State Visits and Leader Survival

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matt Malis ◽  
Alastair Smith
Keyword(s):  
Leader Survival

Leader Survival and Cabinet Change

2011 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 345-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Quiroz Flores ◽  
Alastair Smith
Keyword(s):  
Leader Survival

Conquering and coercing: Nonviolent anti-regime protests and the pathways to democracy

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (5) ◽  
pp. 650-666 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nam Kyu Kim ◽  
Alex M Kroeger
Keyword(s):  
Indirect Effects ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Direct And Indirect Effects ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Leadership Change ◽  
Autocratic Regimes ◽  
Leader Survival ◽  
Empirical Analyses

Recent research finds an association between nonviolent protests and democratic transitions. However, existing scholarship either does not specify the pathways through which nonviolent protests bring about democratization or conduct systematic empirical analyses demonstrating that the specified pathways are operative. This article proposes four pathways through which nonviolent anti-regime protests encourage democratic transitions, emphasizing their ability to directly conquer or indirectly coerce such transitions. Most simply, they can conquer democratic reforms by directly overthrowing authoritarian regimes and installing democracies. They can also coerce democratic reforms through three additional pathways. Nonviolent anti-regime protests can coerce incumbent elites into democratic reforms by threatening the survival of authoritarian regimes. They also increase the likelihood of elite splits, which promote negotiated democratic reforms. Finally, they encourage leadership change within the existing authoritarian regime. Following leadership change, nonviolent movements remain mobilized and are able to coerce democratic concessions from the regime’s new leaders. Our within-regime analyses provide robust empirical support for each pathway. We show that nonviolent anti-regime protests conquer democratic reforms by ousting autocratic regimes and replacing them with democracies. Nonviolent anti-regime protests also coerce elites into democratic reforms by threatening regime and leader survival. These findings highlight the importance of protest goals and tactics and also that nonviolent anti-regime protests have both direct and indirect effects on democratization.

Economic Crisis, Natural Resources, and Irregular Leader Removal in Autocracies

2019 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 726-741
Author(s):  
Suthan Krishnarajan
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resources ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Direct Effect ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Iv Estimation ◽  
International Credit ◽  
Leader Survival ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractWhy do autocratic leaders escape revolution, coups, and assassination during times of economic crisis? I argue that the spike in natural resource revenues since the 1960s has increased autocratic crisis resilience. The availability of this alternative revenue stream provides autocratic leaders with a constant inflow of money, increases their ability to repress dissent, and improves their access to international credit. Extending the analysis back to 1875, I show that the relationship between economic crisis and irregular leader removal in autocracies is strong and robust before the 1960s, but disappears in more recent periods. Interaction analyses confirm that the effects of economic crisis are moderated by natural resource income. These findings are robust to an array of alternative specifications, including analyses that address endogeneity concerns via instrumental variable (IV) estimation. A more particular examination of the theoretical mechanisms also supports the argument. These findings challenge widely held beliefs in the literature of a strong, direct effect of economic crisis on autocratic leader survival; they explain why economic crisis seems to destabilize some autocrats, but not others.

scholarly journals Political leader survival: does competence matter?

Public Choice ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 166 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 113-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu Yu ◽  
Richard Jong-A-Pin
Keyword(s):  
Political Leader ◽  
Leader Survival

scholarly journals Hard Acts to Follow: Predecessor Effects on Party Leader Survival

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusaku Horiuchi ◽  
Matthew Laing ◽  
Paul 't Hart
Keyword(s):  
Party Leader ◽  
Leader Survival

Leader Survival, Sources of Political Insecurity, and International Conflict

2018 ◽  
Vol 72 (3) ◽  
pp. 596-609
Author(s):  
Matthew DiLorenzo
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
Conflict Behavior ◽  
International Conflicts ◽  
Conflict Initiation ◽  
Institutional Contexts ◽  
Leader Survival ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Do So

Recent research identifies the risk and consequences of losing office as important factors in leaders’ decisions to initiate international conflicts. This paper argues that the institutional source of a domestic threat to a leader should condition the relationship between political insecurity and international conflict. Specifically, existing theoretical mechanisms linking international conflict to security in office should not apply to threats that come from outside a leader’s selectorate. Natural disasters provide a convenient opportunity to test this argument since others have argued that disasters not only affect the risk that all types of leaders lose office but that they do so by creating threats that operate through different mechanisms in different domestic institutional contexts. I find that deaths from disasters are positively associated with conflict initiation among large-coalition leaders throughout the period of 1950 to 2007. I also find that neither disaster deaths nor events are related to conflict behavior for small-coalition leaders. In arguing that not all threats to leader survival matter for international conflict, the paper offers an important qualification to theories of leader survival and international conflict.

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