scholarly journals An Approach to Uncertainty Identification in the Valuation of Transactive Energy Systems

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arun Veeramany ◽  
James T. Woodward ◽  
Donald J. Hammerstrom
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Energy Systems ◽  
Uncertainty Assessment ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Assessment And Treatment ◽  
Transactive Energy ◽  
Grid Interoperability

Valuation of transactive energy (TE) systems should be supported by a structured and systematic approach to uncertainty identification, assessment, and treatment in the interest of risk-informed decision making. The proposed approach, a variation of fault tree analysis, is anticipated to support valuation analysts in analyzing conventional and transactive system scenarios. This approach allows for expanding the entire tree up to the level of minute details or collapsing them to a level sufficient enough to get an overview of the problem. Quantification scheme for the described approach lends itself for valuation. The method complements value exchange analysis, simulation, and field demonstration studies. The practicality of the proposed approach is demonstrated through uncertainty assessment of the smart grid interoperability panel peak heat day scenario.

scholarly journals From research to evidence-informed decision making: a systematic approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (suppl_1) ◽  
pp. i3-i12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotte C Poot ◽  
Rianne M van der Kleij ◽  
Evelyn A Brakema ◽  
Debbie Vermond ◽  
Siân Williams ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Informed Decision Making

Technical hazard identification in water treatment using fault tree analysis

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (6) ◽  
pp. 897-906 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Beauchamp ◽  
Barbara J. Lence ◽  
Christian Bouchard
Keyword(s):  
Water Treatment ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Treatment Plant ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Water Treatment Plant ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Operational Level ◽  
Filtration Step

In this qualitative paper, a method for technical and operational hazard identification of a water treatment plant is described. Here, fault tree analysis is applied to a physicochemical ultrafiltration (UF) membrane train, with the objectives of developing a systematic approach for organizing and improving our understanding of the hazards at the treatment plant operational level that affect the risk of infection from the pathogen Cryptosporidium parvum. The approach was successful in identifying many technical and operational hazards. The fault tree shows that water treatment plant operation is a complex task where many factors must be taken into account. Regarding the removal of C. parvum oocysts, most initiating events relate to the filtration step in the UF system. In the future, quantification of the probability of fault events may help to prioritize interventions at the operational level.

scholarly journals Emergency Optimization Decision-Making with Incomplete Probabilistic Information under the Background of COVID-19

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Ming Fu ◽  
Lifang Wang ◽  
Jiaming Zhu ◽  
Bingyun Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Missing Values ◽  
Preference Relation ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Information Aggregation ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Comparison Results

At present, the whole world is facing the serious challenge of COVID-19, and it has reached a consensus that taking appropriate measures timely is the key to prevent and control infectious diseases. This paper proposes an algorithm to solve the problem of how to choose the most appropriate alternative from numerous alternatives in the limited time from the perspective of management. First of all, we have compared various data structures for keeping the comparison results of alternatives. After comparisons, we adopt the hesitant fuzzy incomplete probabilistic linguistic preference relation matrix to save the information which can keep the first-hand valuable collected data to the maximum extent; then, we can obtain the missing values with the help of the fault tree analysis method, which can consider both subjective evaluation data and objective historical data simultaneously. Meanwhile, the fault tree analysis method can find development laws with the help of similar infectious diseases that have occurred in the past. The definition of consistency index is also introduced which can measure whether there are contradictions and the degree of contradiction in the decision results. Only those data that meet the consistency requirements can be used for decision-making and then a method is proposed to effectively reduce the degree of inconsistency. The information aggregation method will be adopted subsequently, and we can obtain the ranking of alternatives. An instance with specific execution steps is also introduced to illustrate the feasibility and efficiency of the algorithm proposed in this paper; in the end, several types of comparisons with typical algorithms proposed by other scholars are carried out, and all the experimental results show that the algorithm proposed in this paper is effective and innovative in some aspects.

Computerized Systematic Approach to Fault Tree Analysis Based on Quantity Dimension Indexing

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamotsu Murakami ◽  
Toshiyuki Ishii
Keyword(s):  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Software Tool ◽  
Previous Method ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Literal Expression ◽  
Physical Phenomena

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an effective method of ensuring the security and safety of the product by identifying all the possible causes of the problem and fixing them. However, it is not easy for a designer to construct a complete fault tree about various physical phenomena without any misunderstanding or oversight, and some computerized method of managing (i.e., storing, searching and utilizing) knowledge about FTA is needed. To solve the problem, the authors have proposed and studied a method and software tool for knowledge management of FTA based on quantity dimension indexing as a design knowledge management method to avoid ambiguity of literal expression about physical phenomena. In the previous method and software, however, fault values of quantities were limited as just above- and below-normal, and dynamic phenomena such as oscillation could not be described. In this paper, the authors introduce a systematically classified definition of fault values as above/below normal, one-side/both-sides, constant/varying, monotonic/non-monotonic and sudden/gradual, and expand the computerized systematic approach to FTA. Feasibility of the method was examined by applying it to fault tree examples made in a company.

Decision Making for Safety Assessment of Mobile Mooring System

2013 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvianita S. ◽  
Mohd Faris Khamidi ◽  
V. J. Kurian
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Inductive Method ◽  
Mooring System ◽  
Offshore Platforms ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Floating Structures

Floating structures use mooring system for station keeping in any water depths. Mooring system is a vital component for the safety of floating structures. Mooring accidents can cause serious injury or damage to the vessel, and hence it is necessary to establish a systematic risk–based decision making for safety assessment of mobile mooring system. This study uses the mobile mooring system of a semi submersible pipe laying barge as a case study. The aim of this study is to develop a Methodology for Investigation of Critical Hazards (MIVTA), which is carried out by the development of preliminary risk analysis using HAZOP (Hazard and Operability), to generate the root causes using FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) and to construct the sequence of the consequences using ETA (Event Tree Analysis). HAZOP is a systematic examination of a system helpful to identify and evaluate the risks related to accidents/incidents in mooring system. FTA is a deductive method useful to generate the potential causes of mooring system failure into undesired events. ETA is an inductive method helpful to define all possible outcomes of accidental events. This study conducts risk-based decision making coupled with the knowledge of the experts of mooring system to identify the root causes, to evaluate the frequency of failure and to classify their class of consequences. This study provides a systematic methodology guideline for the risk–based decision making useful to identify the risk of accidents occurring in offshore platforms.

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