Prediction of household food retail prices based on ARIMA Model

Purpose – the purpose of the article is to develop a model that could be used for estimating the level of the effect of the highlighted determinants on food retail prices. Research methodology – the study is based on the obtained monthly data of food retail prices that covers the period from 2016 I m. to 2018 XII m. (36 observations). Multiple regression modelling is used in order to create a model of food retail prices. Findings – the results provide evidence that the most influential determinants are the price of the alternative products and purchasing power. It also contributes to scholarly thinking, stating, that it is possible to predict the future retail price of a particular product. Research limitations – the limitation of the current study is that the proposed econometric model is sufficient for the Lithuanian market and ought to be modified if used in other countries. Practical implications – the development model allows to predict/forecast the food retail prices which are crucial for households budget planning. Originality/Value – the current study examines the main determinant of retail food prices. It laid a background for future researches, based on examining possibilities to forecast food prices. The research results contribute to classic economic views about market imperfections influence onto supply-demand equilibrium and unproductiveness of consumer illicit market.

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The Distribution of Food Retail Prices and the Euro Changeover: Signpost Items Versus Occasional Goods

Agribusiness ◽

10.1002/agr.21431 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 32 (1) ◽

pp. 93-112 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Karen J. Schroeder ◽

Angela Hoffmann ◽

Jens-Peter Loy

Keyword(s):

Food Retail ◽

Retail Prices ◽

Euro Changeover

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Comparing Household and Individual Measures of Access through a Food Environment Lens: What Household Food Opportunities Are Missed When Measuring Access to Food Retail at the Individual Level?

Annals of the American Association of Geographers ◽

10.1080/24694452.2021.1930513 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-21

Author(s):

Lindsey G. Smith ◽

Michael J. Widener ◽

Bochu Liu ◽

Steven Farber ◽

Leia M. Minaker ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Food Environment ◽

Food Retail ◽

Individual Level ◽

Household Food ◽

The Individual ◽

Access To Food

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The Effects of Significant International Sports Events on Hungarian Suicide Rates

Crisis ◽

10.1027/0227-5910/a000352 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 37 (2) ◽

pp. 148-154 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Karoly Bozsonyi ◽

Peter Osvath ◽

Sandor Fekete ◽

Lajos Bálint

Keyword(s):

Significant Relationship ◽

Olympic Games ◽

Arima Model ◽

Age Groups ◽

The Elderly ◽

Intervention Analysis ◽

Middle Aged ◽

Sports Events ◽

Sport Events ◽

The Olympic Games

Abstract. Background: Several studies found a significant relationship between important sport events and suicidal behavior. Aims: We set out to investigate whether there is a significant relationship between the raw suicide rate and the most important international sports events (Olympic Games, FIFA World Cup, UEFA European Championship) in such an achievement-oriented society as the Hungarian one, where these sport events receive great attention. Method: We examined suicide cases occurring over 15,706 days between January 1, 1970, and December 31, 2012 (43 years), separately for each gender. Because of the age-specific characteristics of suicide, the effects of these sport events were analyzed for the middle-aged (30–59 years old) and the elderly (over 60 years old) generations as well as for gender-specific population groups. The role of international sport events was examined with the help of time-series intervention analysis after cyclical and seasonal components were removed. Intervention analysis was based on the ARIMA model. Results: Our results showed that only the Olympic Games had a significant effect in the middle-aged population. Neither in the older male nor in any of the female age groups was a relationship between suicide and Olympic Games detected. Conclusion: The Olympic Games seem to decrease the rate of suicide among middle-aged men, slightly but significantly.

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