Comparison study of crude oil price forecasting using generalized regression neural network and feed forward neural network

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kariyam Kariyam ◽  
Febby Anggraita Yuwinda P.
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Generalized Regression Neural Network ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Comparison Study ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Feed Forward Neural Network ◽  
Feed Forward ◽  
Generalized Regression

Risk of Voltage Collapse Using Multi-Layer Feed-Forward Neural Network and Generalized Regression Neural Network

2015 ◽  
Vol 793 ◽  
pp. 483-488
Author(s):  
N. Aminudin ◽  
Marayati Marsadek ◽  
N.M. Ramli ◽  
T.K.A. Rahman ◽  
N.M.M. Razali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Weather Condition ◽  
Generalized Regression Neural Network ◽  
Voltage Collapse ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Feed Forward ◽  
Feed Forward Network ◽  
Generalized Regression

The computation of security risk index in identifying the system’s condition is one of the major concerns in power system analysis. Traditional method of this assessment is highly time consuming and infeasible for direct on-line implementation. Thus, this paper presents the application of Multi-Layer Feed Forward Network (MLFFN) to perform the prediction of voltage collapse risk index due to the line outage occurrence. The proposed ANN model consider load at the load buses as well as weather condition at the transmission lines as the input. In realizing the effectiveness of the proposed method, the results are compared with Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) method. The results revealed that the MLFFN method shows a significant improvement over GRNN performance in terms of least error produced.

Forecasting Crude Oil price using Artificial Neural Network model

2021 ◽  
pp. 321-326
Author(s):  
Sivaprakash J. ◽  
Manu K. S.
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Back Propagation Algorithm ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Propagation Algorithm ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

In the advanced global economy, crude oil is a commodity that plays a major role in every economy. As Crude oil is highly traded commodity it is essential for the investors, analysts, economists to forecast the future spot price of the crude oil appropriately. In the last year the crude oil faced a historic fall during the pandemic and reached all time low, but will this situation last? There was analysis such as fundamental analysis, technical analysis and time series analyses which were carried out for predicting the movement of the oil prices but the accuracy in such prediction is still a question. Thus, it is necessary to identify better methods to forecast the crude oil prices. This study is an empirical study to forecast crude oil prices using the neural networks. This study consists of 13 input variables with one target variable. The data are divided in the ratio 70:30. The 70% data is used for training the network and 30% is used for testing. The feed forward and back propagation algorithm are used to predict the crude oil price. The neural network proved to be efficient in forecasting in the modern era. A simple neural network performs better than the time series models. The study found that back propagation algorithm performs better while predicting the crude oil price. Hence, ANN can be used by the investors, forecasters and for future researchers.

scholarly journals Optimizing the monthly crude oil price forecasting accuracy via bagging ensemble models

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 127-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yumurtaci Aydo mu Hacer ◽  
Ekinci Aykut ◽  
Erdal Halil ◽  
Erdal Hamit
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Ensemble Models ◽  
Bagging Ensemble

scholarly journals A Research on Markov Model and Hidden Markov Model in Crude Oil Price Forecasting for PETRONAS Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (12S2) ◽  
pp. 121-125 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Markov Model ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Hidden Markov Model ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Hidden Markov ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Accurate Forecast

Crude oil price forecasting is an essential component of sustainable development of many countries as crude oil is an unavoidable product that exists on earth. In this paper, a model based on a hidden Markov model and Markov model for crude oil price forecasting was developed, and their relative performance was compared. Path analysis of Structural Equation Modelling was employed to model the effects of forecasted prices and the actual crude oil price to get the most accurate forecast. The key variables used to develop the models were monthly crude oil prices s from PETRONAS Malaysia. It was found that the hidden Markov model was more accurate than the Markov model in forecasting the crude oil price. The findings of this study show that the hidden Markov model is a potentially promising method of crude oil price forecasting that merit further study.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document