Kremlin wants 2018 Russian poll to give real mandate

Subject Kremlin strategy for the 2018 presidential election. Significance With one year to go before the 2018 presidential election, the Kremlin strategy that will frame the process is starting to take shape. The nature of Vladimir Putin’s campaign has a bearing on his fourth term, during which he must either identify a successor or engineer an extension of his tenure beyond 2024. Impacts Putin will rally populist sentiment on the back of foreign policy successes in Crimea and Syria. A possible rapprochement with the United States would restrict the national narrative of ‘Russia encircled’. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist candidates will criticise the government but will not run opposition campaigns.

Significance Turnout was low, but President Vladimir Putin and other officials have dismissed the significance of this. The new parliament will contain the same parties as its predecessor: United Russia, the Communist Party, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) and Just Russia. The liberal opposition failed to increase its low level of support. United Russia's success is a victory for Dmitry Medvedev, whose position as prime minister seems more secure than before. Impacts United Russia's three-quarters Duma majority will simplify the passage of constitutional amendments. This power may be used after the 2018 presidential election to remove limits on Putin's terms in office. The 50% of new Duma members who represent constituencies are liable to lobby for local interests. The low turnout suggests opposition-minded voters are demoralised or apathetic.


Significance Kishida's factional background within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suggests a dovish orientation towards China. Impacts A lacklustre LDP result in the general election would empower its junior coalition partner, the Komeito, to resist bold security reforms. Larger coast guard vessels and drones will enhance Japan's maritime security. Japan may decide to host intermediate-range missiles co-developed with the United States, to be deployed in Okinawa.


2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-22
Author(s):  
Michio Umeda

This article discusses the origin and continuity of the predominance of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japanese politics since the party’s formation in 1955. The LDP experienced two crises in its history, the first owing to the transformation of Japanese society by rapid economic development during the 1960–1970s, and the second due to the electoral reform in 1994 and the challenge from the Democratic Party of Japan thereafter. I argue that the LDP’s continuous success is attributable to its adaptability to new environments: the party overcame the first crisis by shifting the policy focus, reorganizing its support base and the party organization to achieve intraparty consensus. It coped with the second crisis by forming a coalition with the Clean Government Party and reforming the party’s presidential election and the ministerial post-allocation system. The article concludes with a summary and a brief discussion regarding the future of the LDP.


Subject The outlook for legislation and party politics ahead of the July upper house election. Significance Now in his fourth year as prime minister, Shinzo Abe enjoys strong public support and faces no serious challenger. In an upper house election in July, his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) hopes to capture enough seats to call a referendum on revising the constitution -- Abe's ultimate political aim. Impacts Abe will use Japan's hosting of the G7 summit in May to present himself as a world statesman. A new emphasis on welfare and social inclusion will not come at the expense of the LDP's traditional pro-business policies. TPP ratification is likely before May. With the voting age lowered for the first time to 18, the more socially progressive but less pacificist youth vote becomes more important.


Significance Khabarovsk is entering a third week of sustained protests following the arrest of regional governor Sergey Furgal. The Kremlin has not responded to this act of rebellion and has instead produced a hierarchical solution, installing a replacement governor with none of the skills needed in this explosive situation. Impacts The timing means that (barring a rule change) Khabarovsk's gubernatorial election is likely next year, not this. The protests in Khabarovsk and elsewhere may damage electoral support for United Russia in regional and parliamentary elections. A new law allowing voting over several days, initially in regional elections, will permit manipulation to keep United Russia's vote up. If the situation deteriorates, the president will shift the blame onto the Liberal Democratic Party.


2002 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven R. Reed

In the 1993 general election the Liberal Democratic Party lost power for the first time since it was founded in 1955. The coalition government that followed enacted the most far-reaching political reforms Japan has experienced since the American Occupation. The country has now experienced two elections since these reforms so we can begin to analyze trends and dynamics. It is now possible to make a preliminary evaluation of the effects of these reforms. I evaluate the reforms under three headings: (1) reducing the cost of elections and levels of corruption; (2) replacing candidate-centered with party-centered campaigns; and (3) moving toward a two-party system which would produce alternation in power between the parties of the government and the parties of the opposition. In conclude that, with some notable exceptions, the reforms are working well, about as well as should have been expected.


2021 ◽  
Vol 49 ◽  
pp. 71-89
Author(s):  
Fernando Ursine Braga Silva

In this contribution, I use the breakup – just short of the 2017 General Election – of Japan’s former second biggest political party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), as a case study so as to assess the practical implications of splits and realignments in the most relevant party split in Japan since the DPJ was ousted from government in 2012. First, I examine DPJ’s origin as an umbrella for ideologically diverse groups that opposed the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) – the government party in Japan throughout most of its post-war history, its tendency to factionalism, and the oftentimes damaging role the factional dynamics played in the party’s decision-making process throughout the years. In the case study, it is understood that the creation of the Party of Hope – a split from the LDP, and the salience of constitutional issues were exogenous factors particular to that election, which helped causing the DPJ split.


Significance The governing coalition led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) made gains, with the LDP itself now controlling exactly half the seats in the chamber. Parties in favour of revising Japan's Constitution captured the two-thirds supermajority necessary to call a referendum on the question for the first time ever. Impacts An economic stimulus package is likely soon. Parliamentary opposition to relocation of the US Futenma airbase has strengthened -- a setback for Japan-US relations. New foreign policy initiatives are likely in the near future. Cooperation among opposition parties paid off, and may become more common in future.


Subject The implications of Shinzo Abe's re-election for another term as party leader. Significance Shinzo Abe’s re-election to the post of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president on September 20 makes it likely that he will continue to serve as prime minister until September 2021. In November 2019 he will become the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history. Impacts Promotions to the new cabinet will give indications of who might run for party leader next time round. If Washington imposes tariffs, Japan will probably retaliate. Japan will try to strengthen relations with the other two members of the ‘Quad’ (India and Australia).


Subject A profile of Shigeru Ishiba. Significance Ishiba was runner-up to Abe in the 2012 leadership contest for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and since then has positioned himself to replace Abe as party leader and prime minister should Abe's popularity falter. A poll last month showed that 20.4% of the public wanted Ishiba as prime minister compared with Abe's 19.7%, a dramatic swing since December, when Abe had 34.5% and Ishiba just 10.9%. Impacts Security policy is Ishiba's strength; he has well-developed views and a good sense of what is realistic. Ishiba's critique of Abenomics is lucid, but he has yet to offer a clear alternative. Washington would likely welcome an Ishiba government since he has good connections in the US defence establishment. Ishiba's Christianity may also win him points in Washington.


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