scholarly journals Temporal patterns and space‐time cluster analysis of foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) cases from 2007 to 2017 in Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 584-591
Author(s):  
Hu Suk Lee ◽  
Thanh Long Pham ◽  
Barbara Wieland
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth

A web-based system for near real-time surveillance and space-time cluster analysis of foot-and-mouth disease and other animal diseases

2009 ◽  
Vol 91 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andres M. Perez ◽  
Daniel Zeng ◽  
Chun-ju Tseng ◽  
Hsinchun Chen ◽  
Zachary Whedbee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Animal Diseases ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Web Based System

scholarly journals Patterns of spread and persistence of foot-and-mouth disease types A, O and Asia-1 in Turkey: a meta-population approach

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (3) ◽  
pp. 537-545 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. GILBERT ◽  
S. AKTAS ◽  
H. MOHAMMED ◽  
P. ROEDER ◽  
K. SUMPTION ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Short Distance ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Meat Production ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Province Level ◽  
Production Demand

Despite significant control efforts, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) persists in Turkey, and new strains of serotypes A, O and Asia-1 are periodically reported to enter the country from the east. The status of FMD in Turkey is important regionally because the country forms a natural bridge between Asia where the disease is endemic, and Europe which has disease-free status. This study analysed spatial and temporal patterns of FMD occurrence in Turkey to explore factors associated with the disease's persistence and spread. Annual records of FMD distribution in Turkish provinces throughout 1990–2002, grouped by serotype (O, A and Asia 1), were analysed using geostatistical techniques to explore their spatial and temporal patterns. A meta-population model was used to test how disease status, expressed in terms of presence/absence, extinction, and colonization, and measured at the province level throughout the periods 1990–1996 and 1997–2002, could be predicted using province-level data on: ruminant livestock numbers; meat production-demand discrepancy (as a surrogate measure of animal and animal products marketing, i.e. long-distance contagion through the traffic of mainly live animals to urban centres); and the disease prevalence distribution as recorded for the previous year. A drastic overall reduction in FMD occurrence was observed from the period 1990–1996 to 1997–2002 when the disease was shown to retract into persistence islands. FMD occurrence was associated with host abundance, short distance contagion from adjacent provinces, and meat production-demand discrepancies. With FMD retracting into identified provinces, a shift in predictors of FMD occurrence was observed with a lower contribution of short-distance contagion, and a relatively higher association with meat production-demand discrepancies leading to live animal transport over long distances, and hence presenting opportunities for identifying critical-control points. The pattern of persistence differed according to serotype groups and is discussed in relation to their differential affinity to cattle and small ruminant hosts.

Spatio-temporal clustering of hand, foot and mouth disease at the county level in Sichuan province, China, 2008–2013

2014 ◽  
Vol 143 (4) ◽  
pp. 831-838 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. LIU ◽  
X. ZHAO ◽  
F. YIN ◽  
Q. LV
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Sichuan Province ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
County Level ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Spatio Temporal

SUMMARYChina has recently experienced a marked increase in the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). Effective spatio-temporal monitoring of HFMD incidence is important for successful implementation of control and prevention measures. This study monitored county-level HFMD reported incidence rates for Sichuan province, China by examining spatio-temporal patterns. County-level data on HFMD daily cases between January 2008 and December 2013 were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. We first conducted purely temporal and purely spatial descriptive analyses to characterize the distribution patterns of HFMD. Then, the global Moran's I statistic and space–time scan statistic were used to detect the spatial autocorrelation and identify the high-risk clusters in each year, respectively. A total of 212267 HFMD cases were reported in Sichuan province during the study period (annual average incidence 43·65/100000), and the incidence seasonal peak was between April and July. Relatively high incidence rates appeared in the northeastern–southwestern belt. HFMD had positive spatial autocorrelation at the county level with global Moran's I increasing from 0·27 to 0·52 (P < 0·001). Spatio-temporal cluster analysis detected six most-likely clusters and several secondary clusters from 2008 to 2013. The centres of the six most-likely clusters were all located in the provincial capital city Chengdu. Chengdu and its neighbouring cities had always been spatio-temporal clusters, which indicated the need for further intensive space–time surveillance. Allocating more resources to these areas at suitable times might help to reduce HFMD incidence more effectively.

scholarly journals Space-Time Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease from 2005 to 2014 among Cattle Populations in Benin: A Retrospective Study

2017 ◽  
Vol 07 (01) ◽  
pp. 30-44
Author(s):  
Nestor Noudèkè ◽  
Evelyne Houndjè ◽  
Olivier Zannou ◽  
Ignace Dotché ◽  
Issaka Youssao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Study ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Time Analysis ◽  
Foot And Mouth

scholarly journals Relative importance of risk factors concerning the introduction and spread of classical swine fever and foot-and-mouth disease in Germany

2003 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 535-545 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Nissen ◽  
J. Krieter
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Conjoint Analysis ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Classical Swine Fever ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Federal States ◽  
German Federal States ◽  
Foot And Mouth

Abstract. This paper describes the results of an expert survey in Germany to obtain the relative importance of risk factors for the introduction and spread of classical swine fever (CSF) and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). 41 experts from five different fields were interviewed face-to-face, and 151 questionnaires were sent to experts working in the veterinary departments of five selected German federal states. In the questionnaire, experts were asked to estimate and rank situations presenting various degrees of danger. These situations were created by the respective risk factors being either "present" or "not present". The relative importance of each single risk factor was evaluated on the basis of Conjoint Analysis. The results of Conjoint Analysis were subjected to Cluster Analysis to determine whether the similarities in the experts' evaluation of risk situations might have been influenced by their working in the same field or in the same region. The evaluation of the risk factors indicates that for the introduction of CSF and FMD the import of livestock was seen as a great risk with relative importance at 26.1 % / 27.0 % (interview / questionnaire) for CSF and 25.3 % / 27.7 % for FMD, respectively. For CSF, wild boars present an additional risk at 26.8 % / 20.8 %. The danger of spreading both animal diseases rests in indirect contacts in connection with high animal density (32.8 % / 26.9 % for CSF and 39.5 % / 40.9 % for FMD). Animal trade at 27.2 % / 29.3 % was also seen as a danger for the spread of FMD. Cluster Analysis did not show any influence by mutual external conditions. Results were validated by comparing to findings in the literature.

scholarly journals Foot-and-Mouth Disease Space-Time Clusters and Risk Factors in Cattle and Buffalo in Bangladesh

Pathogens ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 423
Author(s):  
A K M Anisur Rahman ◽  
SK Shaheenur Islam ◽  
Md. Abu Sufian ◽  
Md. Hasanuzzaman Talukder ◽  
Michael P. Ward ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Scan Statistics ◽  
Hotspot Analysis ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Post Monsoon Season

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly endemic in Bangladesh. Using passive surveillance data (case records from all 64 districts of Bangladesh, 2014–2017) and district domestic ruminant population estimates, we calculated FMD cumulative incidence per 10,000 animals at risk per district, conducted cluster (Moran’s spatial autocorrelation and scan statistics) and hotspot analysis (local indicator of spatial association statistic), created predictive maps and identified risk factors using a geographically weighted regression model. A total of 548,817 FMD cases in cattle and buffalo were reported during the four-year study period. The highest proportion (31.5%) of cases were reported during the post-monsoon season, and from Chattogram (29.2%) division. Five space-time clusters, 9 local clusters, and 14 hotspots were identified. Overall, higher cumulative incidences of FMD were consistently predicted in eastern parts of Bangladesh. The precipitation in the pre-monsoon season (p = 0.0008) was positively associated with FMD in Bangladesh. Results suggest climate plays an important role in the epidemiology of FMD in Bangladesh, and high risk zones exist. In a resource limited-setting, hotspots and clusters should be prioritized for vaccination coverage, and surveillance for FMD should be targeted in eastern areas of Bangladesh and during the post-monsoon season.

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