Modeling Information Gathering Decisions in Systems Engineering Projects

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuck Hsiao ◽  
Richard Malak
Keyword(s):  
Systems Engineering ◽  
Information Gathering ◽  
Engineering Problem ◽  
Value Functions ◽  
Amount Of Information ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Resource Requirements ◽  
Markov Decision ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Engineering Projects

Decisions in systems engineering projects commonly are made under significant amounts of uncertainty. This uncertainty can exist in many areas such as the performance of subsystems, interactions between subsystems, or project resource requirements such as budget or personnel. System engineers often can choose to gather information that reduces uncertainty, which allows for potentially better decisions, but at the cost of resources expended in acquiring the information. However, our understanding of how to analyze situations involving gathering information is limited, and thus heuristics, intuition, or deadlines are often used to judge the amount of information gathering needed in a decision. System engineers would benefit from a better understanding of how to determine the amount of information gathering needed to support a decision. This paper introduces Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) as a formalism for modeling information-gathering decisions in systems engineering. A POMDP can model different states, alternatives, outcomes, and probabilities of outcomes to represent a decision maker’s beliefs about his situation. It also can represent sequential decisions in a compact format, avoiding the combinatorial explosion of decision trees and similar representations. The solution of a POMDP, in the form of value functions, prescribes the best course of action based on a decision maker’s beliefs about his situation. The value functions also determine if more information gathering is needed. Sophisticated computational solvers for POMDPs have been developed in recent years, allowing for a straightforward analysis of different alternatives, and determining the optimal course of action in a given situation. This paper demonstrates using a POMDP to model a systems engineering problem, and compares this approach with other approaches that account for information gathering in decision making.

scholarly journals A Framework for Sequential Planning in Multi-Agent Settings

2005 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 49-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Gmytrasiewicz ◽  
P. Doshi
Keyword(s):  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Value Functions ◽  
Value Iteration ◽  
Markov Decision ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
Carry Over ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Partially Observable ◽  
Belief States ◽  
Do So

This paper extends the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) to multi-agent settings by incorporating the notion of agent models into the state space. Agents maintain beliefs over physical states of the environment and over models of other agents, and they use Bayesian updates to maintain their beliefs over time. The solutions map belief states to actions. Models of other agents may include their belief states and are related to agent types considered in games of incomplete information. We express the agents' autonomy by postulating that their models are not directly manipulable or observable by other agents. We show that important properties of POMDPs, such as convergence of value iteration, the rate of convergence, and piece-wise linearity and convexity of the value functions carry over to our framework. Our approach complements a more traditional approach to interactive settings which uses Nash equilibria as a solution paradigm. We seek to avoid some of the drawbacks of equilibria which may be non-unique and do not capture off-equilibrium behaviors. We do so at the cost of having to represent, process and continuously revise models of other agents. Since the agent's beliefs may be arbitrarily nested, the optimal solutions to decision making problems are only asymptotically computable. However, approximate belief updates and approximately optimal plans are computable. We illustrate our framework using a simple application domain, and we show examples of belief updates and value functions.

scholarly journals Nonuniqueness versus Uniqueness of Optimal Policies in Convex Discounted Markov Decision Processes

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Raúl Montes-de-Oca ◽  
Enrique Lemus-Rodríguez ◽  
Francisco Sergio Salem-Silva
Keyword(s):  
Markov Decision Processes ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Value Functions ◽  
Optimal Policies ◽  
Markov Decision ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Classical Point

From the classical point of view, it is important to determine if in a Markov decision process (MDP), besides their existence, the uniqueness of the optimal policies is guaranteed. It is well known that uniqueness does not always hold in optimization problems (for instance, in linear programming). On the other hand, in such problems it is possible for a slight perturbation of the functional cost to restore the uniqueness. In this paper, it is proved that the value functions of an MDP and its cost perturbed version stay close, under adequate conditions, which in some sense is a priority. We are interested in the stability of Markov decision processes with respect to the perturbations of the cost-as-you-go function.

Erfolg der Jungwaldpflege im Schweizer Mittelland? Analyse und Folgerungen (Essay)

2013 ◽  
Vol 164 (9) ◽  
pp. 262-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Ammann
Keyword(s):  
Stand Development ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Tree Species Composition ◽  
Natural Processes ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Tree Thinning ◽  
Swiss Plateau ◽  
Self Differentiation ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Young Growth

Is young growth tending successful in the Swiss Plateau region? Analysis and implications (essay) The effect of the cost-intensive young growth tending used up to the present in the region of the Swiss Plateau is analysed using different approaches. It is evident that young growth tending is not only ineffective with respect to diameter growth but even hinders stand development. Negative effects on quality from young growth tending are also recognised. This is often due to premature interventions in the natural processes of self-differentiation and subsequent systematic errors in the thinning. Furthermore, the effect of tending measures on the tree species composition is often overestimated because in the first 10 to 20 years of stand development, it is primarily the rejuvenation strategy and the site which are decisive. As an alternative course of action, tending concepts are proposed which rely on biological rationalisation and future tree thinning, to achieve future trees which are as vigorous as possible. These are not only more effective, but are also significantly less expensive.

scholarly journals Controllable and decomposable multidirectional synchronizations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gábor Bergmann
Keyword(s):  
Systems Engineering ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Collaborative Systems ◽  
Consistency Constraints ◽  
Restoration Mechanism ◽  
Common Goals ◽  
Access Privileges ◽  
Novel Concept ◽  
Engineering Projects

AbstractStudying large-scale collaborative systems engineering projects across teams with differing intellectual property clearances, or healthcare solutions where sensitive patient data needs to be partially shared, or similar multi-user information systems over databases, all boils down to a common mathematical framework. Updateable views (lenses) and more generally bidirectional transformations are abstractions to study the challenge of exchanging information between participants with different read access privileges. The view provided to each participant must be different due to access control or other limitations, yet also consistent in a certain sense, to enable collaboration towards common goals. A collaboration system must apply bidirectional synchronization to ensure that after a participant modifies their view, the views of other participants are updated so that they are consistent again. While bidirectional transformations (synchronizations) have been extensively studied, there are new challenges that are unique to the multidirectional case. If complex consistency constraints have to be maintained, synchronizations that work fine in isolation may not compose well. We demonstrate and characterize a failure mode of the emergent behaviour, where a consistency restoration mechanism undoes the work of other participants. On the other end of the spectrum, we study the case where synchronizations work especially well together: we characterize very well-behaved multidirectional transformations, a non-trivial generalization from the bidirectional case. For the former challenge, we introduce a novel concept of controllability, while for the latter one, we propose a novel formal notion of faithful decomposition. Additionally, the paper proposes several novel properties of multidirectional transformations.

Optimal stationary strategies in leavable Markov decision processes

1990 ◽  
Vol 27 (01) ◽  
pp. 134-145
Author(s):  
Matthias Fassbender
Keyword(s):  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Stationary Strategies ◽  
Countable State ◽  
Markov Decision ◽  
Bias Optimality ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Optimal Stationary Strategies ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Reward Criterion

This paper establishes the existence of an optimal stationary strategy in a leavable Markov decision process with countable state space and undiscounted total reward criterion. Besides assumptions of boundedness and continuity, an assumption is imposed on the model which demands the continuity of the mean recurrence times on a subset of the stationary strategies, the so-called ‘good strategies'. For practical applications it is important that this assumption is implied by an assumption about the cost structure and the transition probabilities. In the last part we point out that our results in general cannot be deduced from related works on bias-optimality by Dekker and Hordijk, Wijngaard or Mann.

Evaluating the Systems Engineering Problem Management Process for Industrial Manufacturing Problems

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis A. Perry ◽  
Bill Olson ◽  
Paul Blessner ◽  
Timothy D. Blackburn
Keyword(s):  
Systems Engineering ◽  
Engineering Problem ◽  
Management Process ◽  
Problem Management ◽  
Industrial Manufacturing ◽  
Manufacturing Problems

A Microcosting Study of Establishing a Baby Café® in Texas

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rigoberto I. Delgado ◽  
Sara L. Gill
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
San Antonio ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Discounted Cost ◽  
Informal Interview ◽  
Resource Requirements ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Discounted Costs

Background: This article focuses on the costs of opening and running a Baby Café. A Baby Café is an intervention that focuses on providing peer-to-peer support for breastfeeding mothers. Research aim: This study aimed to estimate the costs of establishing and running a Baby Café. Methods: The authors used a microcosting approach to identifying costs using the case of a Baby Café located in San Antonio, Texas, and modeled after other existing cafés in the United States. They also used extensive literature review and conducted an informal interview with a manager of an existing Baby Café in the United States to validate our cost data. The cost analysis was done from the provider perspective. Results: Costs of starting a Baby Café were $36,000, whereas annual operating costs totaled $47,000. Total discounted costs for a 5-year period amounted to $250,000, resulting in a cost per Baby Café session of $521 and cost per mother of $104. Varying the number of sessions per week and number of mothers attending each session, the discounted cost per Baby Café session ranged between $460 and $740 and the cost per mother varied between $65 and $246. Conclusion: These findings can be used by policy makers and organizations to evaluate local resource requirements for starting a Baby Café. Further research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of this intervention against other breastfeeding promoting initiatives.

scholarly journals PENERAPAN INFORMASI AKUNTANSI DIFERENSIAL DALAM PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN MEMBELI ATAU MEMBUAT SENDIRI PRODUK SETENGAH JADI PADA UD. BERKAT ANUGERAH

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Phamela D Tampubolon ◽  
David Paul Elia Saerang ◽  
Agus Toni Poputra
Keyword(s):  
Research Method ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Management Measure ◽  
The Cost

Amid competition is so rapid and uncertain economic conditions, every company is required to be more efficient in order tobe more efficient in orderto survive and all of it can not be separated from the role of management.  Management measure which is occupied to measure the success or failure of the company is profit. To produce an efficient profit differential accounting information requires management to select the best course of action among alternatives available. The purpose of this study is to analyze the application of differential accounting information in the decision to buy or make your own semi-finished products on UD. Berkat Anugerah. This study uses a descriptive research method. The result of the analysis of research conducted on UD. Berkat Anugerah seen from the cost accounting showed diferential role in the short-term decision making, where the company should buy semi-finished products from third party cost incurred due to lower than producing its own.

scholarly journals Comparison of System Methods (Table Form) With Semi Systems from Cost Aspects in the Apartment Meikarta Project

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 126-131
Author(s):  
Anjas Handayani ◽  
Komarul Umam
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Problem Formulation ◽  
Information Gathering ◽  
Unit Price ◽  
Field Observations ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
Efficient Planning ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Work Table

Meikarta Apartment Project at the beginning of the implementation of the method that is used is a formwork system so that the spring mounting groove formwork and casting becomes inhibited. With some consideration, the formwork method was changed from the Semi si stem method to the System (Table Form). Therefore an analysis of costs and time in formwork planning is carried out in order to obtain effective and efficient planning results. At this stage begins with field observations, literature studies include information gathering, problem formulation activities, primary and secondary data and data analysis processing with the Analysis of SNI Work Unit Price (AHS-SNI) 2018 To produce the price of formwork work which includes wages, materials and tool. Based on the results of the analysis carried out on each formwork method, it was concluded that the Cost of Formwork System Work (Table Form) is cheaper compared to Semi system. The total cost of work using the Semi system as much as Rp. 4,837,286,252.27 While using formwork System (Table Form) as much as Rp. 3,724,594,795.77. This shows that work using the System (Table Form) is cheaper by Rp. 1,112,691,456.50 or around 23%.

scholarly journals Route Planning: B

2021 ◽  
pp. 259-269
Author(s):  
Jean Walrand
Keyword(s):  
Route Planning ◽  
The State ◽  
Control Problems ◽  
Linear Quadratic ◽  
Linear Quadratic Gaussian ◽  
Certainty Equivalence ◽  
Markov Decision Problems ◽  
Markov Decision ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Elegant Solution

AbstractThere is a class of control problems that admit a particularly elegant solution: the linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) problems. In these problems, the state dynamics and observations are linear, the cost is quadratic, and the noise is Gaussian. Section 14.1 explains the theory of LQG problems when one observes the state. Section 14.2 discusses the situation when the observations are noisy and shows the remarkable certainty equivalence property of the solution. Section 14.3 explains how noisy observations affect Markov decision problems.

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