Modelling foot-and-mouth disease transmission in a wild pig-domestic cattle ecosystem

2015 ◽  
Vol 93 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 4-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
MP Ward ◽  
MG Garner ◽  
BD Cowled
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Wild Pig

scholarly journals Manipulation of contact network structure and the impact on foot-and-mouth disease transmission

2018 ◽  
Vol 157 ◽  
pp. 8-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sibylle Mohr ◽  
Michael Deason ◽  
Mikhail Churakov ◽  
Thomas Doherty ◽  
Rowland R. Kao
Keyword(s):  
Network Structure ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 20190054 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberly Tsao ◽  
Stefan Sellman ◽  
Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson ◽  
Deedra J. Murrieta ◽  
Clayton Hallman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Control Actions ◽  
Demographic Heterogeneity ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Demographic Attributes ◽  
And Control

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a fast-spreading viral infection that can produce large and costly outbreaks in livestock populations. Transmission occurs at multiple spatial scales, as can the actions used to control outbreaks. The US cattle industry is spatially expansive, with heterogeneous distributions of animals and infrastructure. We have developed a model that incorporates the effects of scale for both disease transmission and control actions, applied here in simulating FMD outbreaks in US cattle. We simulated infection initiating in each of the 3049 counties in the contiguous US, 100 times per county. When initial infection was located in specific regions, large outbreaks were more likely to occur, driven by infrastructure and other demographic attributes such as premises clustering and number of cattle on premises. Sensitivity analyses suggest these attributes had more impact on outbreak metrics than the ranges of estimated disease parameter values. Additionally, although shipping accounted for a small percentage of overall transmission, areas receiving the most animal shipments tended to have other attributes that increase the probability of large outbreaks. The importance of including spatial and demographic heterogeneity in modelling outbreak trajectories and control actions is illustrated by specific regions consistently producing larger outbreaks than others.

scholarly journals The Effect of School Closure on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Transmission in Singapore: A Modeling Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (6) ◽  
pp. 1625-1632 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yirong Chen ◽  
Hishamuddin Badaruddin ◽  
Vernon J. Lee ◽  
Jeffery Cutter ◽  
Alex R. Cook
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Foot And Mouth

scholarly journals Failure of vaccination to prevent outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease

1996 ◽  
Vol 116 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-371 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. J. Woolhouse ◽  
D. T. Haydon ◽  
A. Pearson ◽  
R. P. Kitching
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Time Course ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Protective Antibodies ◽  
Cattle Herds

SUMMARYOutbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease persist in dairy cattle herds in Saudi Arabia despite revaccination at intervals of 4–6 months. Vaccine trials provide data on antibody responses following vaccination. Using this information we developed a mathematical model of the decay of protective antibodies with which we estimated the fraction of susceptible animals at a given time after vaccination. The model describes the data well, suggesting over 95% take with an antibody half-life of 43 days. Farm records provided data on the time course of five outbreaks. We applied a ‘SLIR’ epidemiological model to these data, fitting a single parameter representing disease transmission rate. The analysis provides estimates of the basic reproduction number,R0, which may exceed 70 in some cases. We conclude that the critical intervaccination interval which would provide herd immunity against FMDV is unrealistically short, especially for heterologous challenge. We suggest that it may not be possible to prevent foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks on these farms using currently available vaccines.

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