scholarly journals Technology Evolution Prediction Using Lotka–Volterra Equations

2018 ◽  
Vol 140 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guanglu Zhang ◽  
Daniel A. McAdams ◽  
Venkatesh Shankar ◽  
Milad Mohammadi Darani
Keyword(s):  
Development Planning ◽  
Component Technology ◽  
Volterra Model ◽  
Volterra Equations ◽  
System Technology ◽  
Product System ◽  
Performance Impact ◽  
Technology Evolution ◽  
S Curve

During the development planning of a new product, designers and entrepreneurs rely on the prediction of product performance to make business investment and design strategy decisions. Moore's law and the logistic S-curve model help make such predictions but suffer several drawbacks. In this paper, Lotka–Volterra equations are used to describe the interaction between a product (system technology) and the components and elements (component technologies) that are combined to form the product. The equations are simplified by a relationship table and maturation evaluation in a two-step process. The performance data of the system and its components over time are modeled by simplified Lotka–Volterra equations. The methods developed here allow designers, entrepreneurs, and policy makers to predict the performances of a product and its components quantitatively using the simplified Lotka–Volterra equations. The methods also shed light on the extent of performance impact from a specific module (component technology) on a product (system technology), which is valuable for identifying the key features of a product and for making outsourcing decisions. Smartphones are used as an example to demonstrate the two-step simplification process. The Lotka–Volterra model of technology evolution is validated by a case study of passenger airplanes and turbofan aero-engines. The case study shows that the data fitting and predictive performances of Lotka–Volterra equations exceed those of extant models.

Product Performance Evolution Prediction by Lotka-Volterra Equations

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guanglu Zhang ◽  
Daniel A. McAdams ◽  
Milad Mohammadi Darani ◽  
Venkatesh Shankar
Keyword(s):  
Time History ◽  
Evaluation Process ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Performance Data ◽  
Product Performance ◽  
Volterra Equations ◽  
Performance Impact ◽  
Frame Design ◽  
Curve Model ◽  
S Curve

During the development planning of a new product, designers rely on the prediction of the product performance to make business investments and frame design strategy. The S-curve model is commonly used for this purpose, but it has several drawbacks. A significant volume of product performance data doesn’t fit well with an S-curve. An S-curve model is also not capable of showing what factors shape the future performance of a product and how designers can change it. In this paper, Lotka-Volterra equations, which subsume both the logistic S-curve model and Moore’s Law, are used to describe the interaction between a product (system technology) and the components and elements (component technologies) that are combined to form the product. The equations are simplified by a relationship table and a maturation evaluation process as a two-step simplification. The historical performance data of the system and its components are fitted by the simplified Lotka-Volterra equations. The methods developed here allow designers to predict the performances of a product and its components quantitatively by the simplified Lotka-Volterra equations. The methods also shed light on the extent of performance impact from a specific module on a product, which is valuable for identifying the key features of a product and thus making outsourcing decisions. Smart phones are used as an example to demonstrate the two-step simplification. The data fitting method is validated by the time history performance data of airliners and turbofan aero-engines.

Generating Technology Evolution Prediction Intervals With Bootstrap Method

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guanglu Zhang ◽  
Douglas Allaire ◽  
Daniel A. McAdams ◽  
Venkatesh Shankar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Bootstrap Method ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Prediction Intervals ◽  
Data Uncertainty ◽  
Processing Unit ◽  
Holdout Sample ◽  
Technology Evolution ◽  
Central Processing

Technology evolution prediction, or technological forecasting, is critical for designers to make important decisions during product development planning such as R&D investment and outsourcing. In practice, designers want to supplement point forecast by prediction intervals to assess future uncertainty and make contingency plans. Available technology evolution data is a time series but is generally with non-uniform spacing. Existing methods associated with typical time series models assume uniformly spaced data, so these methods cannot be used to construct prediction intervals for technology evolution prediction. In this paper, we develop a generic method that use bootstrapping to generate prediction intervals for technology evolution. The method we develop can be applied to any technology evolution prediction model. We consider parameter uncertainty and data uncertainty and establish their empirical probability distributions. We determine an appropriate confidence level α to generate prediction intervals through a holdout sample analysis rather than set α = 0.05 as is typically done in the literature. We validate our method to generate the prediction intervals through a case study of central processing unit transistor count evolution. The case study shows that the prediction intervals generated by our method cover every actual data point in a holdout sample test. To apply our method in practice, we outline four steps for designers to generate prediction intervals for technology evolution prediction.

Technology Evolution Assessment for the Future

2010 ◽  
pp. 234-246
Author(s):  
Supriya Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Evolution Process ◽  
System Technology ◽  
Key Technology ◽  
Technology Evolution ◽  
The Road ◽  
Trade Study ◽  
On The Road ◽  
Study Process ◽  
Technology Forecast

This next chapter addresses assessment describes the technology evolution process that involves government and corporate firms to perform technology validation and evolution planning. We go ahead and assess key technology areas, and provide a system technology forecast that can be used by a representative organization on the road to net-centric readiness. We then mention the acquisition trade study process and provide an understanding as to how vendor products can be assessed in an objective and documented manner. We end the chapter by providing a case study and information on the Net-Centric Operations Industry Consortium (NCOIC).

scholarly journals The Ecological Footprint Accounting of Products: When Larger Is Not Worse

Resources ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicoletta Patrizi ◽  
Valentina Niccolucci ◽  
Riccardo Pulselli ◽  
Elena Neri ◽  
Simone Bastianoni
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Ecological Footprint ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Product System ◽  
Sustainability Evaluation ◽  
Competitive Systems ◽  
The Status ◽  
Resource Accounting ◽  
Selection Of

One of the main goals of any (sustainability) indicator should be the communication of a clear, unambiguous, and simplified message about the status of the analyzed system. The selected indicator is expected to declare explicitly how its numerical value depicts a situation, for example, positive or negative, sustainable or unsustainable, especially when a comparison among similar or competitive systems is performed. This aspect should be a primary and discriminating issue when the selection of a set of opportune indicators is operated. The Ecological Footprint (EF) has become one of the most popular and widely used sustainability indicators. It is a resource accounting method with an area based metric in which the units of measure are global hectares or hectares with world average bio-productivity. Its main goal is to underline the link between the (un)sustainability level of a product, a system, an activity or a population life style, with the land demand for providing goods, energy, and ecological services needed to sustain that product, system, activity, or population. Therefore, the traditional rationale behind the message of EF is: the larger EF value, the larger environmental impact in terms of resources use, the lower position in the sustainability rank. The aim of this paper was to investigate if this rationale is everywhere opportune and unambiguous, or if sometimes its use requires paying a special attention. Then, a three-dimensional modification of the classical EF framework for the sustainability evaluation of a product has been proposed following a previous work by Niccolucci and co-authors (2009). Finally, the potentialities of the model have been tested by using a case study from the agricultural context.

scholarly journals Budaya Mamfatin Ukunrai Sebagai Paradoks Partisipasi Masyarakat Dalam Perencanaan Pembangunan Desa

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-127
Author(s):  
Donna Isra Silaban ◽  
Imelda Nahak
Keyword(s):  
Community Participation ◽  
Qualitative Case Study ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Cultural Factor ◽  
Development Communication ◽  
Development Programs ◽  
The Government

This study aims to examine development communication in community participation in village development planning. Community participation is very important because it can guarantee the effectiveness of development programs. There are a number of obstacles to community participation in development planning. Some identified barriers are the absence of legal support (Rumensten, 2012), lack of public awareness, low quality of human resources, length of stay and hours employment type (Wijaksono, 2013), lack of socialization from the government (Sagita, 2016), poverty and limited access provided by the government (Ompusunggu, 2017), and interest of bureaucracy in planning (Mbeche, 2017). These studies, indeed, have not considered yet cultural factor leading to disinvolvement. This qualitative case study extends previous studies by revealing the culture of mamfatin ukunrai discouraging community participation in development planning in Naran Village (pseudonym), Raimanuk Subdistrict, Belu Regency. Mamfatin ukunrai is a custom considering development planning is government's duties and responsibilities. Villagers are merely the executor of development programs. This custom is a legacy of royal government system and dominates the mindset of villagers. The tradition of highly appreciating the government unwittingly creates an invisible distance between government and society. It has discouraged villagers’ participation.

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