Proposal of lightning risk assessment method based on the lightning current probability function for railway power supply system

Author(s):  
Hitoshi Hayashiya ◽  
Masami Hino ◽  
Toru Murakami ◽  
Yoshihisa Nishimura ◽  
Masahiro Miwa ◽  
...  
2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 36-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Fortmann-Roe ◽  
Ryszarda Iwanejko ◽  
Włodzimierz Wójcik

Abstract System Dynamics is methodology for modeling and analyzing complex systems. Such systems can be characterized by interconnectedness and feedback. Applying risk assessment to the results of System Dynamics models is a challenge. Though in some cases the resulting time series data generated by a simulation may appear approximately random at a specific scale, there is often a high-degree of auto-correlation within the data series due to the deterministic nature of generation and feedback loops inherent in the system. This paper presents proposed Dynamic Risk Assessment Method (DRAM) that allows for the estimation of risk for system dynamics data series that appear to be approximately random. DRAM is based on standard risk assessment methods and is simple both to calculate and apply. In this article, the proposed method is applied to determine the risk connected with hypothetical costs of illness stemming from water supply system contamination with Cryptosporidium.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Zhang ◽  
Sujie Xing

Abstract Background:At present, the power supply market has always acquiesced to the rule of ‘use electricity first, pay later’,some electricity users may delay payment or even default on electricity bills due to various reasons, causing problems such as a long recovery period for electricity bills and difficulty in debt settlement. In order to reduce this kind of phenomenon, the power supply company must understand the user's historical electricity consumption data, capital status, credit status and other information, but the establishment of such a database requires a lot of time and human resource costs.Methods:Based on the distributed storage technology of blockchain, this paper abstracts power supply companies, power users, banking financial institutions, government regulatory agencies, etc. into nodes on the alliance chain.After that,this paper introduces a credit scoring model to judge the credit rating of user information based on characteristic indicators, and select the corresponding electricity fee recovery policy after the result is obtained, so as to reduce the operating risk of the power supply company.Results:This article combines the power and energy market with blockchain technology to establish a secure and distributed credit data blockchain, and at the same time establish a credit scoring model based on expert review questionnaire data. The analysis results show that this mechanism is suitable for credit data storage and sharing in energy transactions. Conclusions:Research and analysis indicate that the credit risk assessment method of electricity transaction data proposed in this article provides a theoretical basis for the combination of electricity transaction credit risk assessment and blockchain technology,which will help improve the company's ability to assess the risk of arrears and reduce the operating risk of power supply companies.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 44-50
Author(s):  
Kristina Berzina ◽  
◽  
Inga Zicmane ◽  
Tatjana Lomane ◽  
Sergey Gusev ◽  
...  

2014 ◽  
Vol 960-961 ◽  
pp. 1508-1511
Author(s):  
Qing Min Si ◽  
Xing Bai Zhang ◽  
Xue Ying Jiang ◽  
Lei Tian ◽  
Gong Xin Yu

Urban power supply system has close relationship with urban public safety. The main risk factors, accident types and the risk degree of failures or accidents in urban power supply system are analyzed. And, it has established the public safety risk assessment system of urban power supply system. In order to show that the assessment system has good applicability in the risk assessment of urban power supply system, the power supply system safety of one urban is assessed using established risk assessment system.


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