China's trilemma: monetary policy autonomy in an economy with a managed floating exchange rate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huiqing Li ◽  
Yixuan Xu ◽  
Ying Zhuang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Managed Floating

Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Stability

2010 ◽  
pp. 29-43
Author(s):  
S. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Managed Floating

The Bank of Russia intends to introduce inflation targeting policy and exchange rate free floating regime in three years. Exogenous shocks absorption which stabilizes the real sector of economy is usually considered to be one of the advantages of free floating exchange rate policy. However, our research based on the analysis of 25 world largest economies exchange rates and industrial production during the crisis of 2008-2009 does not confirm this hypothesis. The article also analyzes additional risks associated with free floating exchange rate regime in Russia and presents some arguments in favor of managed floating exchange rate regime.

scholarly journals Monetary security: some definitions and assessments

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-45
Author(s):  
Serhii KORABLIN ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Decisive Role ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Gradual Transformation

For almost 30 years of independence, Ukraine has experienced a number of deep economic, financial, banking, debt, currency and inflation crises. In some cases, they were extraordinary. As a result, the current real GDP of the country remains a third less than in 1990. One of the reasons for this was the unstable nature of economic recovery and currency price stabilization at the beginning of the zero years and in 2010-2013. After all, during the crises of 2008-2009 and 2014-2015, Ukraine set world anti-records due to falling its GDP up to 14.8 % and 15.8%, respectively. This was accompanied by the deep devaluation crises and the recurrence of uncontrolled inflation. In principle, the systemic relationship between the fragility of production, exchange rate and price dynamics appeared in Ukraine in the 1990s when its real GDP fell by 59%. The scale of that crisis was twice the scale of the Great Depression in the United States, accompanied by devastating devaluation and inflationary shocks. The article is devoted to the study of methodological and practical approaches to the definition of monetary security. The experience of their implementation in Ukraine is considered. The criteria of successful monetary policy applied within the neoliberal discourse are analyzed. The logic and reasons for their gradual transformation over the last 30 years are shown. The decisive role of the global crisis of 2008-2009 in the theoretical and practical changes observed in the world’s leading economies in terms of defining the goals, objectives and instruments of their monetary policy is reflected. An analysis of some outcomes of the implementation of domestic monetary strategy is given. The problematic nature of determining its priority goal is shown. The ambiguity of methods and consequences of targeted reduction of inflation in Ukraine is noted. The impossibility of maintaining its low and stable level under the conditions of free floating exchange rate of hryvnia is substantiated.

scholarly journals DAMPAK PENERAPAN BEA KELUAR KARET ALAM INDONESIA. SUATU ANALISIS SIMULASI

2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 36
Author(s):  
Sinung Hendratno
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Managed Floating

Pemerintah akan mendorong pengembangan industri barang jadi karet di dalam negeri. Salah satu upayanya adalah dengan merencanakan penerapan bea keluar karet. Tulisan ini akan menganalisis dampak dari penerapan bea keluar karet alam Indonesia. Analisis menggunakan data sekunder yang diperoleh dari berbagai sumber yang relevan dan hasil penelitian. Data dianalisis dengan menggunakan metode komparatif statik dan simulasi. Hasil analisis simulasi menunjukkan bahwa penerapan bea keluar karet akan menurunkan harga di tingkat perdagangan besar dan produsen (petani dan perusahaan) karet. Penerapan bea keluar karet juga berdampak pada: a) meningkatnya surplus konsumen industri barang jadi karet, b) menurunnya surplus produsen, c) menghasilkan penerimaan pemerintah, dan d) terjadi kerugian ekonomi bagi masyarakat perkaretan. Penerapan kebijakan bea keluar karet sebaiknya dilakukan bersama-sama dengan kebijakan lain (policy mixed) seperti: a) kebijakan perlindungan terhadap kesejahteraan produsen, b) kebijakan keamanan terhadap perdagangan ilegal bokar, c) kebijakan penyediaan bahan pendukung bagi industri barang jadi karet dan pengurangan/ penghapusan PPN bagi produk primer, dan d) kebijakan stabilisasi nilai tukar mata uang  (managed floating exchange rate). Diterima : 29 Maret 2012; Disetujui : 17 Juli 2012 How to Cite : Hendratno, S. (2012). Dampak penerapan bea keluar karet alam indonesia. Suatu analisis simulasi. Jurnal Penelitian Karet, 30(1), 36-45. Retrieved from http://ejournal.puslitkaret.co.id/index.php/jpk/article/view/120

scholarly journals Mexico’s Monetary Policy Framework Under a Floating Exchange Rate Regime

1999 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agustín G. Carstens ◽  
Alejandro M. Werner
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
European Monetary System ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Interesting Case ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy Framework

The currency and financial crises experienced by the European Monetary System in 1992, by Mexico in 1994-95 and the recent emerging market crisis of 1997-1999 have reignited the debate on the viable exchange rate regimes for small open economies and, in particular, for emerging markets. After more than four years with the floating exchange rate regime, the Mexican experience provides an interesting case of study for other emerging economies considering the possibility of moving towards a more flexible exchange rate regime. In this paper we provide an overview of the transition towards the floating exchange rate regime, the functioning of this system in Mexico, the current monetary policy framework and the behavior of the economy in recent years.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Analysis in Serbia

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vesna Martin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Main Regulator

Abstract The paper focuses on analysing monetary policy in Serbia. The National Bank of Serbia chose inflation targeting, which sets price stability as the main objective of monetary policy. To achieve this goal, the central bank uses different monetary policy instruments which analysis can provide us with the understanding of the main directions of their actions but also of the limitations of its application. Only through improvement of both instruments and monetary policy the central bank will create a better foundation for achieving monetary stability. In addition, the implementation of exchange rate policy is entrusted to the National Bank of Serbia, as the main regulator of the financial system. A mere use of managed floating exchange rate, as the chosen exchange rate regime, is an appropriate solution in the current economic circumstances and in accordance with the desired objective of monetary policy.

scholarly journals The Swiss National Bank’s fear of float

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-64
Author(s):  
Kristin Berthold ◽  
Georg Stadtmann
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
Relative Ppp ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Abstract We theoretically examine under which assumptions the impossible trinity holds. We also focus on the most recent Swiss experience and ask whether the SNB gained monetary independence by switching from a fixed to a floating exchange rate system in January 2015. The theoretical examination shows that the impossible trinity holds under the following assumptions: Equality of domestic and foreign real interest rates, the quantity theory of money holds, and that the relative PPP is fulfilled. The empirical analysis reveals that relative PPP does not hold for the Swiss case and it was necessary for the SNB to adopt its monetary policy in accordance with the ECB’s expansionary monetary policy. We show that for a small open economy, such as Switzerland, whether the central bank implements a fixed or a floating exchange rate system does not play a role in its monetary policy independence.

scholarly journals PENGENDALIAN MONETER DALAM SISTEM NILAI TUKAR YANG FLEKSIBEL (Konsiderasi kemungkinan penerapan inflation targeting di Indonesia)

2003 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
Wijoyo Santoso ◽  
Iskandar Simorangkir
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Aggregates ◽  
Supply Shock ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Managed Floating ◽  
Nominal Anchor

Beralihnya sistem nilai tukar rupiah dari sistem mengambang terkendali (managed floating exchange rate) ke sistem nilai tukar mengambang penuh (floating exchange rate) memberikan dampak terhadap kebijakan moneter di Indonesia. Nilai tukar yang sebelumnya digunakan sebagai salah satu nominal anchor dalam pencapaian sasaran akhir kebijakan moneter tidak berlangsung lama digunakan lagi. Sementara dengan semakin terbukanya perekonomian Indonesia, nilai tukar rupiah sangat rentan terhadap arus lalu lintas modal internasional yang bergerak sedemikian dinamis.Pasar keuangan yang berkembang pesat sebagai imbas keterbukaan tersebut telah mendorong ketidak stabilan permintaan akan uang sehingga telah mengurangi efektivitas kebijakan moneter dengan pendekatan kuantitas. Ketidakstabilan permintaan uang tersebut antara lain disebabkan pesatnya perkembangan produk-produk keuangan dan terjadinya decoupling antara sektor keuangan dan sektor riil dimana uang bukan hanya sebagai alat transaksi tetapi juga sebagai barang yang diperdagangkan.Pengujian empiris dengan menggunakan vector autoregression dan Granger causality test versi Hsiao menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan moneter dengan inflation targeting dapat digunakan di Indonesia khususnya setelah era sistem nilai tukar fleksibel. Pengendalian moneter dalam kerangka inflation targeting dapat dilakukan dengan menggunakan sukubunga PUAB overnight sebagai kandidat utama sasaran operasional dan MCI sebagai sasaran antara, sementara underlying inflation sebagai sasaran akhir tunggal.Sementara penggunaan MCI sebagai sasaran antara tidak dilakukan secara kaku (policy rules) tetapi dimungkinkan terjadinya discretionary policy sepanjang shock terhadap inflasi dan nilai tukar berasal dari supply shock dan bersifat sementara. Disamping itu, masih kuatnya hubungan langsung antara monetary aggregates dengan inflasi maka pengalihan kebijakan moneter dari quantity targeting ke price targeting bukan merupakan substitusi penuh. Monetary aggregates masih tetap digunakan sebagai variabel indikator untuk mendeteksi tekanan terhadap inflasi.

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