Developing economies will struggle to rebound solidly
Significance Although the Fund upgraded its forecast for global growth this year to 6%, the recovery is becoming more uneven. Decisions were taken on global corporate tax, extended debt relief for developing states and a large disbursement of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Whether these measures are wide or deep enough to support lower-income countries is debatable. Impacts Led by the United States, support for corporate tax reform is rising, but benefits will not come soon enough for fiscally distressed states. The firm global recovery relies on China’s GDP gaining more than 8% and India’s more than 10%; India faces greater immediate downside risks. The economic outlook is brighter for developing nations with robust public finances and limited tourism reliance where COVID-19 is in check. COVAX delivery timings may be optimistic, and the WTO is unlikely to waive intellectual property rights to production capability transfers.