scholarly journals Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain

2010 ◽  
Vol 45 ◽  
pp. 151-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
AV Gallego-Sala ◽  
JM Clark ◽  
JI House ◽  
HG Orr ◽  
IC Prentice ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope Model ◽  
Envelope Model ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope

Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem distribution in Alberta

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 1001-1010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard R. Schneider ◽  
Andreas Hamann ◽  
Dan Farr ◽  
Xianli Wang ◽  
Stan Boutin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Simple Modification ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope Model ◽  
Envelope Model ◽  
Disturbance Model ◽  
Ecosystem Changes ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope

We propose a new and relatively simple modification to extend the utility of bioclimatic envelope models for land-use planning and adaptation under climate change. In our approach, the trajectory of vegetation change is set by a bioclimatic envelope model, but the rate of transition is determined by a disturbance model. We used this new approach to explore potential changes in the distribution of ecosystems in Alberta, Canada, under alternative climate and disturbance scenarios. The disturbance model slowed the rate of ecosystem transition, relative to the raw projections of the bioclimatic envelope model. But even with these transition lags in place, a northward shift of grasslands into much of the existing parkland occurred over the 50 years of our simulation. There was also a conversion of 12%–21% of Alberta’s boreal region to parkland. In addition to aspatial projections, our simulations provide testable predictions about where ecosystem changes as a result of climate change are most likely to be initially observed. We also conducted an investigation of model uncertainty that provides an indication of the robustness of our findings and identifies fruitful avenues for future research.

scholarly journals Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 20160236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Damien A. Fordham ◽  
Barry W. Brook ◽  
Conrad J. Hoskin ◽  
Robert L. Pressey ◽  
Jeremy VanDerWal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Extinction Debt ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Extinction Rates ◽  
Species Area ◽  
Wet Tropics ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope

The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species–area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays—an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on the Future of Forests in Great Britain

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianjun Yu ◽  
Pam Berry ◽  
Benoit P. Guillod ◽  
Thomas Hickler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Physiological Effects ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
The Mean

Forests provide important ecosystem services but are being affected by climate change, not only changes in temperature and precipitation but potentially also directly through the plant-physiological effects of increases in atmospheric CO2. We applied a tree-species-based dynamic model (LPJ-GUESS) at a high 5-km spatial resolution to project climate and CO2 impacts on tree species and thus forests in Great Britain. Climatic inputs consisted of a novel large climate scenario ensemble derived from a regional climate model (RCM) under an RCP 8.5 emission scenario. The climate change impacts were assessed using leaf area index (LAI) and net primary productivity (NPP) for the 2030s and the 2080s compared to baseline (1975–2004). The potential CO2 effects, which are highly uncertain, were examined using a constant CO2 level scenario for comparison. Also, a climate vulnerability index was developed to assess the potential drought impact on modeled tree species. In spite of substantial future reductions in rainfall, the mean projected LAI and NPP generally showed an increase over Britain, with a larger increment in Scotland, northwest England, and west Wales. The CO2 increase led to higher projected LAI and NPP, especially in northern Britain, but with little effect on overall geographical patterns. However, without accounting for plant-physiological effects of elevated CO2, NPP in Southern and Central Britain and easternmost parts of Wales showed a decrease relative to 2011, implying less ecosystem service provisioning, e.g., in terms of timber yields and carbon storage. The projected change of LAI and NPP varied from 5 to 100% of the mean change, due to the uncertainty arising from natural weather-induced variability, with Southeast England being most sensitive to this. It was also the most susceptible to climate change and drought, with reduced suitability for broad-leaved trees such as beech, small-leaved lime, and hornbeam. These could lead to important changes in woodland composition across Great Britain.

scholarly journals Potential climate-induced distributions of <i>Lophodermium</i> needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century

Web Ecology ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. M. Tchebakova ◽  
N. A. Kuzmina ◽  
E. I. Parfenova ◽  
V. A. Senashova ◽  
S. R. Kuzmin
Keyword(s):  
Common Disease ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Needle Cast ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope Model ◽  
Pine Trees ◽  
Potential Pathogen ◽  
Outbreak Areas ◽  
Envelope Model ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope

Abstract. Needle cast caused by fungi of the genus Lophodermium Chevall. is a common disease in pine trees in Siberia. Regression analyses relating needle cast events to climatic variables in 1997–2010 showed that the disease depended most on precipitation of two successive years. Temperature conditions were important to trigger the disease in wetter years. We used our regional bioclimatic envelope model and IPCC scenarios to model the needle cast distribution and its outbreaks in the 21st century. In a warming climate, the needle cast range would shift northwards. By 2020, needle cast outbreaks would already have damaged the largest forest areas. But outbreak areas would decrease by 2080 because the ranges of modeled pathogen and Scots pine, the disease host, would separate: the host tree progression would be halted by the slower permafrost retreat, which would in turn halt the potential pathogen progression.

Future projections of temperature-related climate change impacts on the railway network of Great Britain

2013 ◽  
Vol 120 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 71-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erika J. Palin ◽  
Hazel E. Thornton ◽  
Camilla T. Mathison ◽  
Rachel E. McCarthy ◽  
Robin T. Clark ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Railway Network ◽  
Future Projections

scholarly journals On the importance of predictor choice, modelling technique, and number of pseudo‐absences for bioclimatic envelope model performance

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (21) ◽  
pp. 12307-12317
Author(s):  
Mirza Čengić ◽  
Jasmijn Rost ◽  
Daniela Remenska ◽  
Jan H. Janse ◽  
Mark A. J. Huijbregts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Performance ◽  
Modelling Technique ◽  
Choice Modelling ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope Model ◽  
Envelope Model ◽  
Bioclimatic Envelope

scholarly journals A large-sample investigation into uncertain climate change impacts on high flows across Great Britain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosanna Lane ◽  
Gemma Coxon ◽  
Jim Freer ◽  
Jan Seibert ◽  
Thorsten Wagener
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Parameter Uncertainties ◽  
High Flows ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Climate change may significantly increase flood risk across Great Britain (GB), but there are large uncertainties in both future climatic changes and how these propagate into changing river flows. Here, the impact of climate change on the magnitude and frequency of high flows is modelled for 346 larger (> 144 km2) catchments across GB using the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) and the DECIPHeR hydrological modelling framework. This study provides the first spatially consistent GB projections including both climate ensembles and hydrological model parameter uncertainties. Generally, results indicated an increase in the magnitude and frequency of high flows (Q10, Q1 and annual maximum) along the west coast of GB in the future (2050–2075), with increases in annual maximum flows of up to 65 % for west Scotland. In contrast, median flows (Q50) were projected to decrease across GB. All flow projections contained large uncertainties, and while the RCMs were the largest source of uncertainty overall, hydrological modelling uncertainties were considerable in east and south-east England. Regional variation in flow projections were found to relate to i) differences in climatic change and ii) catchment conditions during the baseline period as characterised by the runoff coefficient (mean discharge divided by mean precipitation). Importantly, increased heavy-precipitation events (defined by an increase in 99th percentile precipitation) did not always result in increased flood flows for catchments with low runoff coefficients, highlighting the varying factors leading to changes in high flows. These results provide a national overview of climate change impacts on high flows across GB, which will inform climate change adaptation, while also highlighting the need to account for uncertainty sources when modelling climate change impact on high flows.

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