A Model of Oil Price Forecasting Based on Autoregressive and Moving Average

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhou Mo ◽  
Han Tao
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Forecasting

scholarly journals Optimizing the monthly crude oil price forecasting accuracy via bagging ensemble models

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 127-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yumurtaci Aydo mu Hacer ◽  
Ekinci Aykut ◽  
Erdal Halil ◽  
Erdal Hamit
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Ensemble Models ◽  
Bagging Ensemble

scholarly journals A Research on Markov Model and Hidden Markov Model in Crude Oil Price Forecasting for PETRONAS Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (12S2) ◽  
pp. 121-125 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Markov Model ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Hidden Markov Model ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Hidden Markov ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Accurate Forecast

Crude oil price forecasting is an essential component of sustainable development of many countries as crude oil is an unavoidable product that exists on earth. In this paper, a model based on a hidden Markov model and Markov model for crude oil price forecasting was developed, and their relative performance was compared. Path analysis of Structural Equation Modelling was employed to model the effects of forecasted prices and the actual crude oil price to get the most accurate forecast. The key variables used to develop the models were monthly crude oil prices s from PETRONAS Malaysia. It was found that the hidden Markov model was more accurate than the Markov model in forecasting the crude oil price. The findings of this study show that the hidden Markov model is a potentially promising method of crude oil price forecasting that merit further study.

scholarly journals Oil Price Forecasting Using a Time-Varying Approach

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1403
Author(s):  
Lu-Tao Zhao ◽  
Shun-Gang Wang ◽  
Zhi-Gang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Trend Prediction ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Polynomial Decomposition

The international crude oil market plays an important role in the global economy. This paper uses a variable time window and the polynomial decomposition method to define the trend term of time series and proposes a crude oil price forecasting method based on time-varying trend decomposition to describe the changes in trends over time and forecast crude oil prices. First, to characterize the time-varying characteristics of crude oil price trends, the basic concepts of post-position intervals, pre-position intervals and time-varying windows are defined. Second, a crude oil price series is decomposed with a time-varying window to determine the best fitting results. The parameter vector is used as a time-varying trend. Then, to quantitatively describe the continuation of the time-varying trend, the concept of the trend threshold is defined, and a corresponding algorithm for selecting the trend threshold is given. Finally, through the predicted trend thresholds, the historical reference data are selected, and the time-varying trend is combined to complete the crude oil price forecast. Through empirical research, it is found that the time-varying trend prediction model proposed in this paper achieves a better prediction than several common models. These results can provide suggestions and references for investors in the international crude oil market to understand the trends of oil prices and improve their investment decisions.

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