MODELING OF VIOLENT CRIME RATES WITH ECONOMIC INDICATORS USING HYBRIDIZATION OF GREY RELATIONAL ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION

2015 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Razana Alwee ◽  
Siti Mariyam Shamsuddin ◽  
Roselina Sallehuddin
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Relational Analysis ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Grey Relational

Regression and econometric models are commonly applied in modeling of violent crime rates. However, these models are mainly linear and only capable in modeling linear relationships. Moreover, the econometric models are quite complex to develop. Although time series model is a promising alternative tool, limited historical data of crime rates makes the standard time series models less suitable for modeling the violent crime rates. Thus, in this study, a hybrid model that can handle limited historical data is proposed for modeling the violent crime rates. The proposed hybrid model combines grey relational analysis and support vector regression. Since inaccurate parameters setting leads to inaccuracy of support vector regression model, particle swarm optimization is used to increase the accuracy of the model. The proposed hybrid model is used to model the violent crime rates of United State based on economic indicators. The proposed model also has additional features such as able to choose the data series for economic indicators and significant economic indicators for the violent crime rates. The experimental results showed that the proposed model produces more accurate forecast as compared to multiple linear regression in forecasting the violent crime rates.

scholarly journals Hybrid Support Vector Regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models Improved by Particle Swarm Optimization for Property Crime Rates Forecasting with Economic Indicators

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Razana Alwee ◽  
Siti Mariyam Hj Shamsuddin ◽  
Roselina Sallehuddin
Keyword(s):  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

Crimes forecasting is an important area in the field of criminology. Linear models, such as regression and econometric models, are commonly applied in crime forecasting. However, in real crimes data, it is common that the data consists of both linear and nonlinear components. A single model may not be sufficient to identify all the characteristics of the data. The purpose of this study is to introduce a hybrid model that combines support vector regression (SVR) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) to be applied in crime rates forecasting. SVR is very robust with small training data and high-dimensional problem. Meanwhile, ARIMA has the ability to model several types of time series. However, the accuracy of the SVR model depends on values of its parameters, while ARIMA is not robust to be applied to small data sets. Therefore, to overcome this problem, particle swarm optimization is used to estimate the parameters of the SVR and ARIMA models. The proposed hybrid model is used to forecast the property crime rates of the United State based on economic indicators. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model is able to produce more accurate forecasting results as compared to the individual models.

scholarly journals Economic Indicators Selection for Property Crime Rates using Grey Relational Analysis and Support Vector Regression

2022 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Razana Alwee ◽  
Siti Mariyam Hj Shamsuddin ◽  
Roselina Sallehuddin
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Grey Relational Analysis ◽  
Crime Rate ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Features Selection ◽  
Relational Analysis ◽  
Grey Relational

Features selection is very important in the multivariate models because the accuracy of forecasting results produced by the model are highly dependent on these selected features. The purpose of this study is to propose grey relational analysis and support vector regression for features selection. The features are economic indicators that are used to forecast property crime rate. Grey relational analysis selects the best data series to represent each economic indicator and rank the economic indicators according to its importance to the property crime rate. Next, the support vector regression is used to select the significant economic indicators where particle swarm optimization estimates the parameters of support vector regression. In this study, we use unemployment rate, consumer price index, gross domestic product and consumer sentiment index as the economic indicators, as well as property crime rate for the United States. From our experiments, we found that the gross domestic product, unemployment rate and consumer price index are the most influential economic indicators. The proposed method is also found to produce better forecasting accuracy as compared to multiple linear regressions.

scholarly journals Forecasting Time Series Movement Direction with Hybrid Methodology

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salwa Waeto ◽  
Khanchit Chuarkham ◽  
Arthit Intarasit
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Movement Direction ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Hybrid Methodology

Forecasting the tendencies of time series is a challenging task which gives better understanding. The purpose of this paper is to present the hybrid model of support vector regression associated with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average which is formulated by hybrid methodology. The proposed model is more convenient for practical usage. The tendencies modeling of time series for Thailand’s south insurgency is of interest in this research article. The empirical results using the time series of monthly number of deaths, injuries, and incidents for Thailand’s south insurgency indicate that the proposed hybrid model is an effective way to construct an estimated hybrid model which is better than the classical time series model or support vector regression. The best forecast accuracy is performed by using mean square error.

scholarly journals Incorporating Landslide Spatial Information and Correlated Features among Conditioning Factors for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2166
Author(s):  
Xin Yang ◽  
Rui Liu ◽  
Mei Yang ◽  
Jingjue Chen ◽  
Tianqiang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Ratio Method ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Conditioning Factors ◽  
Proposed Model

This study proposed a new hybrid model based on the convolutional neural network (CNN) for making effective use of historical datasets and producing a reliable landslide susceptibility map. The proposed model consists of two parts; one is the extraction of landslide spatial information using two-dimensional CNN and pixel windows, and the other is to capture the correlated features among the conditioning factors using one-dimensional convolutional operations. To evaluate the validity of the proposed model, two pure CNN models and the previously used methods of random forest and a support vector machine were selected as the benchmark models. A total of 621 earthquake-triggered landslides in Ludian County, China and 14 conditioning factors derived from the topography, geological, hydrological, geophysical, land use and land cover data were used to generate a geospatial dataset. The conditioning factors were then selected and analyzed by a multicollinearity analysis and the frequency ratio method. Finally, the trained model calculated the landslide probability of each pixel in the study area and produced the resultant susceptibility map. The results indicated that the hybrid model benefitted from the features extraction capability of the CNN and achieved high-performance results in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and statistical indices. Moreover, the proposed model had 6.2% and 3.7% more improvement than the two pure CNN models in terms of the AUC, respectively. Therefore, the proposed model is capable of accurately mapping landslide susceptibility and providing a promising method for hazard mitigation and land use planning. Additionally, it is recommended to be applied to other areas of the world.

Using the AR–SVR–CPSO hybrid model to forecast vibration signals in a high-speed train transmission system

2018 ◽  
Vol 233 (7) ◽  
pp. 701-714
Author(s):  
Yumei Liu ◽  
Ningguo Qiao ◽  
Congcong Zhao ◽  
Jiaojiao Zhuang ◽  
Guangdong Tian
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
High Speed Train ◽  
Support Vector Regression Model ◽  
Vibration Time ◽  
Auto Regression

Accurate vibration time series modeling can mine the internal law of data and provide valuable references for reliability assessment. To improve the prediction accuracy, this study proposes a hybrid model – called the AR–SVR–CPSO hybrid model – that combines the auto regression (AR) and support vector regression (SVR) models, with the weights optimized by the chaotic particle swarm optimization (CPSO) algorithm. First, the auto regression model with the difference method is employed to model the vibration time series. Second, the support vector regression model with the phase space reconstruction is constructed for predicting the vibration time series once more. Finally, the predictions of the AR and SVR models are weighted and summed together, with the weights being optimized by the CPSO. In addition, the data collected from the reliability test platform of high-speed train transmission systems and the “NASA prognostics data repository” are used to validate the hybrid model. The experimental results demonstrate that the hybrid model proposed in this study outperforms the traditional AR and SVR models.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Traffic Flow Prediction with KNN and LSTM

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianglong Luo ◽  
Danyang Li ◽  
Yu Yang ◽  
Shengrui Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Transportation Systems ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Traffic Flow Prediction ◽  
Flow Prediction ◽  
Proposed Model

The traffic flow prediction is becoming increasingly crucial in Intelligent Transportation Systems. Accurate prediction result is the precondition of traffic guidance, management, and control. To improve the prediction accuracy, a spatiotemporal traffic flow prediction method is proposed combined with k-nearest neighbor (KNN) and long short-term memory network (LSTM), which is called KNN-LSTM model in this paper. KNN is used to select mostly related neighboring stations with the test station and capture spatial features of traffic flow. LSTM is utilized to mine temporal variability of traffic flow, and a two-layer LSTM network is applied to predict traffic flow respectively in selected stations. The final prediction results are obtained by result-level fusion with rank-exponent weighting method. The prediction performance is evaluated with real-time traffic flow data provided by the Transportation Research Data Lab (TDRL) at the University of Minnesota Duluth (UMD) Data Center. Experimental results indicate that the proposed model can achieve a better performance compared with well-known prediction models including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), support vector regression (SVR), wavelet neural network (WNN), deep belief networks combined with support vector regression (DBN-SVR), and LSTM models, and the proposed model can achieve on average 12.59% accuracy improvement.

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