Moon’s legacy will last as his presidency winds down

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Korea ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
The Government

Significance Despite all this, his ruling Democratic Party (DP) has used its rare parliamentary majority to force through a raft of far-reaching legislation affecting politics, the economy and relations with North Korea. Impacts Labour and ‘fair economy’ legislation will increase costs for businesses. A third wave of COVID-19 -- the largest yet -- may finally force the government to impose a lockdown. Hopes that banning cross-border propaganda balloon launches by activists will lure Pyongyang back to engagement are unduly optimistic.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

Smuggling will weigh on Tunisian economy and politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Border Towns ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government

Significance Essid has been working to form a new coalition government since general elections in late December. The new unity government will face tremendous pressure to jumpstart the economy, ensure political stability, and counter growing security threats. One major challenge -- cross-border smuggling -- poses a particularly serious threat to the new government. Smuggling costs the government some 615 million dollars per year, representing nearly 5% of total tax revenues, and undermines legitimate trade, further damaging growth. Impacts If the government fails to address smuggling, it will continue to lose critical revenue. Yet cracking down on smuggling will probably meet with considerable opposition -- particularly in rural areas and border towns. The new government's lack of a decisive mandate will impede reforms.

Gabon's president will consolidate his power

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
African Union ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Government

Subject Gabonese constitutional controversy Significance The Gabonese parliament and senate, dominated by the ruling Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG), unanimously passed a revised constitution on January 10. The new constitution will reportedly not include term limits, while providing President Ali Bongo with immunity from future prosecution. The opposition, led by former African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson Jean Ping, has rejected the document and described it as a setback for democracy. Impacts The legislative elections could face a fourth postponement given the slow progress in poll preparations. The government could enter the Eurobond market once more after raising 200 million dollars in an oversubscribed August issue. Bongo's administration will likely prioritise domestic over external debtors as part of a broader plan to stimulate the economy.

Senegal’s crisis response may heighten tensions

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Sea ◽  
Crisis Response ◽  
Oil Exploration ◽  
School Students ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
The Government

Significance This comes despite increasing cases of COVID-19 cases nationwide, with the government forced this week to postpone the planned return of school students after ten teachers tested positive. Despite the relaxations, a state of emergency remains in place, which President Macky Sall appears to be using to his advantage to stifle dissent. Impacts Domestic concern will build over a possible third term bid by Sall. The country’s first exports of oil, originally scheduled for 2022, now face likely delays. Improving bilateral relations with neighbouring states bodes well for deep-sea, cross-border oil exploration.

Italian stability hinges on M5S future and Salvini

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Coalition ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Litmus Test

Subject Italian political outlook. Significance On January 26, Italy’s co-ruling Democratic Party (PD) defeated Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party by 51.4% to 43.6% in elections in Emilia Romagna, a prosperous region of northern Italy. In what was a litmus test for the fragile national coalition between PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S), the PD victory has reduced the risk of a government collapse. Impacts Risk-averse investors will remain cautious about Italy over the next year. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hopes the result will give the government the stability to cut taxes to boost private sector investment. Salvini’s support could decline if he continues to personalise the League’s election campaigns.

Macedonia's Gruevski may survive latest scandal

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Social Democratic Party ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Democratic ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
The Government

Significance Both had been in office since 2006, and Mijalkov was seen as indispensable for his control over the country. Along with Gruevski, both are heavily implicated in the wiretap scandal that Social Democratic Party of Macedonia (SDSM) leader Zoran Zaev has publicised since February. The opposition described the resignations as Gruevski panicking to postpone his own departure, and vowed to continue protests until he resigns. Impacts Macedonia continues to overflow with conspiracy theories about Kumanovo. It is unclear who may have been double-crossing whom -- the government or the 'terrorists' or both. The incident will play into fears of a Greater Albania project to unite all Albanian communities in the Balkans.

Kremlin wants 2018 Russian poll to give real mandate

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Liberal Democratic Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Narrative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Liberal Democratic ◽  
Fourth Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
One Year

Subject Kremlin strategy for the 2018 presidential election. Significance With one year to go before the 2018 presidential election, the Kremlin strategy that will frame the process is starting to take shape. The nature of Vladimir Putin’s campaign has a bearing on his fourth term, during which he must either identify a successor or engineer an extension of his tenure beyond 2024. Impacts Putin will rally populist sentiment on the back of foreign policy successes in Crimea and Syria. A possible rapprochement with the United States would restrict the national narrative of ‘Russia encircled’. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist candidates will criticise the government but will not run opposition campaigns.

Myanmar's ethnic troubles will pose security threats

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Ethnic Relations ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Race And Religion ◽  
Coordination Team

Subject Ethnic relations, politics and security in Myanmar. Significance Three developments are pushing ethnic relations to the forefront of Myanmar's domestic politics: the Muslim Rohingya/Bangladeshi migrant crisis, 'race and religion' laws and difficulties reaching a national ceasefire between armed ethnic groups represented by the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) and the government in Naypyidaw. With elections in November, and significant international concern, resolving these problems is paramount. Yet domestic political conditions constrain this, portending growing security risks and political difficulties ahead of November, and for the post-November government. Impacts The new ethnic negotiating team will bolster NCCT unity, but its renegotiation demands will slow the peace process. A probable NLD victory in November elections will not immediately resolve the Rohingya matter. China-Myanmar cross-border relations will improve, for now.

Nigeria’s neo-Biafrans will push renewed rights claims

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
50Th Anniversary ◽  
Sovereign State ◽  
Independent State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Islamic Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
North And South ◽  
Government Concessions ◽  
Do So

Significance As Nigeria marks the 50th anniversary of the start of its civil war -- when part of south-east Nigeria declared itself the independent state of Biafra -- President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration is facing the largest secessionist revival since the war concluded in 1970. Groups such as Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) have long limited their tactics to peaceful means. However, government repression is having a radicalising effect, with groups such as IPOB becoming more confrontational and new secessionist groups emerging. Impacts The government would struggle to function if ongoing mass protests combine with renewed insurgency north and south. The Islamic Movement in Nigeria organisation will watch the IPOB case for any government concessions they may also be able to extract. Nigeria’s five overwhelmingly Igbo states voted for the People’s Democratic Party in 2015 and could do so again in 2019.

Thai premier will ride out pandemic-related criticism

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Small Businesses ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movement ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Governmental Surveillance ◽  
The Government

Significance The move is ostensibly designed to strengthen Prayut’s ability to manage the country’s third wave of COVID-19 infections, but the government’s opponents fear that it will give the premier greater latitude to clamp down on dissent. A protest movement challenging Prayut’s administration and the monarchy has lost momentum in recent months. Impacts Plans to reopen popular tourist destinations under a special scheme will probably face delays due to the surging coronavirus caseload. The government will step up pandemic-related stimulus measures, including cash handouts for households and soft loans for small businesses. Prayut will likely use his new powers to increase governmental surveillance and censorship.

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