Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change?

W. Gareth Rees; Annika Hofgaard; Stéphane Boudreau; David M. Cairns; Karen Harper; Steven Mamet; Ingrid Mathisen; Zuzanna Swirad; Olga Tutubalina

doi:10.1111/gcb.15113

Tree spatial pattern within the forest–tundra ecotone: a comparison of sites across CanadaThis article is a contribution to the series Tree recruitment, growth, and distribution at the circumpolar forest–tundra transition.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research ◽

10.1139/x10-221 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 41 (3) ◽

pp. 479-489 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Karen A. Harper ◽

Ryan K. Danby ◽

Danielle L. De Fields ◽

Keith P. Lewis ◽

Andrew J. Trant ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Pattern ◽

Patch Size ◽

Forest Tree ◽

Tree Cover ◽

Site Specific ◽

Forest Tundra ◽

Local Variance ◽

Tree Spatial Pattern ◽

Subarctic Forest

Although many studies have focused on factors influencing treeline advance with climate change, less consideration has been given to potential changes in tree spatial pattern across the forest–tundra ecotone. We investigated trends in spatial pattern across the forest–tundra ecotone and geographical variation in the Yukon, Manitoba, and Labrador, Canada. Tree cover was measured in contiguous quadrats along transects up to 100 m long located in Forest, Ecotone, and Tundra sections across the forest–tundra transition. Spatial patterns were analyzed using new local variance to estimate patch size and wavelet analysis to determine the scale and amount of aggregation. Compared with the Forest, tree cover in the Ecotone was less aggregated at most sites, with fewer smaller patches of trees. We found evidence that shorter trees may be clumped at some sites, perhaps due to shelter from the wind, and we found little support for regular spacing that would indicate competition. With climate change, trees in the Ecotone will likely become more aggregated as patches enlarge and new patches establish. However, results were site-specific, varying with aspect and the presence of krummholz (stunted trees); therefore, strategies for adaptation of communities to climate change in Canada’s subarctic forest would need to reflect these differences.

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Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths

Global Change Biology ◽

10.1111/gcb.12529 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 20 (6) ◽

pp. 1723-1737 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

Mark D. Hunter ◽

Mikhail V. Kozlov ◽

Juhani Itämies ◽

Erkki Pulliainen ◽

Jaana Bäck ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Subarctic Forest

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Averting robo-bees: why free-flying robotic bees are a bad idea

Emerging Topics in Life Sciences ◽

10.1042/etls20190063 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (6) ◽

pp. 723-729

Author(s):

Roslyn Gleadow ◽

Jim Hanan ◽

Alan Dorin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Computer Simulation ◽

Food Security ◽

European Countries ◽

Plant Interactions ◽

Plant Insect Interactions ◽

Native Habitat ◽

Insect Pollinators ◽

Insect Interactions

Food security and the sustainability of native ecosystems depends on plant-insect interactions in countless ways. Recently reported rapid and immense declines in insect numbers due to climate change, the use of pesticides and herbicides, the introduction of agricultural monocultures, and the destruction of insect native habitat, are all potential contributors to this grave situation. Some researchers are working towards a future where natural insect pollinators might be replaced with free-flying robotic bees, an ecologically problematic proposal. We argue instead that creating environments that are friendly to bees and exploring the use of other species for pollination and bio-control, particularly in non-European countries, are more ecologically sound approaches. The computer simulation of insect-plant interactions is a far more measured application of technology that may assist in managing, or averting, ‘Insect Armageddon' from both practical and ethical viewpoints.

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Modelling ecosystem adaptation and dangerous rates of global warming

Emerging Topics in Life Sciences ◽

10.1042/etls20180113 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 221-231 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Rebecca Millington ◽

Peter M. Cox ◽

Jonathan R. Moore ◽

Gabriel Yvon-Durocher

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Diffusion Rate ◽

Individual Species ◽

Genetic Evolution ◽

Rates Of Change ◽

Rapid Climate Change ◽

Warming Climate ◽

Intraspecies Competition ◽

High Trait

Abstract We are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

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