Stratified space–time infectious disease modelling, with an application to hand, foot and mouth disease in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 67 (5) ◽  
pp. 1379-1398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cici Bauer ◽  
Jon Wakefield
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Disease Modelling ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Stratified Space

Spatio-temporal clustering of hand, foot and mouth disease at the county level in Sichuan province, China, 2008–2013

2014 ◽  
Vol 143 (4) ◽  
pp. 831-838 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. LIU ◽  
X. ZHAO ◽  
F. YIN ◽  
Q. LV
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Sichuan Province ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
County Level ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Spatio Temporal

SUMMARYChina has recently experienced a marked increase in the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). Effective spatio-temporal monitoring of HFMD incidence is important for successful implementation of control and prevention measures. This study monitored county-level HFMD reported incidence rates for Sichuan province, China by examining spatio-temporal patterns. County-level data on HFMD daily cases between January 2008 and December 2013 were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. We first conducted purely temporal and purely spatial descriptive analyses to characterize the distribution patterns of HFMD. Then, the global Moran's I statistic and space–time scan statistic were used to detect the spatial autocorrelation and identify the high-risk clusters in each year, respectively. A total of 212267 HFMD cases were reported in Sichuan province during the study period (annual average incidence 43·65/100000), and the incidence seasonal peak was between April and July. Relatively high incidence rates appeared in the northeastern–southwestern belt. HFMD had positive spatial autocorrelation at the county level with global Moran's I increasing from 0·27 to 0·52 (P < 0·001). Spatio-temporal cluster analysis detected six most-likely clusters and several secondary clusters from 2008 to 2013. The centres of the six most-likely clusters were all located in the provincial capital city Chengdu. Chengdu and its neighbouring cities had always been spatio-temporal clusters, which indicated the need for further intensive space–time surveillance. Allocating more resources to these areas at suitable times might help to reduce HFMD incidence more effectively.

scholarly journals Space-Time Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease from 2005 to 2014 among Cattle Populations in Benin: A Retrospective Study

2017 ◽  
Vol 07 (01) ◽  
pp. 30-44
Author(s):  
Nestor Noudèkè ◽  
Evelyne Houndjè ◽  
Olivier Zannou ◽  
Ignace Dotché ◽  
Issaka Youssao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Study ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Time Analysis ◽  
Foot And Mouth

Suspected Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in an Adult: An Uncommon but Important Infectious Disease

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Khasnur Abd Malek ◽  
Ilham Ameera Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Case Report ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Differential Diagnoses ◽  
Management Guidelines ◽  
Childhood Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Working Adult

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is an uncommon infection to be diagnosed in adults. We present a case of a 32-year-old immunocompetent man with HFMD. This case report highlights the importance of identifying a common childhood disease that could occur in an adult. Recognition is important for possible role in notification, especially for outbreak prevention and to consider potential differential diagnoses. The management and diseaseprevention measures in a working adult in Malaysia and the shortfalls identified in management guidelines are discussed.

A web-based system for near real-time surveillance and space-time cluster analysis of foot-and-mouth disease and other animal diseases

2009 ◽  
Vol 91 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andres M. Perez ◽  
Daniel Zeng ◽  
Chun-ju Tseng ◽  
Hsinchun Chen ◽  
Zachary Whedbee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Animal Diseases ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Web Based System

scholarly journals Interaction analysis on transmissibility of main pathogens of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Xi’an: a modelling study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Bai ◽  
Kun Liu ◽  
Zhongjun Shao ◽  
Zhijun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Interaction Analysis ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Xi’An City ◽  
Modelling Study

Abstract Objectives: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a new infectious disease that has attracted much attention at home and abroad, and it spreads widely. In this study, we aimed to explore the interaction between the main pathogens of HFMD through the model of transmission dynamics.Method: The database of HFMD in Xi'an City was established and the main pathogens (EV71, CoxA16, other enteroviruses) were monitored for a long time. In the study, we defined the ascending period of reported cases as Rasc, and the descending period as Rdes, and calculated the regeneration number of the two periods using susceptible–infectious–recovered model.Results: In Xi’an City, Rasc and Rdes of HFMD was 1.39 (95% CI: 1.31 – 1.48) and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.65 – 0.74), respectively. CoxA16 and other enteroviruses interacted with each other and decreased the value of Rasc. However, Rdes of CoxA16 was increased by other enteroviruses directionally. However, during the reported cases decreasing period, interactions only occurred between EV71 and other enteroviruses and between CoxA16 and other enteroviruses. These interactions all decreased Rasc but increased Rdes of affected pathogens.Conclusions: There is interaction among pathogens of HFMD in Xi'an City. The reproduction number of pathogens increased or decreased to a certain extent after interaction, and finally approached 1.

scholarly journals Foot-and-Mouth Disease Space-Time Clusters and Risk Factors in Cattle and Buffalo in Bangladesh

Pathogens ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 423
Author(s):  
A K M Anisur Rahman ◽  
SK Shaheenur Islam ◽  
Md. Abu Sufian ◽  
Md. Hasanuzzaman Talukder ◽  
Michael P. Ward ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Scan Statistics ◽  
Hotspot Analysis ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Post Monsoon Season

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly endemic in Bangladesh. Using passive surveillance data (case records from all 64 districts of Bangladesh, 2014–2017) and district domestic ruminant population estimates, we calculated FMD cumulative incidence per 10,000 animals at risk per district, conducted cluster (Moran’s spatial autocorrelation and scan statistics) and hotspot analysis (local indicator of spatial association statistic), created predictive maps and identified risk factors using a geographically weighted regression model. A total of 548,817 FMD cases in cattle and buffalo were reported during the four-year study period. The highest proportion (31.5%) of cases were reported during the post-monsoon season, and from Chattogram (29.2%) division. Five space-time clusters, 9 local clusters, and 14 hotspots were identified. Overall, higher cumulative incidences of FMD were consistently predicted in eastern parts of Bangladesh. The precipitation in the pre-monsoon season (p = 0.0008) was positively associated with FMD in Bangladesh. Results suggest climate plays an important role in the epidemiology of FMD in Bangladesh, and high risk zones exist. In a resource limited-setting, hotspots and clusters should be prioritized for vaccination coverage, and surveillance for FMD should be targeted in eastern areas of Bangladesh and during the post-monsoon season.

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