Decision‐Making Analytics Using Plural Resilience Parameters for Adaptive Management of Complex Systems

Risk Analysis ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 871-889 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shital A. Thekdi ◽  
Joost Santos
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Adaptive Management

scholarly journals Integrating Value Considerations in the Decision Making for the Design of Biorefineries

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 2927-2955
Author(s):  
Mar Palmeros Parada ◽  
Lotte Asveld ◽  
Patricia Osseweijer ◽  
John Alexander Posada
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Design Process ◽  
Design Decision ◽  
Value Sensitive Design ◽  
Design Practice ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Design Alternatives ◽  
Biobased Production

AbstractBiobased production has been promoted as a sustainable alternative to fossil resources. However, controversies over its impact on sustainability highlight societal concerns, value tensions and uncertainties that have not been taken into account during its development. In this work, the consideration of stakeholders’ values in a biorefinery design project is investigated. Value sensitive design (VSD) is a promising approach to the design of technologies with consideration of stakeholders’ values, however, it is not directly applicable for complex systems like biorefineries. Therefore, some elements of VSD, such as the identification of relevant values and their connection to a technology’s features, are brought into biorefinery design practice. Midstream modulation (MM), an approach to promoting the consideration of societal aspects during research and development activities, is applied to promote reflection and value considerations during the design decision making. As result, it is shown that MM interventions during the design process led to new design alternatives in support of stakeholders' values, and allowed to recognize and respond to emerging value tensions within the scope of the project. In this way, the present work shows a novel approach for the technical investigation of VSD, especially for biorefineries. Also, based on this work it is argued that not only reflection, but also flexibility and openness are important for the application of VSD in the context of biorefinery design.

scholarly journals SELF-ORGANIZATION IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS AS DECISION MAKING

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (03n04) ◽  
pp. 1450016 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. I. YUKALOV ◽  
D. SORNETTE
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Mathematical Formulation ◽  
Conditional Entropy ◽  
Self Organization ◽  
Entropy Maximization ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Macroscopic States ◽  
System States ◽  
Statistical Systems

The idea is advanced that self-organization in complex systems can be treated as decision making (as it is performed by humans) and, vice versa, decision making is nothing but a kind of self-organization in the decision maker nervous systems. A mathematical formulation is suggested based on the definition of probabilities of system states, whose particular cases characterize the probabilities of structures, patterns, scenarios, or prospects. In this general framework, it is shown that the mathematical structures of self-organization and of decision making are identical. This makes it clear how self-organization can be seen as an endogenous decision making process and, reciprocally, decision making occurs via an endogenous self-organization. The approach is illustrated by phase transitions in large statistical systems, crossovers in small statistical systems, evolutions and revolutions in social and biological systems, structural self-organization in dynamical systems, and by the probabilistic formulation of classical and behavioral decision theories. In all these cases, self-organization is described as the process of evaluating the probabilities of macroscopic states or prospects in the search for a state with the largest probability. The general way of deriving the probability measure for classical systems is the principle of minimal information, that is, the conditional entropy maximization under given constraints. Behavioral biases of decision makers can be characterized in the same way as analogous to quantum fluctuations in natural systems.

scholarly journals Συμμετοχική και προσαρμοζόμενη διαχείριση

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Βασιλική Κλεφτογιάννη
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Adaptive Management ◽  
Protected Area ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Local People ◽  
Professional Activity ◽  
Environmental Pressures ◽  
Professional Activities ◽  
Primary Sector ◽  
Management Policies

The aim of this study was to examine the applicability of successful participatory and adaptive management in the protected area of Axios-Loudias-Aliakmonas estuaries, based on local people‟s perceptions in relation to protection, as well as on main elements considered to be critical for successful participatory processes. Participatory and adaptive management of protected areas includes involvement of stakeholders in decision making and the ability to adjust management policies to emerging needs, associated with complex and dynamic socio-natural systems. The area of the Axios-Loudias-Aliakmonas estuaries is protected under national, European and international environmental legislation. Simultaneously, the area is one of the most dynamic agro-ecosystems of Greece. Agriculture and fishing/mussel culture are well-developed activities of the primary sector of economy resulting in a number of environmental pressures on the protected area. Until recently, there was no substantial institutional protection of the area. The Common Ministerial Decision designating the area protected, pending for several years, was finally published in 2009. This delay was considered associated with reactions of the local people to potential restrictions imposed on their professional activities. The first part of this study attempts to record perceptions of the local population regarding important issues related with the protected area and explore how they are influenced by age and education of respondents, their economic dependence on it and distance of their residence from its borders. Using a questionnaire, the survey was conducted to a total sample of 822 respondents. The first part reveals a strong spatial variation in the views of local people, which requires special management policies. In general, a positive attitude towards protection was recorded, although there was a part of respondents that expressed negative attitude to protection, associated exclusively with economic interests. This study coincided with a pilot application of adaptive management in the area by the Managing Authority of Axios-Loudias-Aliakmonas estuaries. The Managing Authority applied an evaluating method of the main environmental threats to the area by a group of experts. Given the absence of stakeholders of the primary sector from this process, we decided to explore their views regarding threats by applying a similar approach. To this aim, ten focus groups were formed, seven representing agricultural cooperatives and three representing fishing cooperatives. The results of the second part show that stakeholders of the primary sector tend to underestimate specific threats related to their professional activities. However, most groups recognized the wetland‟s value; also, in a number of cases, their assessment of threats approached the experts‟ assessment. It appears that the conditions for implementing participatory and adaptive management in the region are generally favorable, provided the effective tackling of issues which incite conflict or impede management efforts. Important among them are the disparity between different regions and the association of professional activity and financial interests with the attitude to protection. Active and effective involvement of major stakeholders in early decision making stages, that is the process of participatory and adaptive management itself, can help in addressing these issues.

Diagnosis and Evaluation

2017 ◽  
pp. 138-181
Author(s):  
Yury N. Kovalyov
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Model Theory ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Open Systems ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Mathematical Apparatus ◽  
Accident Rate ◽  
Technical Systems

The accident free work of complex systems depends of the compatibility of their components. When it comes to socio-technical, this means the compatibility of the human factor with the environment and equipment, organized through a specific interface. At the same time, there is a certain contradiction: the modeling and design of equipment and interface is based on a classical mathematical apparatus, whereas its use for understanding human activity is confronted with the non-formalizability of many aspects of perception and decision-making. Elimination of this contradiction on the basis of the modeling apparatus, equally suitable for modeling all components of socio-technical systems, will open the way to improving the compatibility of components and reducing the accident rate. Therefore, the development of such a mathematical apparatus is an important problem. In this chapter is presented the modelling instrument, which is adequate to the composite open systems properties – axiomatic wave model, theory of self-organization, practical examples.

Ethics for Complex Systems

2021 ◽  
pp. 62-82
Author(s):  
James Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Complex Systems ◽  
Social Norms ◽  
Real World ◽  
External Validity ◽  
Thought Experiments ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Causal Models ◽  
Government Action ◽  
Evidence Collection

This chapter argues that the scale of the challenge posed by external validity requires a similarly sizeable response. Not only should practitioners approach evidence collection and interventions in policy differently, but philosophers should also change the way they conceive of ethics. The default should no longer be to start from simplistic causal models or thought experiments, while being dimly aware that these approaches will exclude some features that would be relevant for real-world decision-making. Rather, both practitioners and philosophers should start from the premise that social processes are complex systems. Moreover, complex systems are in important aspects performative: for example, what counts as a breach of trust, or a violation of privacy, is not something that can be discovered once and for all, but is partly constituted by social norms and individual expectations, which will themselves change in response to government action.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document