Mexico projects will not drive post-pandemic recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Strategic Alliances ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
Exploration And Production ◽  
Term Energy

Significance The package of 39 projects, worth MXN297bn (USD14.5bn), aims to boost post-pandemic economic growth through privately funded investments or strategic alliances between private entities and state governments in infrastructure, energy and communications. Several government flagship infrastructure projects also receive increased resources in the proposed 2021 budget. Impacts The ARE will not solve Mexico’s long-term energy needs as it excludes major areas such as hydrocarbons exploration and production. The 190,000 jobs that the ARE may create will do little to offset the 2 million formal jobs lost due to the pandemic in March-August. Most of the employment that will be created by the ARE and government priority projects will be temporary, low-paid jobs. Concerns regarding contractual security under the current administration will continue to dampen investor confidence.

Skills shortage may hit Australia's post-COVID growth

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
General Election ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
General Increase ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Skills Shortage ◽  
Key Industries ◽  
Skills Shortages

Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.

West Africa ports compete for regional dominance

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Port Infrastructure ◽  
Port Expansion

Subject West Africa ports development. Significance Economic growth and rising trade volumes with Asian countries are straining West Africa's commercial port capacities. Various port infrastructure projects are underway as states compete to become shipping gateways for the region. Ever larger container ships are also forcing states to offer deeper water berth ports. Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria are leading the race. Impacts Low oil prices should not affect port expansion as the costs are borne by competing private sector operators. The question of whether the operator-driven port model delivers equivalent benefits to individual economies will grow as profits rise. European private sector port operators continue to dominate, but competition from Asian companies such as DP World is growing.

Portuguese coalition parties may clash over austerity

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Structural Funds ◽  
The Government

Significance This reflects the significant risks lying ahead for the government despite the European Council's decision on August 9 to waive fines for Portugal over its excessive budget deficit in 2015. Impacts The European Commission retains the possibility of suspending structural funds for Portugal. The decision to waive the fine could undermine the credibility of EU rules in the long term. Slower economic growth and the weak banking sector could lead to Portugal being downgraded by rating agencies.

Belarus will contest gas price as Russia's charms fade

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Lower Price ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Term Energy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gas Price

Subject Arguments about gas prices as a reflection of deteriorating relations. Significance Attempts by the Belarusian government to secure a lower price for gas imported from Russia have political undertones. The government is cautiously distancing itself from Moscow while signalling an openness to improved ties with the West. A long-term energy security programme adopted in December 2015 sets out steps towards diversifying fuel imports and would, if successful, undermine Russia's role as monopoly supplier. Impacts Reduced economic reliance on Russia is likely to be accompanied by greater political frictions. A worsening relationship could prompt Moscow to consider covertly undermining the Belarusian leadership. The government is unlikely to institute democratic and human rights reforms. This reluctance to change will be a constraint on closer EU ties.

Xi may push Party too far in asserting control

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Leadership Style ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Elite Politics ◽  
High Level ◽  
Party Congress

Subject Elite politics in China. Significance Former oil executive Jiang Jiemin was sentenced to 16 years on October 12, becoming the latest high-level casualty of President Xi Jinping's vigorous anti-corruption campaign. Jiang is a protege of Zhou Yongkang, the most senior Chinese politician ever to be jailed in post-Mao China. Ahead of a Party plenum set for October 26-29, Xi's campaign shows no sign of abating, and there are rumours of dissension at the top levels of politics. Impacts Xi's leadership style has already challenged many long-term conventions; he may challenge more. As the Party Congress approaches, the competition for the five top posts that become vacant will become an increasing priority. Slowing economic growth makes Xi's political strategy all the riskier.

Thailand’s junta will face new governing pressures

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Biometric Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
The Government

Significance This is an early move back towards elected politics following the mid-2014 military coup, and comes as recent corruption allegations, the possibility of a fifth cabinet reshuffle and concerns about the outlook for Thailand’s labour market are raising new questions about the NCPO government’s competence. This also comes as Thailand looks to a general election by November 2018 for which the NCPO may form a political party. Impacts Inadequacies in collecting biometric data for fisheries workers could draw renewed EU scrutiny and criticism. A cabinet reshuffle will not slow Thailand’s recent gains in economic growth. Media self-censorship means corruption allegations will likely not have a great negative impact on the government. Investor confidence is unlikely to be affected by corruption allegations in the short term.

Mexico power centralisation will bring heavy criticism

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Central Government ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Public Servants ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
State Capture

Subject Balance of powers in Mexico. Significance Since taking office last year, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and his National Renovation Movement (Morena) have taken several measures to make savings in the public sector and to allocate resources to tackling poverty and corruption. Such goals enjoy widespread support, but some of the mechanisms employed to achieve them are concentrating power with the central government. The areas most affected include constitutionally autonomous entities within the administration, other branches of government such as the judiciary, and state governments. Impacts Given the role of poorly paid public servants in state capture, salary cuts may prove counterproductive in fighting corruption. Without a system that impartially investigates, prosecutes and sanctions wrongdoing by public servants, corruption will not abate. Centralisation will strengthen the administration initially but leave it vulnerable in the long term when things do not work as intended.

US fiscal deal will not solve migration debate

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Illegal Immigration ◽  
The State ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Immigration Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Immigration Reforms ◽  
Security Enhancements ◽  
Comprehensive Immigration Reform

Significance The move follows the Senate's failure again yesterday to agree on spending priorities and immigration, the same policy disagreements which prevented a spending deal being passed by midnight on January 19. This has thrown the federal government into its first shutdown since 2013. Impacts Trump's support for "comprehensive immigration reform" may not hold. If US economic growth continues, this may push up illegal immigration, absent security enhancements. Challenges from the state governments over immigration reforms are possible. If Republicans are seen as anti-immigrant, gaining non-traditional constituencies' votes, including minorities, will be hard.

Bank caution will make Russian firms draw on own funds

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Mergers And Acquisitions ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Fixed Asset ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
Investment Rates ◽  
Growth Prospects

Subject Financing sources for Russian companies. Significance Low investment rates in the last three years have led to substantial fixed asset deterioration. Russian companies are trying to make better use of existing assets instead of renewing productive capacity, and the main source of investment is their own funds. Impacts As EU and US sanctions persist, Russia will strive to boost domestic capital markets. Prolonged low investment will restrict economic growth prospects for the medium-to-long term. Insufficient investment will limit productivity and undermine product competitiveness. Signs of economic recovery may boost mergers and acquisitions.

Mexico airport stunt brings long-term risks for AMLO

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Public Consultation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
International Airport ◽  
Public Consultations

Significance AMLO announced the project would be mothballed on October 29, following an ad hoc public consultation carried out between October 25 and 28. The new administration will instead seek to develop the capital’s existing international airport, linking it to the nearby Santa Lucia air base, which would be expanded to allow commercial flights to operate there. The plan also includes revamping an existing airport in Toluca (Mexico State). Impacts By relying on public consultations, AMLO will avoid responsibility for any controversial decisions. Business uncertainty looks set to be a problem under AMLO despite his initial promises of pragmatism. If he destroys investor confidence, AMLO will struggle to keep his campaign promises and redress social injustices.

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