scholarly journals Drivers of local extinction risk in alpine plants under warming climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanna A. Nomoto ◽  
Jake M. Alexander
2016 ◽  
Vol 94 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.L. Kubisch ◽  
V. Corbalán ◽  
N.R. Ibargüengoytía ◽  
B. Sinervo

Recently, Sinervo et al. (2010, Science, 328: 894–899) reported declines of lizard biodiversity due to local warming trends and altered thermal niches. Herein, we applied the Sinervo et al. (2010) physiological model to predict the local extinction risk of three species of lizard from Patagonia. Whereas the previous model used a single equation (for the extinctions of Blue Spiny Lizard (Sceloporus serrifer Cope, 1866) in the Yucatan Peninsula) relating environmental temperatures (Te) to hours of restriction (i.e., the period when lizards are forced into retreat sites because environmental temperatures are too high), we measured habitat-specific equations for the Te values of each species. We analyzed the vulnerability of Darwin’s Ground Gecko (Homonota darwinii Boulenger, 1885), Bariloche Lizard (Liolaemus pictus (Duméril and Bibron, 1837)), and Mountain Slope Lizard (Liolaemus elongatus Koslowsky, 1896) to climate change considering thermal physiological constraints on activity during the reproductive period. While Sinervo et al. (2010) predicted that the Phyllodactylidae family will not suffer from impacts of climate change, our physiological model predicted that 20% of the H. darwinii populations could become extinct by 2080. The physiological model also predicted that 15% of L. pictus populations and 26.5% of L. elongatus populations could become extinct by 2080. The most vulnerable populations are those located near the northern and eastern boundaries of their distributions.


2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 229-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth H. Boakes ◽  
Nicholas J.B. Isaac ◽  
Richard A. Fuller ◽  
Georgina M. Mace ◽  
Philip J.K. McGowan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rupert Mathwin ◽  
Skye Wassens ◽  
Matthew Gibbs ◽  
Jeanne Young ◽  
Qifeng Ye ◽  
...  

The regulation of river systems alters hydrodynamics and often reduces lateral connectivity between river channels and floodplains. For taxa such as frogs that rely on floodplain wetlands to complete their lifecycle, decreasing inundation frequency can reduce recruitment and increase the probability of local extinction. We virtually reconstructed the inundation patterns of wetlands under natural and regulated flow conditions and built stochastic population models to quantify the probability of local extinction under different inundation scenarios. Specifically, we explored the interplay of inundation frequency, habitat size, and successive dry years on the local extinction probability of the threatened southern bell frog Litoria raniformis in the Murray River floodplains of South Australia. We hypothesised that the changes in wetland inundation resulting from river regulation are driving the decline of L. raniformis in this system. Since river regulation began in the 1920s, the inundation frequency of many reliable breeding habitats has decreased to a point where they no longer support local populations. Increasing successive dry years drives the probability of local extinction, particularly in smaller wetlands. Larger wetlands and those with more frequent average inundation are less susceptible to these effects. Synthesis and Applications. Although the availability of suitable habitats has reduced, environmental water provision is a promising tool to mitigate the negative impacts of river regulation on amphibian populations. Our modelling approach can be used to prioritise the delivery of environmental water (through pumping or the operation of flow-regulating structures) to minimise the probability of local extinction in L. raniformis and potentially many other frog species. By quantifying the extinction risk of amphibian populations, we can strategically manage environmental water to reduce successive catastrophic breeding failures and increase the probability of persistence.


2015 ◽  
Vol 48 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael A. Lara-Reséndiz ◽  
Héctor Gadsden ◽  
Philip C. Rosen ◽  
Barry Sinervo ◽  
Fausto R. Méndez-De la Cruz

2010 ◽  
Vol 18 (NA) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
David C. Hardie ◽  
Jeffrey A. Hutchings

The nature of species at the extremes of their ranges impinges fundamentally on diverse biological issues, including species’ range dynamics, population variability, speciation and conservation biology. We review the literature concerning genetic and ecological variation at species’ range edges, and discuss historical and contemporary forces that may generate observed trends, as well as their current and future implications. We discuss literature which shows how environmental, ecological and evolutionary factors act to limit species’ ranges, and how these factors impose selection for adaptation or dispersal in peripheral populations exposed to extreme and stochastic biotic and abiotic stressors. When conditions are sufficiently harsh such that local extinction is certain, peripheral populations may represent temporary offshoots from stable core populations. However, in cases where peripheral populations persist at the range edge under divergent or extreme conditions, biologically significant differences can arise from historical and contemporary ecological and evolutionary forces. In many such cases reviewed herein, peripheral populations tended to diverge from the species’ core, and to display lower genetic diversity or greater stress-adaptation. We conclude that while such populations may be of particular conservation value as significant components of intraspecific biodiversity or sources of evolutionary innovation and persistence during environmental change, small and greatly variable population size, especially combined with low genetic variability, can result in elevated extinction risk in harsh and stochastic peripheral environments. As a result, while peripheral populations should not be dismissed as evolutionary dead-ends destined for local extinction, neither should they be uncritically granted inherently superior significance based only on their peripheral position alone.


2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (02) ◽  
pp. 259-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margarete Valverde Macedo ◽  
Vivian Flinte ◽  
Cristina de Oliveira Araujo ◽  
Luiz Felipe Lima da Silveira ◽  
Angela Machado Bouzan ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anwar Palash ◽  
Shatabdi Paul ◽  
Sabrina Karim Resha ◽  
Md Kawsar Khan

AbstractLepidoptera, butterflies and moths, are significant pollinators and ecosystem health indicators. Therefore, monitoring their diversity, distribution, and extinction risks are of critical importance. We aim to understand the drivers of the local extinction risks of the butterflies in Bangladesh. We conducted a systematic review to extract the diversity, distribution and local extinction risks of the butterflies of Bangladesh, and possible drivers of their extinction, e.g., body size, host plants and nectar plants. We updated the current checklist, which now consists of 463 species. We provided distribution and extinctions risk atlas showing both the diversity and extinction risks were highest in the eastern region of Bangladesh. We tested whether body size and host plants contribute to the local extinction risks of butterflies. We predicted butterflies with larger body size and fewer host plants and nectar plants would be in greater extinction risk. Accordingly, we showed that extinction risk was higher in larger butterflies than smaller butterflies, and in butterflies with a fewer number of host plants and nectar plants than the butterflies with higher number host plants. Our study highlights the contribution of body size and host plants as potential drivers of the local extinction risks of butterflies.


2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dorian Moro ◽  
Judy Dunlop ◽  
Matthew R. Williams

Context Projecting the population trajectory of endangered species using models requires conservation practitioners to evaluate how variations in life history parameters may change a population’s viability. This is particularly important for species that occur as fragmented populations and whose densities are naturally low. Simulations may be used to identify conservation actions that have a higher likelihood of reducing a species’ extinction risk. Aims The aim was to apply population viability models to the northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus) under alternative scenarios. Methods The current (baseline) northern quoll demographic trajectories were evaluated using field-collected data derived from monitoring programs. The impact of alternative scenarios of mortality (for example, due to increased predation by introduced predators) and population supplementation (either from populations elsewhere or from captive breeding) on the viability of a northern quoll population was then determined. Key results Under current conditions, individual Pilbara populations of northern quoll are projected to persist for over 20 years. However, these populations are sensitive to extinction events. Population growth rate and local extinction risk were most sensitive to changes in juvenile mortality as low as 5% per annum. Increased mortality of the juvenile age cohort above current levels resulted in a projected decline in population size of 22–54%, with a moderate-to-high chance (20–96%) of local extinction within 20 years. Supplementing the population produced a moderate increase in quoll persistence over this time period. Conclusions Populations of northern quolls in the Pilbara, and potentially elsewhere in their range, are highly sensitive to even small perturbations in juvenile mortality rates. The continued persistence of quoll populations in fragmented refuges is characteristic of a species that functions as a dynamic metapopulation in the face of high environmental perturbations. Implications Increased juvenile mortality above current levels – for example through the spread of cane toads or invasion of feral cats – may have serious implications for the persistence of the current network of northern quoll populations and other mammals that exhibit population fragmentation in arid environments. Estimates of survival rates for the juvenile cohort of quolls would improve diagnosis of a species’ population dynamics as well as inform practitioners of key life-history sensitivities.


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