two components with independent but non-identical life time <span>probabilities explained by two distinct random variables say T<span>1 <span>and T<span>2 <span>, where T<span>1 <span>has a constant hazard <span>rate and T<span>2 <span>has an increasing hazard respectively </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br /><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p>


2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cong Bai ◽  
Zhong-Ren Peng ◽  
Qing-Chang Lu ◽  
Jian Sun

Accurate and real-time travel time information for buses can help passengers better plan their trips and minimize waiting times. A dynamic travel time prediction model for buses addressing the cases on road with multiple bus routes is proposed in this paper, based on support vector machines (SVMs) and Kalman filtering-based algorithm. In the proposed model, the well-trained SVM model predicts the baseline bus travel times from the historical bus trip data; the Kalman filtering-based dynamic algorithm can adjust bus travel times with the latest bus operation information and the estimated baseline travel times. The performance of the proposed dynamic model is validated with the real-world data on road with multiple bus routes in Shenzhen, China. The results show that the proposed dynamic model is feasible and applicable for bus travel time prediction and has the best prediction performance among all the five models proposed in the study in terms of prediction accuracy on road with multiple bus routes.


2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 403-415 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Elsheikh ◽  
Soumaya Yacout ◽  
Mohamed-Salah Ouali ◽  
Yasser Shaban

Author(s):  
Dariusz Góral ◽  
◽  
Franciszek Kluza ◽  
Walter E.L. Spiess ◽  
Katarzyna Kozłowicz ◽  
...  

2006 ◽  
Vol 129 (3) ◽  
pp. 275-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrice Guerin ◽  
Ridha Hambli

The constantly increasing market requirements of high quality vehicles ask for the automotive manufacturers to perform lifetime testing to verify the reliability levels of new products. A common problem is that only a small number of examples of a component of system can be tested. In the automotive applications, mechanical components subjected to cyclic loading have to be designed against fatigue. Boot seals are used to protect velocity joint and steering mechanisms in automobiles. These flexible components must accommodate the motions associated with angulation of the steering mechanism. Some regions of the boot seal are always in contact with an internal metal shaft, while other areas come into contact with the metal shaft during angulation. In addition, the boot seal may also come into contact with itself, both internally and externally. The contacting regions affect the performance and longevity of the boot seal. In this paper, the Bayesian estimation of lognormal distribution parameters (usually used to define the fatigue lifetime of rubber components) is studied to improve the accuracy of estimation in incorporating the available knowledge on the product. In particular, the finite element results and expert belief are considered as prior knowledge. For life time prediction by finite element method, a model based on Brown–Miller law was developed for the boot seal rubber-like material.


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