The use of Triple Exponential Smoothing Method (Winter) in forecasting passenger of PT Kereta Api Indonesia with optimization alpha, beta, and gamma parameters

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wawan Setiawan ◽  
Enjun Juniati ◽  
Ida Farida
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Alpha Beta ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

scholarly journals TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: FORECASTING PERBANDINGAN PENUMPANG KERETA API DAN PESAWAT TERBANG

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 277
Author(s):  
Khoirin Azaro ◽  
Nur Indah Riwajanti ◽  
Anik Kusmintarti
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Efficient Planning ◽  
Exponential Method ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Airline Company

This research aims to predict the number of train and airplane passengers in 2020. Forecasting of train and airplane passengers is interest to analyze and estimate consumer demand to help the train or airline company prepare effective and efficient planning. This type of research is descriptive quantitative and uses data taken from the Indonesian Statistic Agency (BPS). Data were analyzed using Exponential smoothing Method. Train and airplane passenger data shows trend and seasonal patterns so that the exponential method used is Triple Exponential smoothing. The results of the study show that train passengers in 2020 are increase. While forecast results related to aircraft passengers in 2020 also tend to increase.

scholarly journals Forecasting of Groundwater Tax Revenue Using Single Exponential Smoothing Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 23006
Author(s):  
Dyna Marisa Khairina ◽  
Aqib Muaddam ◽  
Septya Maharani ◽  
Heliza Rahmania
Keyword(s):  
Reference Value ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Regional Office ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
The Government ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Single Exponential

Setting the target of groundwater tax revenues for the next year is an important thing for Kutai Kartanegara Regional Office of Revenue to maximize the regional income and accelerate regional development. Process of setting the target of groundwater tax revenue for the next year still using estimation only and not using a mathematical calculation method that can generate target reference value. If the realization of groundwater tax revenue is not approaching the target, the implementation of development in the Government of Kutai Kartanegara can be disrupted. The mathematical method commonly used to predict revenue value is the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method, which uses alpha constant value which is randomly selected for the calculation process. Forecasting of groundwater tax revenue for 2018 using groundwater tax revenue data from 2013 to 2017. Single Exponential Smoothing method using alpha constant value consists of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The forecasting error value of each alpha value is calculated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The best result is forecasting using alpha value 0.1 with MAPE error value was 45.868 and the best forecasting value of groundwater tax for 2018 is Rp 443.904.600,7192.

Research of Three-Exponential Smoothing Method in Tunnel Displacement Prediction

2012 ◽  
Vol 170-173 ◽  
pp. 1432-1436
Author(s):  
Dan Guang Pan ◽  
Ming Chao Yang
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Surrounding Rock ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Displacement Prediction ◽  
Practical Engineering ◽  
Measured Displacement ◽  
Tunnel Monitoring ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Surrounding Rock Deformation

Prediction of tunnel surrounding rock displacement is a hot topic. To accurately predict the displacement of tunnel surrounding, we put forward three exponential smoothing method and describe its basic theory. Based on the measured displacement of a tunnel monitoring sections in Northwest area, compared with traditional regression analysis and grey model as GM (1, 1) to predict the displacement, the results show that the average error and variance about prediction of displacement using three exponential smoothing method is minimum. This method is suitable for the prediction of tunnel surrounding rock deformation and can be applied to practical engineering.

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