Australia-US ties face some further difficulty

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Partner ◽  
Trump Administration ◽  
Security Alliance

Significance Morrison’s visit comes as the Trump administration pushes to build up partnerships with Indo-Pacific countries. Impacts US-Australian economic relations will remain strong, helped by a free-trade deal signed in 2005. Morrison’s refusal to be drawn into the crisis in US-Iran relations will strain the US-Australian security alliance. Australia’s main trade partner, China. will be irked if Morrison gets too close to Trump.

Trump may destabilise Korean Peninsula

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
North And South ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject US relations with North and South Korea under the incoming Trump administration. Significance The period of transition to Donald Trump's presidency in the United States has displayed neglect and misunderstanding of Korean peninsula affairs, adding to risks for the region as it approaches a period of significant strategic challenge. Impacts Until Trump's team enunciates policy on the Koreas, responses to events will be unprepared and reactive. Trump's policy will influence presidential elections in South Korea, where left-of-centre candidates question the value of the US alliance. The Trump administration’s policy and communication via Twitter heightens risk of misunderstanding within the region.

Australian push on India ties likely, but with hurdles

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Australian Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Diplomatic Relationship ◽  
Business Structure

Subject Australian policy thinking on India. Significance A blueprint submitted to the Australian government in April, titled 'An India Economic Strategy to 2035', calls for increased export shipments and investment in India through to 2035 and a closer strategic and diplomatic relationship. Impacts Economic relations will evolve slowly, as India is still developing a business structure attractive to foreign investment. Talks on a free trade agreement are unlikely to progress until India agrees to lower market barriers, especially high tariffs. India’s 700,000-strong diaspora in Australia will play a long-term role in connecting markets in the two countries.

Ageing workforce will dampen South Korea’s GDP outlook

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Us South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ageing Workforce ◽  
Pull Out ◽  
The Us ◽  
Net Export

Significance Year-on-year GDP growth was little changed at 2.7% in the first quarter after easing to 2.8% in 2015 and 2016 from an average of 3.7% in the five years to 2014. In 2016 consumer spending grew by less than 2.5%, machinery investment did not grow at all and net export volumes subtracted from growth. Impacts The US administration may threaten to pull out of the US-South Korea free-trade deal unless terms are renegotiated. Samsung in the first quarter of 2017 reported its best profits since 2013, but it will face an increasingly competitive market. Talk of reunification with North Korea as a solution to demographic pressures is fanciful.

Partners will struggle to save the Iran nuclear deal

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Dispute Settlement ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Dispute Settlement Mechanism ◽  
Nuclear Facilities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Partner

Significance Trump described the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as "defective at its core". Iran's compliance has repeatedly been verified, but the agreement has never operated as intended. Uncertainty over Washington's future commitment reduced economic benefits to Tehran and blocked Iran's reintegration into the global economy. Impacts Except for a few high-profile deals, Europe is eclipsed as an Iranian trade partner by China, which could gain from a JCPOA breakdown. A US or Israeli strike on Iran might target utility infrastructure rather than nuclear facilities, given the environmental risks. If Iran used the dispute settlement mechanism against the US violation, it could risk automatic 'snapback' of multilateral sanctions.

Thailand deepens China links as hedge against US ties

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
High Speed ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
High Speed Railway ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Strategic Imperative ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject Outlook for Thai-US-China relations. Significance Chatchai Thipsunaree, Thailand’s permanent secretary in the Ministry of Transport, confirmed on May 17 that construction of the long-awaited Thai-China high-speed railway will begin this year. The project reflects the growing momentum in Thailand’s relations with China, and refiguring of ties with the United States. Impacts Trump administration officials see less strategic imperative in the US-Thailand alliance than previous administrations. China’s growing presence in South-east Asia, particularly on the Mekong, will trigger resistance from affected populations in Thailand. Thai officials will allow Chinese infrastructure projects to proceed despite local protests.

Growing US Republican Taiwan focus may provoke Beijing

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance Separately, five Republican senators, led by Florida's Marco Rubio, wrote to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on February 7, requesting she invite Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen to address a joint Congress session. Impacts The proposed US-Taiwan free trade agreement is presently unlikely to advance. The Trump administration might be more willing than others to defend Taiwan, but relations with China will take priorty. Taiwan is exporting its political divisions to the United States; the main opposition Kuomintang will open a Washington office this year.

USMCA has pros and cons for Mexico

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mexico City ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Auto Industry ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Pros And Cons

Subject Implications of the USMCA. Significance Mexico’s Senate on December 12 ratified changes to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade (USMCA), agreed on December 10. Several important changes were signed by the three governments in Mexico City, altering the original agreement signed in November 2018. Mexico now awaits ratification of the final deal in Washington and Ottawa. If enacted, the accord will replace NAFTA, which has determined the rules of trade among the countries since 1994. Impacts What was initially framed as a political victory for AMLO may lose lustre as details emerge on the concessions granted by his government. Long-term auto industry investments in Mexico may suffer due to new stipulations on issues such as regional content and wages. After the USMCA is formally enacted, Trump will probably focus on seeking to reduce the US trade deficit with China.

US Democrats slowly nearing consensus on trade

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance Candidates ranged in their responses, from non-committal on their use of tariffs to criticism of President Donald Trump’s tariff use. The Democratic Party is in the midst of a debate about the direction of trade policy, including whether to pass the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and how to conduct and prioritise trade policy should their nominee win the presidency in November 2020. Impacts The House of Representatives may vote on the USMCA in coming months. If the House does not vote on the USMCA before December 2019, the next window would likely be November-December 2020. The Trump administration will try to show progress in trade talks with China before November 2020, hoping to gain votes.

South Korea-US alliance will weather Chinese pressure

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Partner

Significance Along with the stabbing of the US ambassador to Seoul by a South Korean activist earlier this month, sharp comments from a top US official about Seoul's 'Japan-bashing', and Seoul's potential membership of a new China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), this points to new tensions in key regional relationships. Impacts Seoul's foremost challenge, alongside Pyongyang and related, is navigating between its US ally and its neighbour and trade partner, China. Fear of Pyongyang, plus annoyance at Beijing's hectoring, mean that Seoul may agree to host a missile defence battery. Parlous Seoul-Tokyo relations seriously worry Washington, but Park's falling popularity makes it hard to reverse her unbending stance.

South-east Asia-US trade preferences debates beckon

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance The preferential US trade programme faces renewal or lapse by December 31. South-east Asia’s economies are structured to take advantage of the GSP and many of the products exported to the United States under GSP (such as light manufactures and seafood) are important for South-east Asia’s supply chains. Impacts Vietnam may make another application for inclusion in the US GSP programme. The more authoritarian South-east Asian countries could find it easier to gain US GSP preferences under Trump. The Trump administration could use the GSP as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations or renegotiations.

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