An Offshore Risk Analysis Method Using Fuzzy Bayesian Network

2009 ◽  
Vol 131 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Ren ◽  
I. Jenkinson ◽  
J. Wang ◽  
D. L. Xu ◽  
J. B. Yang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Dynamic Environment ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Human Errors ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
Offshore Engineering ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
High Level ◽  
System Variables

The operation of an offshore installation is associated with a high level of uncertainty because it usually operates in a dynamic environment in which technical and human and organizational malfunctions may cause possible accidents. This paper proposes a fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) approach to model causal relationships among risk factors, which may cause possible accidents in offshore operations. The FBN model explicitly represents cause-and-effect assumptions between offshore engineering system variables that may be obscured under other modeling approaches like fuzzy reasoning and Monte Carlo risk analysis. The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships, including formally assessed expert opinions when quantitative data are lacking in early design stages with a high level of innovation or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made. The model is also a modular representation of uncertain knowledge due to randomness and vagueness. This makes the risk and safety analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts. A case study of the collision risk between a floating production, storage and offloading unit and the authorized vessels due to human errors during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

A Markovian-Bayesian Network for Risk Analysis of High Speed and Conventional Railway Lines Integrating Human Errors

2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrique Castillo ◽  
Aida Calviño ◽  
Zacarías Grande ◽  
Santos Sánchez-Cambronero ◽  
Inmaculada Gallego ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Human Errors

scholarly journals Gesture commands for controlling high-level UAV behavior

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
John Akagi ◽  
T. Devon Morris ◽  
Brady Moon ◽  
Xingguang Chen ◽  
Cameron K. Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Dynamic Environment ◽  
List Type ◽  
Hardware In The Loop ◽  
Monte Carlo Tree Search ◽  
Natural Interface ◽  
Constrained Environments ◽  
Novel Variant ◽  
High Level ◽  
Tree Search Algorithm

Abstract Directing groups of unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) is a task that typically requires the full attention of several operators. This can be prohibitive in situations where an operator must pay attention to their surroundings. In this paper we present a gesture device that assists operators in commanding UAVs in focus-constrained environments. The operator influences the UAVs’ behavior by using intuitive hand gesture movements. Gestures are captured using an accelerometer and gyroscope and then classified using a logistic regression model. Ten gestures were chosen to provide behaviors for a group of fixed-wing UAVs. These behaviors specified various searching, following, and tracking patterns that could be used in a dynamic environment. A novel variant of the Monte Carlo Tree Search algorithm was developed to autonomously plan the paths of the cooperating UAVs. These autonomy algorithms were executed when their corresponding gesture was recognized by the gesture device. The gesture device was trained to classify the ten gestures and accurately identified them 95% of the time. Each of the behaviors associated with the gestures was tested in hardware-in-the-loop simulations and the ability to dynamically switch between them was demonstrated. The results show that the system can be used as a natural interface to assist an operator in directing a fleet of UAVs. Article highlights A gesture device was created that enables operators to command a group of UAVs in focus-constrained environments. Each gesture triggers high-level commands that direct a UAV group to execute complex behaviors. Software simulations and hardware-in-the-loop testing shows the device is effective in directing UAV groups.

A Bayesian-Network-based Approach to Risk Analysis in Runway Excursions

2019 ◽  
Vol 72 (5) ◽  
pp. 1121-1139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Calle-Alonso ◽  
Carlos J. Pérez ◽  
Eduardo S. Ayra
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Exploratory Analysis ◽  
Hypothesis Tests ◽  
Aircraft Accidents ◽  
Risk Scenarios ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
Expert Recommendations

Aircraft accidents are extremely rare in the aviation sector. However, their consequences can be very dramatic. One of the most important problems is runway excursions, when an aircraft exceeds the end (overrun) or the side (veer-off) of the runway. After performing exploratory analysis and hypothesis tests, a Bayesian-network-based approach was considered to provide information from risk scenarios involving landing procedures. The method was applied to a real database containing key variables related to landing operations on three runways. The objective was to analyse the effects over runway overrun excursions of failing to fulfil expert recommendations upon landing. For this purpose, the most influential variables were analysed statistically, and several scenarios were built, leading to a runway ranking based on the risk assessed.

SAFETY CRITICAL MARITIME INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS RESILIENCE: A CRITICAL REVIEW

2021 ◽  
Vol 158 (A3) ◽  
Author(s):  
A John ◽  
T C Nwaoha
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Environment ◽  
Risk Governance ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Safety Critical ◽  
Systems Security ◽  
Maritime Operations ◽  
High Level ◽  
Operational Processes ◽  
Maritime Infrastructure

Safety Critical Maritime Infrastructure (SCMI) systems are vulnerable to diverse risks in their challenging field of operations due to their interactions and interdependence. In addition, the multiplicity of stakeholders in these systems and the complex operational scenarios are often associated with a high level of uncertainty because they usually operate in a dynamic environment in which the boundaries of safety are pushed, leading to the disruption of operations. Therefore, the safety of these systems is very important to ensuring resilience of their operations. This research is focus on the background analysis of SCMI systems. This includes operational processes of SCMI systems, security threats and estimates of economic damage to the system, resilience engineering literature relevant to maritime operations; regulatory overview including risk governance of the systems, lessons learnt from major accidents and a concluding remark is drawn.

Fuzzy-support vector machine geotechnical risk analysis method based on Bayesian network

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. 1975-1985 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Jian-jing Zhang ◽  
Chong-hao Zhu ◽  
Bo Xiang ◽  
Dong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Fuzzy Support Vector Machine ◽  
Geotechnical Risk

scholarly journals How to Use Linear Programming for Information System Performances Optimization

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 49-66
Author(s):  
Marko Hell ◽  
Tea Dragičević
Keyword(s):  
Linear Programming ◽  
National Park ◽  
Dynamic Environment ◽  
Optimal Performance ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
Strategic Objectives ◽  
Strategic Objective ◽  
Business Goals ◽  
High Level

Abstract Background: Organisations nowadays operate in a very dynamic environment, and therefore, their ability of continuously adjusting the strategic plan to the new conditions is a must for achieving their strategic objectives. BSC is a well-known methodology for measuring performances enabling organizations to learn how well they are doing. In this paper, “BSC for IS” will be proposed in order to measure the IS impact on the achievement of organizations’ business goals. Objectives: The objective of this paper is to present the original procedure which is used to enhance the BSC methodology in planning the optimal targets of IS performances value in order to maximize the organization's effectiveness. Methods/Approach: The method used in this paper is the quantitative methodology - linear programming. In the case study, linear programming is used for optimizing organization’s strategic performance. Results: Results are shown on the example of a case study national park. An optimal performance value for the strategic objective has been calculated, as well as an optimal performance value for each DO (derived objective). Results are calculated in Excel, using Solver Add-in. Conclusions: The presentation of methodology through the case study of a national park shows that this methodology, though it requires a high level of formalisation, provides a very transparent performance calculation.

Mechanical Behaviors of Steel Strip Reinforced Flexible Pipes Under Bending

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shan Jin ◽  
Shuai Yuan ◽  
Ting Liu ◽  
Peihua Han ◽  
Yong Bai
Keyword(s):  
Steel Strip ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Pure Bending ◽  
Flexible Pipe ◽  
Four Point Bending ◽  
Offshore Engineering ◽  
Flexible Pipes ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Composite Pipe ◽  
Good Coincidence

Steel strip reinforced flexible pipe (SSRFP) is a kind of unbonded composite pipe, which has more application foreground in offshore engineering due to its excellent mechanics and the considerable flexibility. In practical application, SSRFP will inevitably experience bending during reeling process and installation. In this paper, the mechanical behavior of SSRFP subjected to pure bending are studied both experimentally and numerically. A four-point bending equipment is utilized to conduct the full-scale laboratorial tests of SSRFP. Furthermore, the commercial software ABAQUS is employed to simulate its ovalization instability. The results acquired from the ABAQUS simulation are compared with the ones from verification bending experiment, which are in good coincidence with each other. The proposed model and the relative results may be of interest to the manufacture factory engineers.

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