The Value of Using Imprecise Probabilities in Engineering Design

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Matthew Aughenbaugh ◽  
Christiaan J. J. Paredis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Engineering Design ◽  
Pressure Vessel ◽  
Computational Experiment ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Imprecise Probabilities ◽  
Design Problems ◽  
Design Decisions ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Best Fit

Engineering design decisions inherently are made under uncertainty. In this paper, we consider imprecise probabilities (i.e. intervals of probabilities) to express explicitly the precision with which something is known. Imprecision can arise from fundamental indeterminacy in the available evidence or from incomplete characterizations of the available evidence and designer’s beliefs. Our hypothesis is that, in engineering design decisions, it is valuable to explicitly represent this imprecision by using imprecise probabilities. We support this hypothesis with a computational experiment in which a pressure vessel is designed using two approaches, both variations of utility-based decision making. In the first approach, the designer uses a purely probabilistic, precise best-fit normal distribution to represent uncertainty. In the second approach, the designer explicitly expresses the imprecision in the available information using a probability box, or p-box. When the imprecision is large, this p-box approach on average results in designs with expected utilities that are greater than those for designs created with the purely probabilistic approach. In the context of decision theory, this suggests that there are design problems for which it is valuable to use imprecise probabilities.

scholarly journals Marketing Based Decision Making Process in Engineering Design

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.36) ◽  
pp. 854
Author(s):  
K. Palani Raj ◽  
G. Veeramani
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Engineering Design ◽  
Design Process ◽  
Consumer Behaviour ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Design Decisions ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Important Study ◽  
Process Manufacturing

Marketing based decision making process in engineering design is an important study required for industries. How to take efficient decision in design that influence marketing? Most of the engineering design decisions are based on consumer behaviour. Decision making in risk and uncertainty in engineering design is an important phenomenon. Cost and time are the two important factors that results loss because of inefficient decision and it affects marketing. Problems involved in marketing based engineering design and decision making process in solving problems is elaborately studied in this journal. How to choose a design in various alternatives, design process, manufacturing feasibility, material and methodology are the important factors that influences decision making in engineering design for marketing. Different types of theories in decision making process that helps in taking proper decision were studied in this journal. This study is based on data taken from various Research & Development centre in Industries. 

Integrating Ethics into Engineering Education

2015 ◽  
pp. 159-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunfang Zhou ◽  
Kathrin Otrel-Cass ◽  
Tom Børsen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Engineering Education ◽  
Engineering Design ◽  
Learning Environments ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Design Problems ◽  
Engineering Design Problems ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Integrating Ethics ◽  
Engineering Practices

In this chapter, the authors aim to explore the necessity of teaching ethics as part of engineering education based on the gaps between learning “hard” knowledge and “soft” skills in the current educational system. They discuss why the nature of engineering practices makes it difficult to look beyond dealing with engineering design problems, identify the difference between knowledge and risk perceptions, and how to manage such tensions. They also explore the importance of developing moral responsibilities of engineers and the need to humanize technology and engineering, as technological products are not value neutral. With a focus on Problem-Based Learning (PBL), the authors examine why engineers need to incorporate ethical codes in their decision-making process and professional tasks. Finally, they discuss how to build creative learning environments that can support attaining the objectives of engineering education.

Data-driven design paradigm in engineering problems

2016 ◽  
Vol 231 (8) ◽  
pp. 1522-1534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changqing Liu ◽  
Xiaoqian Chen
Keyword(s):  
Engineering Design ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Decision Strategy ◽  
Design Problems ◽  
Design Decisions ◽  
Uncertainty Factors ◽  
Satellite Design ◽  
Engineering Design Problems ◽  
Engineering Problems ◽  
Design Paradigm

Engineering design problems can, in general, be discussed under the framework of decision making, namely engineering design decisions. Inherently, accounting for uncertainty factors is an indispensable part in these decision processes. In a sense, the goal of design decisions is to control or reduce the variational effect in decision consequences induced by many uncertainty factors, by optimizing an expected utility objective or other preference functions. In this paper, the value of data in facilitating making engineering design decisions is highlighted, and a data-driven design paradigm for practical engineering problems is proposed. The definition of data in this paradigm is elaborated first. Then the data involvement in a whole stage-based design process is investigated. An overall decision strategy for design problems under the data-driven paradigm is proposed. By a concrete satellite design example, the key ideas of the proposed data-driven design paradigm are demonstrated. Future work is also advised.

Flaws Lurking in Engineering Design-Decision Making: The Attribute Set Dissociation Problem

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijitashwa Pandey
Keyword(s):  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Engineering Design ◽  
Fundamental Problem ◽  
Design Decision ◽  
Design Problems ◽  
Design Decisions ◽  
Root Cause ◽  
Multiple Attributes ◽  
Lower Limits ◽  
Specific Definition

The applicability of theoretical decision analysis, while rationally sound, has eluded mainstream engineering design. A reason commonly overlooked is that basic concepts in decision analysis do not scale naturally to multiple attributes — which are encountered in, by far, most design problems. In this paper, we document a paradox when dealing with transactions involving multiple attributes. We show the possibility of a money pump where if we dissociate part of an attribute from a design, the rest of the design can be manipulated to get either a better design or create wealth out of nothing. To reconcile with paradox, it is argued that there is a fundamental problem dealing with multiple attributes where a frame of reference chosen (purposefully) ignores external inputs, assuming that design decisions happen in the vacuum of the frame chosen. For example, in a simple design valuation decision, the money amount committed does not necessarily come from a fixed range of negotiability (upper and lower limits) but is subject to change if significant changes in other attributes are possible. The root cause of this issue is that fungible attributes such as money can form a part of the attribute set or be trivially dissociated from it, if needed. We argue that this is rational behavior on a decision maker’s part. However, most utility formulations do not model it and lead to the paradox. We call this the attribute dissociation problem. A specific definition is provided as well as implications on design as well as preference elicitation methods are considered. Finally, formulations are presented that avoid this problem and recommendations are provided.

Decision Making in Engineering Design Tasks: Do Designers Benefit from Representations of Uncertainty?

2007 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 372-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Akhavi ◽  
C. C. Hayes
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Engineering Design ◽  
Design Decisions ◽  
Design Processes ◽  
Rank Ordering ◽  
Design Alternatives ◽  
Decision Methods ◽  
Uncertainty In Design ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Theoretical Standpoint

Engineering design tasks require designers to compare, weigh and choose between many complex alternatives throughout the design processes. The uncertainty in design decisions and the high cost of poor choices has long made decision methods incorporating representations of uncertainty appealing from a theoretical standpoint. Yet, such methods have not been widely adopted in practical settings. This paper describes a study exploring reasons why this is so. The study found that in task of rank ordering a set of design alternatives from best to worst, a decision making method which incorporated a representation of uncertainty produced no better performance than a deterministic one. However, when compared to the informal methods typically followed by designers for rank ordering alternatives, both methods resulted in more consistent rankings for expert designers, but required more time. We will discuss the practical implications these findings may have for use of these methods in practice.

Entropic Method for Sequencing Discrete Design Decisions

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiradeep Sen ◽  
Farhad Ameri ◽  
Joshua D. Summers
Keyword(s):  
Engineering Design ◽  
Design Process ◽  
Design Solution ◽  
Design Problems ◽  
Design Decisions ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Task Sequencing ◽  
Design Variables ◽  
Engineering Design Problems ◽  
Measure Of Uncertainty

Early stages of engineering design processes are characterized by high levels of uncertainty due to incomplete knowledge. As the design progresses, additional information is externally added or internally generated within the design process. As a result, the design solution becomes increasingly well-defined and the uncertainty of the problem reduces, diminishing to zero at the end of the process when the design is fully defined. In this research a measure of uncertainty is proposed for a class of engineering design problems called discrete design problems. Previously, three components of complexity in engineering design, namely, size, coupling and solvability, were identified. In this research uncertainty is measured in terms of the number of design variables (size) and the dependency between the variables (coupling). The solvability of each variable is assumed to be uniform for the sake of simplicity. The dependency between two variables is measured as the effect of a decision made on one variable on the solution options available to the other variable. A measure of uncertainty is developed based on this premise, and applied to an example problem to monitor uncertainty reduction through the design process. Results are used to identify and compare three task-sequencing strategies in engineering design.

Robust optimization based on a polynomial expansion of chaos constructed with integration point rules

2008 ◽  
Vol 223 (5) ◽  
pp. 1263-1272 ◽  
Author(s):  
D L Wei ◽  
Z S Cui ◽  
J Chen
Keyword(s):  
Robust Optimization ◽  
Engineering Design ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Main Idea ◽  
Optimization Procedure ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Design Problems ◽  
Engineering Design Problems

Robust optimization is a probabilistic approach to engineering design under uncertainty. The main idea is to select designs insensitive to changes in given parameters. Robust optimization using numerical simulations for black-box problems has received increasing interest. However, when the simulation programmes are computationally expensive, robust optimization is difficult to implement due to the intensive computational demand of uncertainty propagation. Based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), an efficient robust optimization method is presented. The PCE is constructed with points of monomial cubature rules (MCRs) to approximate the original model. As the number of points of MCRs is small and all of the points are sampled, the robust optimization procedure is computationally efficient and stable. Two engineering design problems are employed to demonstrate the availability of the proposed method.

scholarly journals Business Ethics Decision-Making: Examining Partial Reflective Awareness

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2635
Author(s):  
Marli Gonan Božac ◽  
Katarina Kostelić ◽  
Morena Paulišić ◽  
Charles G. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Business Ethics ◽  
Ethical Decision Making ◽  
Field Research ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Ethical Business ◽  
Reflective Awareness ◽  
Ethical Choices ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Context Characteristics

The aim of this research was to examine partial reflective awareness in ethical business choices in Croatia. The ethical decision-making is interlinked with sustainable practices, but it is also its prerequisite. Thus, better understanding of business ethics decision-making provides a basis for designing and implementing sustainability in a corporate setting. The research was done on student populations who will soon carry important roles and make important decisions for individuals, organizations, and society. The field research was conducted using Kohlberg’s scenarios. The results reveal that the process of decision-making goes through the lenses of respondents’ own preferred ethics. However, the reflective awareness of respondents’ preferred ethics is skewed and regularities in that deviations point out to the relevance of the context characteristics and arousal factors. In addition, the individuals do not use all available information in the assessment process. The revealed partial reflective awareness contributes to explanation of why people have problems with justifying their choices. As there are many examples of unethical behavior in the environment that remain unpunished, it is necessary to raise awareness of the issue. Improvement in reflective awareness would contribute to more sustainable ethical choices and reveal a possibility of an intervention design within the higher education framework.

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