scholarly journals Measuring Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Using High-Frequency Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (6) ◽  
pp. 1139-1166 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOSHUA C.C. CHAN ◽  
YONG SONG
2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (4) ◽  
pp. 1092-1125
Author(s):  
Diego R. Känzig

This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the oil price and the macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC and high-frequency data, I identify an oil supply news shock. These shocks have statistically and economically significant effects. Negative news leads to an immediate increase in oil prices, a gradual fall in oil production, and an increase in inventories. This has consequences for the US economy: activity falls, prices and inflation expectations rise, and the dollar depreciates, providing evidence for a strong channel operating through supply expectations. (JEL E31, E32, F31, Q35, Q38, Q43)


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rim mname Lamouchi ◽  
Russell mname Davidson ◽  
Ibrahim mname Fatnassi ◽  
Abderazak Ben mname Maatoug

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