Do projections from bioclimatic envelope models and climate change metrics match?

2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel A. Garcia ◽  
Mar Cabeza ◽  
Res Altwegg ◽  
Miguel B. Araújo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope Models ◽  
Change Metrics ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope

scholarly journals Assessing the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change using an ensemble of statistical bioclimatic envelope models

2010 ◽  
Vol 45 ◽  
pp. 131-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
JM Clark ◽  
AV Gallego-Sala ◽  
TEH Allott ◽  
SJ Chapman ◽  
T Farewell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Blanket Peat ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope Models ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope

scholarly journals Bioclimatic envelope models predict a decrease in tropical forest carbon stocks with climate change in Madagascar

2016 ◽  
Vol 104 (3) ◽  
pp. 703-715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ghislain Vieilledent ◽  
Oliver Gardi ◽  
Clovis Grinand ◽  
Christian Burren ◽  
Mamitiana Andriamanjato ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Forest ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Forest Carbon ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope Models ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope

scholarly journals Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 20160236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Damien A. Fordham ◽  
Barry W. Brook ◽  
Conrad J. Hoskin ◽  
Robert L. Pressey ◽  
Jeremy VanDerWal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Extinction Debt ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Species Area ◽  
Wet Tropics ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope

The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species–area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays—an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur.

scholarly journals Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain

2010 ◽  
Vol 45 ◽  
pp. 151-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
AV Gallego-Sala ◽  
JM Clark ◽  
JI House ◽  
HG Orr ◽  
IC Prentice ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope Model ◽  
Envelope Model ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope

Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change

2006 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 751-777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Risto K. Heikkinen ◽  
Miska Luoto ◽  
Miguel B. Araújo ◽  
Raimo Virkkala ◽  
Wilfried Thuiller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Bioclimatic Modelling ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope

Potential impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity are often assessed using single-species bioclimatic ‘envelope’models. Such models are a special case of species distribution models in which the current geographical distribution of species is related to climatic variables so to enable projections of distributions under future climate change scenarios. This work reviews a number of critical methodological issues that may lead to uncertainty in predictions from bioclimatic modelling. Particular attention is paid to recent developments of bioclimatic modelling that address some of these issues as well as to the topics where more progress needs to be made. Developing and applying bioclimatic models in a informative way requires good understanding of a wide range of methodologies, including the choice of modelling technique, model validation, collinearity, autocorrelation, biased sampling of explanatory variables, scaling and impacts of non-climatic factors. A key challenge for future research is integrating factors such as land cover, direct CO2 effects, biotic interactions and dispersal mechanisms into species-climate models. We conclude that, although bioclimatic envelope models have a number of important advantages, they need to be applied only when users of models have a thorough understanding of their limitations and uncertainties.

Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem distribution in Alberta

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 1001-1010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard R. Schneider ◽  
Andreas Hamann ◽  
Dan Farr ◽  
Xianli Wang ◽  
Stan Boutin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Simple Modification ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope Model ◽  
Envelope Model ◽  
Disturbance Model ◽  
Ecosystem Changes ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope

We propose a new and relatively simple modification to extend the utility of bioclimatic envelope models for land-use planning and adaptation under climate change. In our approach, the trajectory of vegetation change is set by a bioclimatic envelope model, but the rate of transition is determined by a disturbance model. We used this new approach to explore potential changes in the distribution of ecosystems in Alberta, Canada, under alternative climate and disturbance scenarios. The disturbance model slowed the rate of ecosystem transition, relative to the raw projections of the bioclimatic envelope model. But even with these transition lags in place, a northward shift of grasslands into much of the existing parkland occurred over the 50 years of our simulation. There was also a conversion of 12%–21% of Alberta’s boreal region to parkland. In addition to aspatial projections, our simulations provide testable predictions about where ecosystem changes as a result of climate change are most likely to be initially observed. We also conducted an investigation of model uncertainty that provides an indication of the robustness of our findings and identifies fruitful avenues for future research.

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