Probabilistic Analysis of Local Ice Pressures

Extensive work in recent years has been carried out on the calculation of global ice loads on a probabilistic basis. An analysis method is presented for local ice pressures, which yields values of pressure for specific values of exceedance probability. In developing this method, particular attention has been paid to problems of exposure (length, position and number of impacts), as well as the area of exposure (area within area versus nominal contact area). The solution has been formulated for a series of discrete impacts, e.g., rams by a vessel, or a series of periods of continuous interactions. Data for the MV CANMAR Kigoriak and USCGC Polar Sea were ranked and curves were fitted through the tail of probability plots for three panel sizes. This allowed determination of exceedance probabilities of the design coefficients for pressure as a function of area. The method developed was then applied to an example for a ship based on the data and expected number of rams per year. Formulas useful in the design of structures in ice are presented.