Partners will struggle to save the Iran nuclear deal

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Dispute Settlement ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Dispute Settlement Mechanism ◽  
Nuclear Facilities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Partner

Significance Trump described the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as "defective at its core". Iran's compliance has repeatedly been verified, but the agreement has never operated as intended. Uncertainty over Washington's future commitment reduced economic benefits to Tehran and blocked Iran's reintegration into the global economy. Impacts Except for a few high-profile deals, Europe is eclipsed as an Iranian trade partner by China, which could gain from a JCPOA breakdown. A US or Israeli strike on Iran might target utility infrastructure rather than nuclear facilities, given the environmental risks. If Iran used the dispute settlement mechanism against the US violation, it could risk automatic 'snapback' of multilateral sanctions.

The US crop insurance program and WTO disciplines

2016 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph William Glauber
Keyword(s):  
Dispute Settlement ◽  
Crop Insurance ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Agricultural Insurance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Insurance Program ◽  
The Us ◽  
Domestic Support ◽  
Green Box

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the US crop insurance programs in the context of domestic support disciplines under the World Trade Organization (WTO). Crop insurance has become an integral part of many domestic support programs, not just in developed countries, but in important emerging markets as well. An often-cited impetus for the growth in insurance program is the potential treatment of such programs as exempt from WTO reduction commitments. Design/methodology/approach – A detailed examination of the so-called “green box provisions” of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture is presented with particular emphasis on eligibility criteria for crop yield and revenue insurance programs. Findings – While WTO rules potentially shield green box policies from reduction, few developed countries have notified agricultural insurance policies under Annex 2. Moreover, crop insurance programs have been challenged in recent WTO dispute settlement cases and domestic countervailing duty investigations. Originality/value – The paper presents a unique perspective on a program which has become the largest single farm program in the USA.

scholarly journals When the hegemon goes rogue: leadership amid the US assault on the liberal trading order

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristen Hopewell
Keyword(s):  
Dispute Settlement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Leadership Role ◽  
Dispute Settlement Mechanism ◽  
Trading System ◽  
Lead System ◽  
Appellate Body ◽  
The Us ◽  
Multilateral Trading System ◽  
The Eu

Abstract Under President Trump, the United States abdicated its traditional leadership role in the trading system, abandoning multilateralism for aggressive unilateralism and launching an active assault on the World Trade Organization (WTO). Most strikingly, the US blocked appointments to the Appellate Body, jeopardizing the WTO's dispute settlement mechanism. With the trade regime in crisis, a key question has been whether other states would have the will and capacity to lead system-preserving initiatives. While most attention has focused on whether China—widely seen as the chief hegemonic challenger to the US—would assume the mantle of leadership, there has been considerable scepticism about the European Union's capacity to exercise leadership amid the crisis. The EU has generally been seen as punching below its weight in terms of leadership at the WTO. In this article, however, I argue that it is the EU, rather than China, that has taken the lead in advancing concrete initiatives directed at defending and maintaining the multilateral trading system. The EU led the creation of an interim appeals arrangement to replace the defunct Appellate Body—in effect, creating an ‘Appellate Body minus the US’. Although the rules-based multilateral trading system remains under threat, it is the EU, not China, that is acting as a system-preserving power, leading efforts to defend the established order.

Ottawa extends terrorist entity list to neo-fascists

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Business Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
White Supremacists ◽  
The Military ◽  
Radical Element

Significance Some MPs called for this action in the wake of the storming of the US Capitol last month, but the move has been considered for some time following concerns about extremism within the military. Impacts The growth of extremism is linked to a growing divide between conservative white rural areas and cosmopolitan cities. Separatist sentiment in the western provinces may develop a newly radical element from links to extremism. The business sector may face some disruption from an increase in protests and demonstrations. Canada’s reputation for welcoming immigrants could be damaged if there are high-profile incidents involving white supremacists.

Obama's push on nuclear arms control faces hurdles

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Arms Control ◽  
The United States ◽  
Nuclear Material ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nuclear Security ◽  
Nuclear Opacity ◽  
Nuclear Arms Control

Subject The US arms control agenda. Significance Despite having less than a year in office, President Barack Obama's administration is sustaining a high-profile arms control agenda in 2016. The administration wants to restore several damaged treaties with Russia, broaden Russia-China-US cooperation on various non-proliferation issues and leave Obama's successor a firm nuclear security architecture. Arms control is a consultative, long-term diplomatic process, and is susceptible to the political imperatives of more immediate regional crises. Impacts Tacit US support of Israeli nuclear opacity will undermine arms control efforts in the Middle East. Post-Obama arms control efforts are likely to focus on the security of nuclear material, rather than strategic arms reductions. Senate retirements will undermine US arms control advocacy in Congress. The United States will retain its nuclear arsenal indefinitely despite criticism from its allies.

Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Of China ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter. Significance Three threats are on the horizon. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might raise interest rates this year. This move, though well signalled, may have negative repercussions, especially in emerging markets (EMs). Secondly, China's economy, a key to global growth, is slowing and its financial markets are exceptionally volatile. These factors have already elicited policy interventions such as renminbi depreciation and further rate cuts by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Finally, there is no apparent end in sight to weak global demand and the fall in commodities prices that has left commodity-exporting countries struggling with precipitous drops in revenue.

Trump highlights pitfalls of election prediction

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Models ◽  
Analytical Quality ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
Election Prediction ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Winner Take All ◽  
Take All

Subject Elections analysis versus prediction. Significance The nomination of Donald Trump as the Republican Party's candidate for the US presidency raises questions for how analysts ought to respond to unlikely scenarios and how 'analysis' differs in its construction from prediction. His victory raises the question whether the low probability assigned by many observers to his chance of winning was accurate, and he nevertheless won due to the inherent volatility of primary politics, or if it was the result of fundamentally flawed modelling from the outset. Impacts Past elections suggest Republicans will face hurdles in the Midwest and Northeast against Clinton, but Trump argues he has unique appeal. Gauging analytical quality on the basis of a single high-profile event may encourage misleading deference to previously correct analysts. Including uncertainty levels is a key, but often neglected, part of creating sound predictive models. Threshold events, such as a 'winner-take-all' primary or 'first-past-the-post' election, can see minor shifts lead to outsized outcomes.

Brain drain negates remittances in Latin America

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mexican Families ◽  
The Us ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Money Transfers ◽  
Outward Migration

Subject The mixed impacts of outward migration. Significance Mexico saw a record inflow of money transfers in May and is set to register another year of fairly strong growth in family remittances in 2017. However, a report from the IMF on the economic impact of migration and remittances shows that while Mexico is benefiting on both fronts, other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are negatively affected. Impacts Increasing remittances will benefit millions of poor Mexican families at a time of sluggish growth and higher interest rates. Economic benefits of remittances will not be fully offset by the losses posed to some Caribbean countries by migrant outflows. The US labour market, and remittance- and immigration-related policy uncertainty, will be key drivers of remittances this year.

Trump threat will drive Mexico trade diversification

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Development Banks ◽  
Loan Growth ◽  
Two Sectors ◽  
Trade And Investment

Subject Mexican development banks. Significance Mexican foreign trade financing bank Banco de Comercio Exterior de Mexico (Bancomext) has signed several cooperation agreements this year in Asia and Europe, in an effort to diversify trade and investment relationships. The push comes amid great uncertainty in the global economy and increased tensions in the US-Mexico relationship since the election of US President Donald Trump. Impacts Bancomext's efforts to increase export opportunities will especially benefit smaller Mexican firms. Foreign financial institutions will welcome opportunities to strengthen access to Latin America’s second-largest economy. Strong loan growth by development banks will not threaten commercial banks as the two sectors work together.

Iran nuclear deal uncertainty may deter EU investors

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
National Interest ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Large Firms ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
The Us

Significance US President Donald Trump declined to certify on October 13 that continued sanctions relief for Iran under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is in the US national interest. Reintroducing nuclear-related sanctions targeting third-country companies doing business with Iran -- ‘secondary sanctions’ -- could have a significant impact on European investments in Iran. Impacts With financing a requirement for business engagement, banks’ hesitation to engage with Iran will curb European investments. Transatlantic sanctions policy coordination is likely to deteriorate further, with the private sector caught in the crossfire. High-value hydrocarbons and aircraft contracts may make investing in Iran worth the risk for large firms, but other sectors may not follow.

Prospects for the global economy in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Open Markets

Subject PROSPECTS 2018: Global economy Significance Global GDP growth is likely to edge higher in 2018 as trade, investment and employment expand. However, monetary policy is gradually tightening, fiscal expansion is limited and there is little chance of a repeat of the surprise boost from trade seen in 2017 or a recovery in productivity. Inflation may remain obdurately low in the United States, Japan and the euro-area but not sufficiently to deter the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB from gently reeling in their bond-buying programmes. Modestly higher commodity prices should support economic recovery in resource producers. Impacts The timing of elections in the United States, Canada and Mexico may prolong the NAFTA trade talks into 2019 or beyond. China will battle any US attempts to constrain its innovation and access to technology, which it sees as key to its rebalancing. Technological progress and more open markets exacerbate the unpredictability of jobs and wages, but policy will increasingly address this. Automation means the job intensive low-cost industrial growth engine is now less effective; developing countries must consider new models. A better balance of power between multinationals, international organisations and governments will be key to global tax cooperation.

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