Forecasting realised volatility: a Markov switching approach with time‐varying transition probabilities

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (S2) ◽  
pp. 1947-1975 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xunxiao Wang ◽  
Keshab Shrestha ◽  
Qi Sun
Keyword(s):  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Realised Volatility

Optimal investment with time-varying transition probabilities for regime switching

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-115
Author(s):  
Hyo-Chan Lee ◽  
Seyoung Park ◽  
Jong Mun Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Regime Switching ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stochastic Nature ◽  
Optimal Thresholds

Abstract This study aims to generalize the following result of McDonald and Siegel (1986) on optimal investment: it is optimal for an investor to invest when project cash flows exceed a certain threshold. This study presents other results that refine or extend this one by integrating timing flexibility and changes in cash flows with time-varying transition probabilities for regime switching. This study emphasizes that optimal thresholds are either overvalued or undervalued in the absence of time-varying transition probabilities. Accordingly, the stochastic nature of transition probabilities has important implications to the search for optimal timing of investment.

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