Fracture Pressure Prediction Using Surface Drilling Parameters by Artificial Intelligence Techniques

2020 ◽  
Vol 143 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulmalek Ahmed ◽  
Salaheldin Elkatatny ◽  
Abdulwahab Ali
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Fracture Pressure ◽  
Drilling Parameters ◽  
Drilling Operations

Abstract Several correlations are available to determine the fracture pressure, a vital property of a well, which is essential in the design of the drilling operations and preventing problems. Some of these correlations are based on the rock and formation characteristics, and others are based on log data. In this study, five artificial intelligence (AI) techniques predicting fracture pressure were developed and compared with the existing empirical correlations to select the optimal model. Real-time data of surface drilling parameters from one well were obtained using real-time drilling sensors. The five employed methods of AI are functional networks (FN), artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), radial basis function (RBF), and fuzzy logic (FL). More than 3990 datasets were used to build the five AI models by dividing the data into training and testing sets. A comparison between the results of the five AI techniques and the empirical fracture correlations, such as the Eaton model, Matthews and Kelly model, and Pennebaker model, was also performed. The results reveal that AI techniques outperform the three fracture pressure correlations based on their high accuracy, represented by the low average absolute percentage error (AAPE) and a high coefficient of determination (R2). Compared with empirical models, the AI techniques have the advantage of requiring less data, only surface drilling parameters, which can be conveniently obtained from any well. Additionally, a new fracture pressure correlation was developed based on ANN, which predicts the fracture pressure with high precision (R2 = 0.99 and AAPE = 0.094%).

Improving Real-Time Drilling Data Quality Using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Techniques

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. H. Al Gharbi ◽  
A. A. Al-Majed ◽  
A. Abdulraheem ◽  
S. Patil ◽  
S. M. Elkatatny
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Data Quality ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
The Real ◽  
Drilling Data ◽  
Drilling Operations

Abstract Due to high demand for energy, oil and gas companies started to drill wells in remote areas and unconventional environments. This raised the complexity of drilling operations, which were already challenging and complex. To adapt, drilling companies expanded their use of the real-time operation center (RTOC) concept, in which real-time drilling data are transmitted from remote sites to companies’ headquarters. In RTOC, groups of subject matter experts monitor the drilling live and provide real-time advice to improve operations. With the increase of drilling operations, processing the volume of generated data is beyond a human's capability, limiting the RTOC impact on certain components of drilling operations. To overcome this limitation, artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) technologies were introduced to monitor and analyze the real-time drilling data, discover hidden patterns, and provide fast decision-support responses. AI/ML technologies are data-driven technologies, and their quality relies on the quality of the input data: if the quality of the input data is good, the generated output will be good; if not, the generated output will be bad. Unfortunately, due to the harsh environments of drilling sites and the transmission setups, not all of the drilling data is good, which negatively affects the AI/ML results. The objective of this paper is to utilize AI/ML technologies to improve the quality of real-time drilling data. The paper fed a large real-time drilling dataset, consisting of over 150,000 raw data points, into Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Decision Tree (DT) models. The models were trained on the valid and not-valid datapoints. The confusion matrix was used to evaluate the different AI/ML models including different internal architectures. Despite the slowness of ANN, it achieved the best result with an accuracy of 78%, compared to 73% and 41% for DT and SVM, respectively. The paper concludes by presenting a process for using AI technology to improve real-time drilling data quality. To the author's knowledge based on literature in the public domain, this paper is one of the first to compare the use of multiple AI/ML techniques for quality improvement of real-time drilling data. The paper provides a guide for improving the quality of real-time drilling data.

Comparative Evaluation of Artificial Intelligence Models for Drilling Rate of Penetration Prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ololade Adetifa ◽  
Ibiye Iyalla ◽  
Kingsley Amadi
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Artificial Intelligent ◽  
Rate Of Penetration ◽  
Drilling Data ◽  
Intelligent Models ◽  
Prediction Capability

Abstract Rate of penetration is an important parameter in drilling performance analysis. The accurate prediction of rate of penetration during well planning leads to a reduction in capital and operating costs which is vital given the recent downturn in oil prices. The industry is seen to embrace the use of novel technologies and artificial intelligence in its bid to be sustainable which is why this study focuses on the use of artificial intelligent models in predicting the rate of penetration. The predictive performance of three data-driven models [artificial neural network (ANN), extreme learning machine (ELM) and least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM)] were evaluated using actual drilling data based on three performance evaluation criteria [mean square error (MSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and average absolute percentage error (AAPE)]. The models were validated using the physics based Bourgoyne and Young's model. The results show that all three models performed to an acceptable level of accuracy based on the range of the actual drilling data because, although the ELM had the least MSE (1317.44) and the highest R2 (0.52 i.e. 52% prediction capability) the LS-SVM model had a smaller spread of predicted ROP when compared with the actual ROP and the ANN had the least AAPE (38.14). The results can be improved upon by optimizing the controllable predictors. Validation of the model's performance with the Bourgoyne and Young's model resulted in R2 of 0.29 or 29% prediction capability confirming that artificial intelligent models outperformed the physics-based model.

scholarly journals Real-Time Prediction of Rate of Penetration in S-Shape Well Profile Using Artificial Intelligence Models

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 3506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salaheldin Elkatatny
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Empirical Correlations ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Rate Of Penetration ◽  
Drilling Parameters ◽  
Svm Model ◽  
Data Points

Rate of penetration (ROP) is defined as the amount of removed rock per unit area per unit time. It is affected by several factors which are inseparable. Current established models for determining the ROP include the basic mathematical and physics equations, as well as the use of empirical correlations. Given the complexity of the drilling process, the use of artificial intelligence (AI) has been a game changer because most of the unknown parameters can now be accounted for entirely at the modeling process. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the ability of the optimized adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), functional neural networks (FN), random forests (RF), and support vector machine (SVM) models to predict the ROP in real time from the drilling parameters in the S-shape well profile, for the first time, based on the drilling parameters of weight on bit (WOB), drillstring rotation (DSR), torque (T), pumping rate (GPM), and standpipe pressure (SPP). Data from two wells were used for training and testing (Well A and Well B with 4012 and 1717 data points, respectively), and one well for validation (Well C) with 2500 data points. Well A and Well B data were combined in the training-testing phase and were randomly divided into a 70:30 ratio for training/testing. The results showed that the ANFIS, FN, and RF models could effectively predict the ROP from the drilling parameters in the S-shape well profile, while the accuracy of the SVM model was very low. The ANFIS, FN, and RF models predicted the ROP for the training data with average absolute percentage errors (AAPEs) of 9.50%, 13.44%, and 3.25%, respectively. For the testing data, the ANFIS, FN, and RF models predicted the ROP with AAPEs of 9.57%, 11.20%, and 8.37%, respectively. The ANFIS, FN, and RF models overperformed the available empirical correlations for ROP prediction. The ANFIS model estimated the ROP for the validation data with an AAPE of 9.06%, whereas the FN model predicted the ROP with an AAPE of 10.48%, and the RF model predicted the ROP with an AAPE of 10.43%. The SVM model predicted the ROP for the validation data with a very high AAPE of 30.05% and all empirical correlations predicted the ROP with AAPEs greater than 25%.

Application of Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Estimate the Static Poisson's Ratio Based on Wireline Log Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 140 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Salaheldin Elkatatny
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Poisson’S Ratio ◽  
Carbonate Reservoirs ◽  
Poisson's Ratio ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Cement Slurry ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Log Data

Static Poisson's ratio (νstatic) is a key factor in determine the in-situ stresses in the reservoir section. νstatic is used to calculate the minimum horizontal stress which will affect the design of the optimum mud widow and the density of cement slurry while drilling. In addition, it also affects the design of the casing setting depth. νstatic is very important for field development and the incorrect estimation of it may lead to heavy investment decisions. νstatic can be measured in the lab using a real reservoir cores. The laboratory measurements of νstatic will take long time and also will increase the overall cost. The goal of this study is to develop accurate models for predicting νstatic for carbonate reservoirs based on wireline log data using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. More than 610 core and log data points from carbonate reservoirs were used to train and validate the AI models. The more accurate AI model will be used to generate a new correlation for calculating the νstatic. The developed artificial neural network (ANN) model yielded more accurate results for estimating νstatic based on log data; sonic travel times and bulk density compared to adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and support vector machine (SVM) methods. The developed empirical equation for νstatic gave a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.97 and an average absolute percentage error (AAPE) of 1.13%. The developed technique will help geomechanical engineers to estimate a complete trend of νstatic without the need for coring and laboratory work and hence will reduce the overall cost of the well.

Hybrid artificial intelligence-based inference models for accurately predicting dam body displacements: A case study of the Fei Tsui dam

2021 ◽  
pp. 147592172110441
Author(s):  
Min-Yuan Cheng ◽  
Minh-Tu Cao ◽  
I-Feng Huang
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Operation Condition ◽  
Inference Models

Surveillance is a critical activity in monitoring the operation condition and safety of dams. This study reviewed the historical monitoring data of the Fei Tsui dam to determine possible influential factors for the dam body displacement and then evaluated the influencing degree of these factors by using correlation analysis. Thus, the key influential factors were identified objectively and further chosen as the input variables for numerous artificial intelligence (AI)-based inference models, including single machine learning techniques (support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural networks) and hybrid AI models. The models were trained and tested with 4722 real data retrieved in 11 years from the monitoring devices installed on elements of the dam, and then generated their respective inferred dam body displacement values. The results revealed that the adaptive time-dependent evolutionary least squares SVM model had the greatest performance by providing the lowest values of prediction errors in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE = 8.14%), root mean square error (RMSE = 1.08 cm), and coefficient of determination (R = 0.993). The analysis results endorsed that the hybrid AI model could be an efficient tool to early produce accurate warnings of the dam displacements.

scholarly journals New Artificial Neural Networks Model for Predicting Rate of Penetration in Deep Shale Formation

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 6527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed ◽  
Ali ◽  
Elkatatny ◽  
Abdulraheem
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Real Field ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Individual Parameter ◽  
Rate Of Penetration ◽  
Drilling Parameters ◽  
Drilling Operations ◽  
Shale Formation ◽  
Artificial Neural

Rate of penetration (ROP) means how fast the drilling bit is drilling through the formations. It is known that in the petroleum industry, most of the well cost is taken by the drilling operations. Therefore, it is very crucial to drill carefully and improve drilling processes. Nevertheless, it is challenging to predict the influence of every single parameter because most of the drilling parameters depend on each other and altering an individual parameter will have an impact on the rest. Due to the complexity of the drilling operations, up to the present time, there is no reliable model that can adequately estimate the ROP. Artificial intelligence (AI) might be capable of building a predictive model from a number of input parameters that correlate to the output parameter. A real field dataset, of shale formation, that contains records of both drilling parameters such as, rotation per minute (RPM), weight on bit (WOB), drilling torque (τ), standpipe pressure (SPP) and flow pump (Q) and mud properties such as, mud weight (MW), funnel and plastic viscosities (FV) (PV), solid (%) and yield point (YP) were used to predict ROP using artificial neural network (ANN). A comparison between the developed ANN-ROP model and the number of selected published ROP models were performed. A novel empirical equation of ROP using the above-mentioned parameters was derived based on ANN technique which is able to estimate ROP with excellent precision (correlation coefficient (R) of 0.996 and average absolute percentage error (AAPE) of 5.776%). The novel ANN-based correlation outperformed three published empirical models and it can be used to predict the ROP without the need for artificial intelligence software.

scholarly journals New Computational Artificial Intelligence Models for Generating Synthetic Formation Bulk Density Logs While Drilling

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 686 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Gowida ◽  
Salaheldin Elkatatny ◽  
Saad Al-Afnan ◽  
Abdulazeez Abdulraheem
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Bulk Density ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Drilling Process ◽  
Predictive Tool ◽  
Robust Solution ◽  
Drilling Parameters ◽  
Unseen Data ◽  
Artificial Intelligence Models

Synthetic well log generation using artificial intelligence tools is a robust solution for situations in which logging data are not available or are partially lost. Formation bulk density (RHOB) logging data greatly assist in identifying downhole formations. These data are measured in the field while drilling by using a density log tool in the form of either a logging while drilling (LWD) technique or (more often) by wireline logging after the formations are drilled. This is due to operational limitations during the drilling process. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a predictive tool for estimating RHOB while drilling using an adaptive network-based fuzzy interference system (ANFIS), functional network (FN), and support vector machine (SVM). The proposed model uses the mechanical drilling constraints as feeding input parameters, and the conventional RHOB log data as an output parameter. These mechanical drilling parameters are usually measured while drilling, and their responses vary with different formations. A dataset of 2400 actual datapoints, obtained from a horizontal well in the Middle East, were used to build the proposed models. The obtained dataset was divided into a 70/30 ratio for model training and testing, respectively. The optimized ANFIS-based model outperformed the FN- and SVM-based models with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.93, and average absolute percentage error (AAPE) of 0.81% between the predicted and measured RHOB values. These results demonstrate the reliability of the developed ANFIS model for predicting RHOB while drilling, based on the mechanical drilling parameters. Subsequently, the ANFIS-based model was validated using unseen data from another well within the same field. The validation process yielded an AAPE of 0.97% between the predicted and actual RHOB values, which confirmed the robustness of the developed model as an effective predictive tool for RHOB.

scholarly journals Predicting Ink Transfer Rate of 3D Additive Printing Using EGBO Optimized Least Squares Support Vector Machine Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Shengpu Li ◽  
Yize Sun
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Transfer Rate ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Experimental Sample ◽  
Machine Model ◽  
Ink Transfer

Ink transfer rate (ITR) is a reference index to measure the quality of 3D additive printing. In this study, an ink transfer rate prediction model is proposed by applying the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). In addition, enhanced garden balsam optimization (EGBO) is used for selection and optimization of hyperparameters that are embedded in the LSSVM model. 102 sets of experimental sample data have been collected from the production line to train and test the hybrid prediction model. Experimental results show that the coefficient of determination (R2) for the introduced model is equal to 0.8476, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is 6.6 × 10 (−3), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 1.6502 × 10 (−3) for the ink transfer rate of 3D additive printing.

scholarly journals Machine Learning for Sensorless Temperature Estimation of a BLDC Motor

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (14) ◽  
pp. 4655
Author(s):  
Dariusz Czerwinski ◽  
Jakub Gęca ◽  
Krzysztof Kolano
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Temperature Measurement ◽  
Stochastic Gradient Descent ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Bldc Motor ◽  
Temperature Estimation ◽  
Motor Operation

In this article, the authors propose two models for BLDC motor winding temperature estimation using machine learning methods. For the purposes of the research, measurements were made for over 160 h of motor operation, and then, they were preprocessed. The algorithms of linear regression, ElasticNet, stochastic gradient descent regressor, support vector machines, decision trees, and AdaBoost were used for predictive modeling. The ability of the models to generalize was achieved by hyperparameter tuning with the use of cross-validation. The conducted research led to promising results of the winding temperature estimation accuracy. In the case of sensorless temperature prediction (model 1), the mean absolute percentage error MAPE was below 4.5% and the coefficient of determination R2 was above 0.909. In addition, the extension of the model with the temperature measurement on the casing (model 2) allowed reducing the error value to about 1% and increasing R2 to 0.990. The results obtained for the first proposed model show that the overheating protection of the motor can be ensured without direct temperature measurement. In addition, the introduction of a simple casing temperature measurement system allows for an estimation with accuracy suitable for compensating the motor output torque changes related to temperature.

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