The research of medium and long-term power load combination forecasting method in national grid

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Fan
Keyword(s):  
Load Combination ◽  
Combination Forecasting ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Forecasting Method

scholarly journals Application of Combination Forecast Model in the Medium and Long Term Power Load Forecast

2012 ◽  
Vol 490-495 ◽  
pp. 1362-1366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ke Zhao ◽  
Lin Gan ◽  
Zhong Wang ◽  
Yan Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Combination Forecast ◽  
Combination Forecasting ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
High Prediction ◽  
Predicted Values

For seasonal and long-term power load forecasting problem, this paper presents an optimal combination forecasting method, which can optimize the combination of multiple predictive models. Optimize the combination of the two model predictions with two models as an example, which are the gray GM(1,1) model and linear regression model, and finally compare the predicted values of combination with the real values. The results show that: the combination forecasting method has a high prediction accuracy, and the error is very small.

A Combination Method for Mid-Long Term Power Load Simulation and Prediction

2013 ◽  
Vol 748 ◽  
pp. 498-501
Author(s):  
Dong Xiao Niu ◽  
Lei Lei Fan
Keyword(s):  
Entropy Method ◽  
Combination Method ◽  
Effect Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Indexes ◽  
Combination Forecasting ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Curve Similarity ◽  
Load Simulation ◽  
Cost Factors

In view of the singleness of effect evaluation indexes in combination forecasting, this paper considered both benefit factors and cost factors. The entropy method and the variance-covariance method are adopted to determine the relative importance of these indicators and to get the weight of each single model. This improved combination forecasting model took both prediction accuracy and curve similarity into consideration, which is more accurate and reliable.

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